One of Karl Marx’s most famous quotes boils down to “History repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the next time as farce.” The current Israel-Gaza war doesn’t quite fit that; it is even more tragic this time. But it was sadly predictable. As I diaried last week, Likud has been supporting Hamas for years, precisely because they are unreasonable, as a way to prevent a reasonable Palestinian faction from having a chance at peace. Neither Hamas nor Netanyahu could survive peace.
Now Israel is bombing Gaza to smithereens, civilians too, with the idiotic public statement that in doing so they could “destroy Hamas”. But that is not what they are actually doing. They are strengthening Hamas, by making more civilians into their own blood enemies.
I wrote two diaries about this in 2008 and 2009. The Hamas-Likud Axis said that the divide was not really between Israelis and Palestinians but between those who want peace and those who want war.
Peace and war have different constituencies. We see how Bush drummed up a war for what was supposed to be his own political advantage. In the Israel-Palestinian conflict, both sides are divided between those who want peace and those who want war. The problem is that it's easier to start a war than to make peace.
And in Nations don't cry "uncle", and nobody likes the schoolyard bully, I said (albeit in context of Bush and Iraq, but it applies here too) that bombing a country “shock and awe” style backfires:
But bullying nations doesn't work like bullying individuals. The dynamic is entirely different. When an individual is cowed by a bully, he may retreat, because it is in his own self-interest to not be beaten up again. A little humiliation is better than repeated humiliation and harm. But when a nation is bullied, individuals in that nation are directly harmed. The rest of the nation is rarely intimidated; instead the survivors become even more drawn to the fight. It's exactly the opposite reaction from the one-on-one schoolyard effect. It is militarily and strategically counterproductive.
I’m not generally one to repeat myself. But with history repeating itself, why write an all-new diary when my old ones still seem to apply? And in fact are borne out by current events.