It will affect the entire Earth because the north and south pole is something like a radiator of the Earth, the air conditioning system of the Earth. And the situation we observed indicates the air conditioner is not working well. Hiroshi Sumata
A new study warns that the climate models created by the United Nations IPCC are inaccurate and that the existing conditions will bring devastating changes to the world much faster and sooner than predicted.
Over the decades, the Arctic sea ice loss and Ocean warming indicate how fast temperatures will ruin everyone's day.
From the University of Gothenburg in Sweden:
Two recent scientific studies involving researchers from the University of Gothenburg compared the results of the climate models with actual observations. They concluded that the warming of the Arctic Ocean will proceed at a much faster rate than projected by the climate models.
"These climate models underestimate the consequences of climate change. In reality, the relatively warm waters in the Arctic regions are even warmer, and closer to the sea ice. Consequently, we believe that the Arctic sea ice will melt away faster than projected," explains Céline Heuzé, climatologist at the University of Gothenburg and lead author of one of the studies.
Warm water flows into the Arctic Ocean via Fram Strait between Greenland and Svalbard. However, the volume of water in these ocean currents and its temperature in the climate models are too low, which is one of the reasons why the climate models' projections will not be accurate. Even the stratification of the Arctic Ocean is incorrect. The researchers argue that since roughly half of the models project an increase and the other half a decrease in stratification, the consequences of global warming cannot be estimated accurately.
Sea ice thickness loss occurred in two big gobbles rather than a slow reduction over the years and decades.
From Seth Borenstein:
A little more than 15 years ago, sea ice quickly lost more than half its thickness, becoming weaker, more prone to melting and less likely to recover, according to the study that emphasizes the importance of two big "regime shifts" that changed the complexion of the Arctic.
Those big bites came in 2005 and 2007. Before then, Arctic sea ice was older and misshapen in a way that made it difficult to move out of the region. That helped the polar area act as the globe's air conditioner even in warmer summers. But now the ice is thinner, younger and easier to push out of the Arctic, putting that crucial cooling system at more risk, the study's lead author said.
Before 2007, 19% of the sea ice in the Arctic was at least 13 feet thick (4 meters)—taller than most elephants—but now only about 9.3% of ice is at least that thick. And the age of the ice has dropped by more than a third, from an average of 4.3 years to 2.7 years, according to the study in Wednesday's journal Nature.
Meanwhile, sea ice loss in the Okhotsk Sea is linked to Ocean-Atmospheric interactions in Japanese and Russian waters.
From the University of Tsukuba:
The Okhotsk Sea in the western Pacific Ocean, surrounded by Russia and Japan, is the southernmost sea in the world to freeze seasonally. The northwestern part of this shallow sea is an active sea-ice production area, but why the extent of sea ice varies year to year has remained a mystery.
At its greatest extent, the sea ice covered 90% of the sea. Generally, years could be classified as heavy or light sea-ice years. In heavy-ice years, there was a deepening of the Aleutian low (a semi-permanent, low-pressure system) and an accumulation of cold air. In light sea-ice years, southeasterly winds and warm air advection were associated with increases in extra-tropical cyclones off the Kamchatka Peninsula. There was also a weakening of the Aleutian low. These seasonal and annual changes in sea ice indicate that there may be a positive-feedback process between cold air masses associated with sea-ice anomalies and the Aleutian low.
"It appears that the sea ice has an insulating effect, which limits heat exchange between the atmosphere and the warmer ocean," explains Professor Mitsudera. "This insulating effect may play a role in the accumulation of cold air."
I posted a diary right before the great Daily Kos breakdown that President Biden had just approved the Willow Project in Alaska, an enormous carbon bomb that the UN IPCC warned would be catastrophic if approved. If I had checked to see if anyone else had posted it, I would have seen the excellent coverage by Meteor Blades he published. I would not have posted my diary.
