Of all the MAGA Republican falsehoods, the claim that Trump generated a strong economy is simultaneously the most ridiculous and most widely-believed – including by Americans who would never vote MAGA.
At a campaign rally this month in Iowa, Trump said:
“We built the greatest economy in the history of the world. There’s never been an economy like we had ... By far, greater than now, and by far greater than at any other time.”
As we saw here yesterday, the opposite is true. Economic outcomes in 2018 and 2019 were poor as a result of multiple foolish early decisions. Then came the pandemic which Trump mismanaged appallingly, costing more than 1.2 million American lives.
Around half a million would have been saved had Trump responded more swiftly and followed the science. That mismanagement also wrecked the economy.
As yesterday’s graphs show, the USA had the worst outcomes of all 38 rich OECD countries on deficits and debt, and close to the worst on other variables. The USA was among the losers on GDP growth, wages, exports, tourism, industrial production and corruption.
Of all US presidents since 1952, Trump has the worst record on job losses, with 3,641,000 fewer Americans employed when he left than when he took office. Economists worldwide regard Trump’s economic management as close to the developed world’s worst. His policies caused two recessions.
The turnaround under Biden
The good news is that the current administration has rapidly corrected course with impressive early results.
This is significant for several reasons. First, it means 335 million Americans now enjoy greater prosperity and security. Second, people in other countries are benefiting greatly from the increased trade generated by a thriving USA. A quick glance at the blue chart, below, shows the surge in imports since Trump was ousted.
Third, a robust US economy today should help dispel the dangerous myth that the economy was functioning brilliantly during the Trump period.
Biden’s impressive growth numbers
All key indicators are now improving steadily. The latest figures are not the strongest historically, but what matters is that they are high on global rankings, and rising. This confirms decisions are right for the times.
Annual GDP growth at 3.0% for the third quarter ranks fourth in the OECD, behind only Israel, Mexico and Turkey. That’s up from outside the top twenty under Trump.
The jobless rate at 3.74% is back in the OECD’s top ten. Biden has already added 11,938,000 jobs since his inauguration. Inflation at 3.14% puts the USA in a group of nine in the benign band between 1.3% and 3.3%.
Christmas trade is setting new retail records. The Dow Jones index hit new highs last week, and business start-ups are at all-time highs. Wages rising at 5.74% put the USA among global leaders.
Private debt to GDP surged through the Trump years from 222.0% in 2017 to peak at an appalling 235.3% in 2020. This recovered substantially as soon as Trump was gone, down to 223.3% in 2021 and to 217.8% in 2022.
Tourism revenue peaked in March 2018 after 14 months of Trump’s racism and hate, then declined thereafter. Biden has tourism surging again, with revenue rising rapidly.
Clearly, the economy today is vastly better-managed than during the Trump years, and is arguably outperforming all presidential terms since Bill Clinton’s boom years.
More work to be done
Things are not yet completely back on track. Revenue is still too low, as a result of slashed corporate taxes. Hence the deficits are still too deep, and there is insufficient revenue for urgently-needed infrastructure, community services and poverty-alleviation.
Those deficits are still adding perilously to the debt. The sooner voters elect sensible lawmakers to Congress who will restore the pre-Trump tax settings the better.
Hope at Christmas
Most Americans do not know these facts. Recent opinion polls suggest Trump’s “best economy in the history of the world” lie is widely believed. So let’s hope 2024 brings sanity to economic and political reporting.
Meanwhile, wishing all readers a safe and happy season of faith celebrations and a successful and prosperous new year.
*
This is part two of an edited version of an article published yesterday in Independent Australia, available in full for free here:
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/trumps-greatest-economy-a-lie-that-could-end-americas-experiment,18183