Hurricanes get a lot of attention, but there are plenty of other weather phenomena that need to be watched. The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron is already gearing up for those missions.
Winter operations begin for 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE, Miss. 12-3-23 --
Before the hurricane season had even ended, the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron experienced their first taste of winter operations.
While they’re known for their mission supporting the National Hurricane Operations Plan which involves flying into – not around, not over – severe tropical systems to collect atmospheric data from June through November, the Air Force Reserve’s “Hurricane Hunter” unit does not hibernate for the winter.
From Nov. 1 to April 30, the squadron supports the National Winter Season Operations Plan, flying atmospheric river and winter storm atmospheric data collection missions off the West and East Coasts, providing valuable data to forecasters and researchers to improve forecasts and longer-term projections.
“Our winter operations began about two weeks ago when we went out to Alaska for our annual buoy drop missions over the Pacific,” said Capt. Jennie White, a 53rd WRS aerial reconnaissance weather officer. “We completed our buoy drop missions in partnership with the U.S. Navy and were also tasked to fly our first AR mission of the season as well.”
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Why use Hercules aircraft to go out and get this information? Think of them as mobile weather stations. A lot of the weather happens out over the oceans where weather stations are few and far between. The Hercules can stay aloft for hours and carry all kinds of equipment to get critical data in real time. They can be deployed away from Keesler to be closer to where weather of interest is shaping up. While weather satellites and ocean buoys can provide part of the picture, the Herks can go out and get details when and where needed. Other NOAA aircraft also fly important weather missions.
This is the time of year when weather patterns start sending large amounts of water towards the West Coast of North America. Sometimes called “the Pineapple Express”, Atmospheric River gives a better idea of just how much water is in the air, waiting to be dumped out over the land.
Atmospheric rivers consist of narrow bands of enhanced water vapor transport, typically along the boundaries between large areas of divergent surface air flow, including some frontal zones in association with extratropical cyclones that form over the oceans.[3][4][5][6] Pineapple Express storms are the most commonly represented and recognized type of atmospheric rivers; the name is due to the warm water vapor plumes originating over the Hawaiian tropics that follow various paths towards western North America, arriving at latitudes from California and the Pacific Northwest to British Columbia and even southeast Alaska.[7][8][9]
In some parts of the world, changes in atmospheric humidity and heat caused by climate change are expected to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme weather and flood events caused by atmospheric rivers. This is expected to be especially prominent in the Western United States and Canada.[10]
… Atmospheric rivers are typically several thousand kilometers long and only a few hundred kilometers wide, and a single one can carry a greater flux of water than Earth's largest river, the Amazon River.[4] There are typically 3–5 of these narrow plumes present within a hemisphere at any given time. These have been increasing[12] in intensity slightly over the past century.
This is vital information that forecasters need. In California for example, knowing how much rain might be heading in from the Pacific allows emergency planners to draw down reservoirs that might overtop with water and collapse. They can use it to plan for flooding and other related emergencies.
The Great Flood of 1862 saw the West Coast innundated by weeks of non-stop rain. Geologic evidence suggests such storms happen at roughly 100-200 year intervals. ARkStorm planning scenarios have been developed to get an idea of what might happen the next time one hits. As global warming puts more water vapor into the atmosphere, the risk from these storms is increasing.
ARkStorm 2.0 (2022 update)
This update,[7] with parts of the research on impacts still ongoing, has examined how climate change is expected to increase the risk of severe flooding from a hypothetical ARkStorm, with runoff 200 to 400% above historical values for the Sierra Nevada in part due to a decrease in the portion of precipitation that falls as snow, as well as an increase in the amount of water that storms can carry. The likelihood of the event outlined in the ARkStorm scenario is now once every 25-50 years, with projected economic losses of over $1 trillion (or more than five times that of Hurricane Katrina).[8]
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The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron flies other missions as needed, such as research flights into weather systems, and winter storms off the East Coast.
As the ARs continue to gain more attention from impacted citizens, forecasters, and scientists, the scope of the AR recon program continues to grow, and the latest example of that growth is an expanded area of responsibility for the 53rd WRS.
“In early January we will be conducting missions from Guam for two weeks,” said Lt. Col. Mark Withee, 53rd WRS navigator. “The intent is to reach these systems at their genesis in order to have a more data-driven understanding of the development and life cycle of atmospheric rivers.”
The AR recon program is just one facet of the unit’s winter operations, though.
“We also provide reconnaissance for winter storms,” said White. “We fly certain patterns in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic to provide a profile of the atmosphere that storms moving east will be rolling into. This helps better forecast nor’easters, which often impact heavily populated areas.”
One of the consequences of climate change is more storms, bigger storms, and storms that can build up faster. When Hurricane Otis struck Acapulco, it had blown up into a Category 5 storm in just a few hours. The role of aircraft like these and their supporting institutions is going to become far more important in the years ahead. The missions they fly gather information that affects hundreds of millions of people, and not just in the U.S. As the saying goes, this is your tax dollars at work.
Blessings on all those who fly these missions and those who support them in this holiday season and the rest of the year as well.