The death toll from a series of massive earthquakes that rolled through southeast Turkey on Feb. 6 now stands at 36,000. At least 4,000 more are dead across the border in Syria. Expectations are that these numbers will continue to climb, and may still double, before the final grim tally is complete.
On Sunday, The Wall Street Journal reported that assistance from around the world was arriving in Turkey, close on the heels of search and rescue teams from multiple nations. But the speed with which that aid was arriving in some areas, and the inefficiency of local officials was generating anger. In the wake of the quake, millions are homeless, and just like everywhere else in the northern hemisphere, it’s winter in Turkey. Without tents or shelters, many people are forced to sleep outdoors among the rubble of their former homes and surrounded by the bodies of those who were not recovered in an inadequate rescue effort. Broken highways, limited local airports, and disrupted rail lines all meant that aid had difficulty reaching some of the hardest-hit areas, and in some towns rescue teams didn’t arrive until it was far too late for many victims.
However, one part of the growing anger in Turkey comes from something that happened before the quakes hit. That’s because many of the buildings that collapsed were new. They were supposed to be built to standards that would have survived even this massive quake. Only they weren’t just damaged: They collapsed in a way that shows both corrupt officials and unscrupulous contractors evaded building codes in throwing up cheap, unsafe structures.
That corruption runs right to the top—to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. And there’s one city in Turkey that vividly illustrates the cost of corruption. Because the one place officials were honest, the difference can be measured in thousands of lives.
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The map above shows the location of the enormous 7.8 main earthquake and one of the aftershocks which, at 6.7 on the Richter scale, would otherwise have been considered a large, damaging quake all on its own. Just over 70 kilometers to the west are a line of cities along the Gulf of İskenderun. As NPR reports, many of these cities were heavily damaged during the quakes. Among these is the small city of Erzin, with a population just over 41,000. North of Erzin, the city of Osmaniye was heavily damaged. South of Erzin, the city of Iskenderun was heavily damaged.
But things are different in Erzin, and people believe that they know the reason.
Mayor Ökkeş Elmasoğlu is being given a lot of credit for saving thousands of lives in Erzin, and there’s no doubt he deserves praise. However, Erzin has only been in office since 2019. It’s a whole line of honest officials who held contractors to strict standards and are responsible for the miracle in Erzin.
Not every building that collapsed failed due to corruption and illegal practices. A 7.8 quake represents an absolutely incomprehensible release of energy. There’s no way that buildings could be expected to stand when the ground under them shifted by meters or flowed like liquid. However, most of the buildings that collapsed were many kilometers from the epicenter, and in locations where they absolutely could have survived had they been built according to earthquake codes.
So who let this happen? NPR has the direct evidence: Erdogan let this happen. The evidence is there on video, with the Turkish president praising some of the same contractors and building projects that collapsed in the disaster.
In one video, taken during a campaign stop ahead of Turkey's March 2019 local elections, Erdogan listed some of his government's top achievements — including new housing for the city of Kahramanmaras, also known as Maras, near the epicenter of last week's quake.
"We solved the problem of 144,156 citizens of Maras with zoning amnesty," Erdogan said.
What does “zoning amnesty” mean? It means that Erdogan allowed contracts “to ignore the safety codes that had been put on the books specifically to make apartment blocks, houses and office buildings more resistant to earthquakes.”
Those structures collapsed completely, pancaking into the ground during the quakes. The death toll in Maras is still not known.
As anger over both the response and the unsafe building increases, it’s very much worth noting that the area most affected by this quake is also the area that gave the heaviest support to Erdogan in the last election. Erdogan won that election with 52.6% of the national vote, but he carried those same areas around Osmaniye and Iskenderun and Erzin with over 70% of the local vote. Anger toward his government isn’t just growing, it’s growing in the area of Turkey he needs most to win reelection.
That election is coming soon. A “snap” presidential election is scheduled for June 23. That election was already considered to be competitive. Now it will be taking place against the background of fallen cities and videos of Erdogan bragging about how he allowed contractors to skimp on safety.
We're chatting with one of our favorite fellow election analysts on The Downballot, Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball. Kyle helped call races last year for CBS and gives us a rare window inside a TV network's election night decision desk, which literally has a big button to call control of the House—that no one got to press. Kyle also dives into his new race ratings for the 2024 Senate map, including why he thinks Joe Manchin's unlikely tight-rope act might finally come to an end.