This article is not intended as a prediction of disaster. But I believe we should not approach the campaign by being overconfident. Nor should we assume that Trump will be the opposing candidate. This list is an acknowledgement of some of the factors which may or may not be favorable toward an electoral victory for Biden. Listed in no particular order except the first one:
The Death of Reason and the National Media
When fascism infects a country reason, truth and logic are lost to large segments of the population. Mass ignorance and violence are at serious risk of breaking out at any time, which the fascist leadership often relies upon and rides to power.
The national media has been playing a part in the development of fascism in America today.
False Neutrality
And I’m not talking about Fox News and company. Corporate media not specifically tied to fascism has no interest beyond that of survival and profits. It is in deep denial of the fascist threat.
Exposing it might anger the irrational millions of its MAGA supporters and effect their bottom lines and subject their outlets to boycotts and even acts of sabotage and violence. The safest road, the owners and managers calculate, is both siderism and to see which side prevails.
If I had to choose one factor as the greatest and most dangerous factor Biden and the rest of us face, it would be this one.
The national media, like them or not, plays a major role in manipulating and influencing the masses. It is not yet clear how much they will be a factor in the outcome of the 2024 election. But their professed “neutrality” leans heavily to the advantage of the fascists.
White Racism, Supremacy and Nationalism:
While nothing new to America, Trump has succeeded in giving bigots a national public voice it never quite had.
It has always been the bedrock of the reactionary movements and Republican political strength. And it remains the major dividing line for the haves and have nots, and those who believe in democracy and human decency from those who do not.
It’s also the “barrier of ignorance” that has protected racism from the political kryptonite of change.
The Ghettos are Worse than Ever:
The poorest communities in America, popularly called the ghetto or the hood, still confine mostly African Americans. Sentencing them to live under the deadly reality of drugs, guns, homicides, low wage jobs, unemployment, police brutality and out of control, armed youth gangs.
Considering the wide voting support of African Americans for Democrats, the latter’s record of addressing the roots of generational poverty, unemployment rates gone through the roof, evaporation of family structures and the other problems mentioned above are seriously inadequate at best. 43% of Black workers earn less than $30,000 per year, highlighting how they are over represented in low-paying jobs. Whites families on average have roughly 8 times the wealth of black families.
The lack of action considering the long standing problem and deplorable crisis level conditions in these communities is a national embarrassment.
A Nationwide Housing Crisis:
We have seen decades of an unofficial policy, largely driven by Wall Street’s need for constant capital investment and expansion to maintain profits. Bigger than any single government project over the years, it’s generally referred to as gentrification.
Very little of it is new housing for lower income and moderate income people, pricing millions out of the cities where they have lived for decades if not longer. At one time in the post WWII years, many paid not more than, and often less then, 25% of their income for housing. Most today in our inner cities pay north of 50% or even much higher. The rising rents go along with more expensive stores for the necessities of life like food.
A more recent wave of out of control home owner costs and shortages has also hit better off workers and even segments of the middle class. Another, possibly worse housing crisis/crash than in 2008 may be on the horizon. Government has done precious little about the problem, which stems from a basically under regulated and mostly no longer subsidized housing market. There’s hope, but not much more, that the crash sure to come will not occur in 2024.
Aid to Ukraine in the War against Russia:
While supporting Ukraine against Russian imperialism is a justifiable cause, there remains great danger of escalation into a World War. And leads one to ask the question, “Why does money for wars and the Pentagon always seem to take precedence over issues like generational poverty, unemployment and social spending?
The Republicans will surely do all in their power to prevent aid in the coming months to Ukraine. Could be a major issue in 2024 and become either a plus or minus for Biden.
The Republican Demonizing of Government:
Large segments of the population have been persuaded as to the evils of the federal government and laid this belief at the feet of the Democratic Party. This trend has largely built the new right wing and fascist movements in America. Also has much to do with our history of racism as any aid to African Americans is immediately countered by Republicans claiming that whites are left out other picture by Democratic governments. They’ve been playing that song successfully for decades.
It represents a huge block of voters that are extremely unlikely to vote Democratic.
Age Bias Against Biden:
Both the corporate media and Eton Musk owned outlets like Twitter (aka X) promote age bias. They will do so almost daily up until election time.
This is a totally manufactured bunk. It has become, apparently, a concern dumped only on Biden, even though both Trump and Biden have long been seniors.
If you consider obesity and dementia as a cause of death, it makes Trump at a comparable if not at a greater risk of death while in office.
It is also a favorite tactic of Fox News and similar Republican tools.