My diary exposed some climate-denying trolls who were livid at the messenger and the reaction of Generation Z rather than approving a project that would release CO2 emissions compared to the emissions of 66 coal-burning plants into the atmosphere. It is critical we stop every single carbon molecule from ever reaching the atmosphere, as we are at the tipping point of climate disaster. Then we must figure out how to remove the excess carbon from the atmosphere and bury it in the ground.
That diary would be my last at Daily Kos, but that kind of reception pissed me off and changed my mind. These trolls strengthened my resolve to continue to educate the activists at Daily Kos if they were willing to learn about the crisis and inform their friends and neighbors about the danger to civilization and why we need to act immediately to avoid some of the worst impacts from global heating. If we can prevent every tenth of a degree of warming, perhaps some of what remains could be saved.
Particular livid trolls were incensed that I dared mention how Biden’s approval would not be well received by climate activists or generation Z.
Here is a comment that scurrilously called me a Fascist:
"Perception is everything” is an awfully fascist thing to say. TRUTH is everything.
The reality is that this adds practically nothing to the US carbon budget. Hyperbole aside, it’s not a good thing to do, but it isn’t “game ending” or even a “nail in the coffin” in the grand scheme of current climate catastrophe. Do the damn math. This is less than 20 million barrels a year. Current drilling in the US is 12 million barrels a day. Refining is like 18 million a day. This is the equivalent of less than half a percent.
I don't know why they did it, but usually the way these things work is previous commitments from the US government that would bring legal challenges over economics and contracts. Allowing it to go to legal challenges from the other side may be the better way to go.
If the usual suspects could stop with the bothsiderisms, it would be great. If the kids want to finally come out and vote, they could actually give the Democrats enough power to steam roll a democratic agenda through, instead forcing negotiations with Manchin and Sinema.
Burning that much carbon is not a big deal, wrote another:
Let’s put this in context. The world currently consumes 91 million barrels of oil per day. This oil field will thus produce a week’s worth of oil over its entire life. And that’s assuming it will be productive over its entire perspective life.
In the grand scale, this won’t have much of an impact. Converting our postal service’s fleet of delivery vehicles to electric, however, will. The Inflation Reduction Act will have a far greater positive long term effect.
Here is another deluded climate troll grasping at straws:
Good grief, what nonsense. Willow displaces imports, it doesn’t increase consumption. Really, one on the most poorly informed pieces I’ve ever seen.
This one thought mocking, deriding, and ridiculing a young climate and Democratic activist was clever. Tucker Carlson or the Koch Brothers could not have stated the fossil fuel propaganda any better. I’m surprised they didn’t attack Al Gore for his large house or khakis.
The enraged kid filmed his rebuttal in his car. Just saying
This is the kid. Will he vote in 2024? I hope so. I am not a single-issue voter, and I hope he will be the same.
Incrementalism is best:
Ahem —
You know, the Dems would’ve done way worse in 2022 if gas prices hadn’t come down.
And the reality is that not only do 90% of Americans depend on their cars,
but a large portion of those people — many of whom vote —
really, really like cars.
Biden’s decision was clearly a political compromise.
And climates activists do not understand the concept of compromise.
Which is why green activists are usually lousy politicians.
But, unless you have a green dictatorship — the preferred route of eco-authoritarians —
you aren’t going to get to first base.
Here’s an online ad that writes itself for the RNC:
Cars cruising up and down on Graffiti Night in Modesto.
Stoplight at McHenry & Orangeburg where protesters are gathering.
They yell at young people in low-riders and hot rods,
”You’re killing the planet! Car-free by ‘33 !!”
As the light turns green a young woman in a convertible shouts back,
“Chingate!”
There were many more trollish comments, but the DK system crash and recovery did not include those. They were particularly vicious.
And finally, from my not-so-witty racist climate change-denying stalker:
I’ll take a carbon bong
Since I could not reply, I decided to share. I might add MB’s diary did not have the same abuse as I had. They had better not go after him; he is a Daily Kos rock star with a stellar record of climate activism.
My point is. I’m staying and sharing climate science which no one else does in the media.