This isn't written primarily for the active users here on Daily Kos. Almost everybody here understands this. Still, I think it's worth repeating because this is one of the most important events in the history of this country and so one of the most important events in the history of the world. Does that sound like I am boosting its importance beyond what it really has. America is the one super power in the world. Our military is in over 80 countries. Our universities are some of the best in the world. We have invented some of the most important things in the world. We have some of the best scientists in the world. A coup here would make more of a difference in the world than in any other country in the world.
Most of my degrees are in mathematics, but I do have a degree in political science, economics, and history. That means I know just enough to be dangerous and dangerously stupid. There are experts here who have forgotten more about our government and the Constitution than I will ever know. I have made every effort to be accurate.
The importance of the insurrection, the attack on the Capitol, is not because an important building was assaulted. It's not even because important people in our federal government were in danger of being taken hostage and murdered. It's not because many brave Capitol police officers were murdered and injured. The reason why this event is so important is because of the event prescribed by the Constitution that was taking place that day and the intended goal of the insurrection. That's why the insurrection was and is and forever will be so important.
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Unfortunately, the winner of the presidential election is determined not by the winner of the popular vote, but rather by the winner of the electoral college. That's bad because it diminishes the power of the vote of people of color and it results in presidential candidates only spending time campaigning in a handful of swing states. So, how does this work? The presidential candidate who wins a state's popular vote is awarded all of its electoral college votes; they are NOT awarded proportionally.
How is the number of electoral college votes a state has determined? You add the number of US representatives the state has to the number of US senators the state has to find the number of electoral college votes a state has.
Electoral college votes
www.google.com/...
Each state is assigned a number of electors equal to its two Senate seats plus the number of seats in the House of Representatives. Per the 23rd Amendment, the District of Columbia is allotted three electoral votes.
For most states, a recount is automatically triggered if the margin of victory by the winner is within a certain percentage, often .25%. If it is within that automatic trigger, then neither candidate must pay for it. There is usually another recount the losing candidate can pay for if the margin is within a slightly larger percentage, usually .5%.
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What are the outcomes for recounts? Do they change the outcome, meaning the winner, very often?
No.
en.wikipedia.org/...
In the United States recounts rarely reverse election results. Of the 4,687 statewide general elections held from 2000 to 2015, 27 were followed by a recount, and only three resulted in a change of outcome from the original count: 2004 Washington gubernatorial election, 2006 Vermont Auditor of Accounts election, and 2008 United States Senate election in Minnesota.[25] Recounts are conducted at the state level rather than the federal level, even for federal offices.
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2004 gubernatorial election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Washington_gubernatorial_election
Exhibition 1
The initial result, as reported by Secretary of State Sam Reed, showed Rossi with a lead of 261 votes, well within the margin for an automatic machine recount pursuant to Washington state law (less than 0.5% and less than 2,000 votes). After a statewide recount completed on November 24, Rossi again came away with the lead, this time by 42 votes.[12]
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Exhibition 2:
Vermont Auditor of Accounts election
www.nytimes.com/…
A judge has overturned the results of the state auditor’s race after a recount determined that the votes were miscounted. Thomas M. Salmon, a Democrat, was declared the winner by 102 votes over the incumbent, Randy Brock, a Republican. Mr. Salmon was thought to have lost the election by 137 votes, and asked a superior court judge for a recount, which began Dec. 4. Secretary of State Deborah L. Markowitz, who certified the results, said 388 votes that should have been counted for Mr. Salmon were not. Most were accidentally given to a third-party candidate, Ms. Markowitz said.
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Exhibition 3
2008 US Senate Minnesota election
When the initial count was completed on November 18, Franken was trailing Coleman by 215 votes.[2][3] The close margin triggered a mandatory recount.[4][5] After reviewing ballots that had been challenged during the recount and counting 953 wrongly rejected absentee ballots, the State Canvassing Board officially certified the recount results with Franken holding a 225-vote lead.[6][7][8]
On January 6, 2009, Coleman's campaign filed an election contest and on April 13, a three-judge panel dismissed Coleman's Notice of Contest and ruled that Franken had won the election by 312 votes.[9][10]
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All 3 statewide elections that saw a change in the outcome, a change in who won, had margins less than 300 votes. Using something similar to Dijkstra's algorithm, the fewest amount of states necessary to overturn the outcome of the 2020 presidential election is three by choosing Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. If those three states went from Biden to Trump, then the electoral college vote would be a tie, 269-269. This would result in a tie, resulting in the winner being the party's candidate who holds the most state delegates in the House of Representatives. To make this more clear, here's an example. Let's take the state of Georgia. Let's say say that Georgia has 16 electoral college votes. Then it has 14 US representatives. The question would be which party has a majority among the 14 US representatives. Whichever party did would win that state's electoral college votes. We would do this for all 50 states. At that time, this tiebreaker would have been won by Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
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So, after the initial counting of the votes, the administrators of the elections, the Secretary of State or some other election administrator, would determine if the margin of victory was within the state's automatic recount trigger and investigate any alleged irregularities to determine if there was any evidence to back the claims. As noted above, in states where the margin was within the automatic recount trigger, then a recount was performed at the state's expense. In Wisconsin, the margin was greater than the automatic recount trigger but within the margin within which the losing candidate can at their own expense request a recount. In all of these cases, the recounts did not alter the outcome; these recounts did not alter who won.