Biden’s Approach to Trump and Fascism:
As best I can interpret it Biden has, for the most part, avoided a direct confrontational challenge to fascism, with the MAGAs and Trump. And has instead focused on governing, perhaps believing this will eventually carry the day.
I would mention one obstacle in this regard that I believe to be relevant, which was previously mentioned: American fascism reduced to its essence is an irrational and racist mass movement that has never responded historically to appeals to logic. So Biden needs a big turnout from those not under the thumb of Trumpism.
Some of Biden’s political moves and accomplishments have been brilliant. But perhaps lost on many voters that are daily fed biased reporting. Polls, while of questionable validity, reflect at least to some measure, problems which may really exist. Biden has long been stuck in the polls as much as Trump and I don’t think we can blame it all on the media and get anywhere.
Another reason may be that Biden does not want to start campaigning in earnest too soon. Whether that’s a good strategy or not given the fascist threat is up for grabs. It could work or leave him with little influence to combat whatever extra-legal and legal surprises the Republicans will attempt in 2024.
In the mean time, Trump babbles on. It seems that media bias, for whatever reasons, has made them avoid roasting Trump on the coals nearly as much as they could, which would be fairly easy to do. Which is probably connected with their desire to promote their ratings and both siderism tendencies, if not always their desire to see Trump and fascism win in 2024. In any case, they play a dangerous if not deadly game.
Only time will tell how effective Biden’s apparent “rope a dope” strategy will be come election time. Although I suspect things to heat up considerably next year.
Israel/Palestine War:
The U.S. gives Israel over three billion dollars each year. It uses this taxpayer supplied money in part to confine the millions of Palestinians in militarily occupied territories like convicts in huge outdoor prisons straight out of Orwell’s 1984.
Biden was too quick to offer Netanyahu, a born again fascist, what sounded like unconditional support and now finally seems to be taking some steps to curtail him. His previous statements were interpreted as a free pass to slaughter over ten thousand Palestinians since October 7th, mostly women and children under the age of 15, in Gaza in retaliation for Hamas’ murderous attacks killing over a thousand Israeli innocents.
Netanyahu himself helped cause this crisis by empowering but imprisoning Hamas at the same time. And by blockading Gaza and periodically bombing entire neighborhoods and surrounding the population with Orwellian-type surveillance. Creating 14 years of extreme misery and death, under which Hamas formulated their October 7th revenge massacres. Netanyahu hopes to erase his own responsibilities for triggering these latest episodes of war from the Israeli public’s mind with his contrived genocidal war.
Is it consistent with supporting democracy in America to then support fascism at the same time in Israel? That is undeniably the nature of Netanyahu’s rule over the Palestinians as he avoids trial for his crimes, just as Trump did for years. Look for the pro-Putin hypocritical Republicans to push hard on this issue.
Electoral College Bias:
There is, as we know, a tremendous bias inherent in how a president is elected. In recent years, the divide between urban and rural areas has deepened. As a result, a handful of battleground states have gained disproportionate power.
While Biden won an overwhelming victory in the national popular vote — the second largest in a 21st-century presidential contest — he barely eked out a victory in the Electoral College. It is very possible for a candidate to win by as much or more than 10 million votes and lose in the electoral college!
That is because electoral votes are not proportional to the number of votes for a given candidate, only to the existing state populations. It is one of the main obstacles to America becoming a fully functional democracy and a more progressive society.
Taking it to the Streets for Democracy?
During the days of the Vietnam War, probably an equally polarizing time, construction workers in NYC confronted student anti-war demonstrators and attacked and beat some of them up savagely in the Wall Street area in 1970. They were then invited to the White House by then Republican President Richard Nixon, cut from the same cloth as Trump.
Will masses of people be called upon to demonstrate peacefully for democracy in 2024? It is possible for Biden to win by millions of votes and lose in the biased electoral college vote, electing a man or party that committed treason in 2020.
Holding a massive rally in Washington D.C., perhaps in September could prove essential. To rally people around the country to vote for Biden and democracy and work to turn out a massive vote. I strongly suspect the Republicans via Trumpmay hold their own fascist rally as well. Which is guaranteed to get big press coverage.
Biden may publicly say that a fairly voted election in 2024 should decide the issue. But he also knows the handicaps a candidate faces in this regard. Every presidential election has built in bias in the form of the electoral college vote determining the outcome, not the actual popular vote. Not to mention voter suppression and gerrymandering biases. We must work hard to avoid a repeat of 2016.
What boosted Biden’s numbers in 2020 were the thousands of activist anti-Trump, Black Lives Matters demonstrations from all over the country. Enough to narrowly avoid a repeat of 2016.