NPR is beating the drum for a new congressional push to create a “debt commission” to deal with the nation’s national debt, but the only debt they are talking about is social security. Let us be clear. The national debt is a problem but social security has not contributed one cent to it. If congress wants to have a commission to reduce the deficit so that we can eventually start to reduce or at least manage the national debt, social security should be off the table. The budget is in deficit and the debt is rising because we need to raise taxes to pay for the government we want, including a defense that can handle three simultaneous wars, something that looks very likely at this time, improved infrastructure, better educational opportunities, fundamental scientific research, and environmental preservation, including mitigating climate change.
Social security has its own problems which must be dealt with independently of the national debt or deficit. Social security has an independent funding stream that must never be used to subsidize the general fund. Social security taxes are regressive and are paid largely by lower income workers to ensure their wellbeing when they become old or ill. Workers overpaid social security tax since the last debt commission in 1983 and created a surplus in the trust fund to pay future benefits, which it has been paying. Although the social security tax is currently insufficient to pay in perpetuity benefits that are as generous as present benefits, the trust fund is still in surplus. In approximately a decade the surplus will be exhausted, but social security will still receive enough social security tax revenue to pay approximately 80% of benefits due. It is highly desirable to fix the anticipated social security revenue shortfall as possible. There are a number of ways to do that: mostly some combination of raising the tax slightly and gradually over the next decade, raising or removing the income cap, and maybe some reduction of benefits. See https://www.actuary.org/sites/default/files/2023-11/pension-brief-social-security-reform-sooner.pdf for more information on the options (hat tip angrybearblog). But do not be deceived. Under no circumstances will a social security fix reduce the budget deficit or the national debt. That can be done only by raising income taxes.