Arizona
en.wikipedia.org/...
By November 7, hand count audits had been completed in Cochrise, Coconino, Grenlee, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pima, Pinal, Santa Cruz, and Yavapai counties in order to test the accuracy of the voting tabulation equipment. Each of these county hand count audits either found there to be no discrepancies, or found their count to be within the acceptable margins of error identified by state election law.[106]
While Maricopa County's November 4 hand count audit had found no discrepancies,[106] an additional physical hand recount of 47,000 ballots (2% of election-day ballots plus 5,000 early voting ballots) was conducted in Maricopa County from November 7 through November 9, 2020, which again found no discrepancies.[107][108][109]
On November 24, 2020, Governor Doug Ducey acknowledged that Biden won the state.[110]
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Georgia
www.google.com/...
Nov 19, 2020 — Georgia must certify its election results Friday by state law, which required an audit be conducted before votes arecertified. The full hand recount of the 2020 Georgia presidential election was completed on Thursday, November 19. Thus, the certification had to be completed by the day after the full hand recount of the 2020 Georgia presidential election was finished.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/07/politics/georgia-recount-recertification-biden/index.html
Georgia reaffirms Biden’s victory for 3rd time after recount, dealing major blow to Trump’s attempt to overturn the results
By Chandelis Duster, CNN
Wisconsin
www.washingtonpost.com/...
After the completion of the recount in Wisconsin’s Milwaukee County on Friday and Dane County on Sunday, there was little change in the final breakdown of the more than 800,000 ballots that had been cast in the two jurisdictions. In the end, Biden’s lead over Trump in the state grew by 87 votes.
Under Wisconsin law, Trump was required to foot the bill — meaning his campaign paid $3 million, only to see Biden widen his margin.
Danielle Melfi, the Wisconsin state director of the Biden campaign, said in a statement that local boards of canvassers had “resoundingly rejected — often on a bipartisan basis — the Trump campaign’s baseless attempts to disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of Wisconsinites who simply followed the law when they voted. And despite repeated incendiary accusations, there was no evidence of fraud whatsoever.”
Nevada
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/technology/no-trump-did-not-win-in-nevada.amp.html&ved=2ahUKEwixx4fnwtn9AhVpl2oFHYFZDrAQFnoECCwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw11XGtRtxuq54OOMIfG4XlK
Nov 17, 2020 — President Trump claimed that there was “large scale voter discrepancy” in Clark County, Nev. A review of votes there showed the contrary.
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https://m.lasvegassun.com/news/2022/jul/28/2020-election-lost-not-stolen-political-conservati/
Inaccuracies in voting machines. Discrepancies in ballot tracking. Failing to give poll observers adequate access to ballot counting. Democrats bribing voters.
Those are claims former President Donald Trump and his allies pushed forward as evidence of voter fraud in Nevada during the 2020 presidential election.
Those claims were dismissed by judges in Nevada, and an unofficial group of political conservatives reiterated the findings in those lawsuits in a 72-page report released this month summarizing its investigations into every claim of election fraud presented by Trump and his supporters, presenting a case that the 2020 election was not stolen.
“Lost, Not Stolen: The Conservative Case that Trump Lost and Biden Won the 2020 Presidential Election” included reports about each of the battleground states where Trump alleged fraud, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and examined each claim of election fraud.
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After the recounts and investigations into any alleged irregularities were completed, then the states certified their elections. On the first Monday after the first two Wednesdays in December, the states having certified their elections, the electors meet at the state capitols.
When we vote for our candidate for president, we are not voting directly for our candidate, but rather for a slate of electors. These are people chosen by party leaders, people known to be loyal to their political party. So, as an example, Joe Biden won Georgia. Because he won Georgia, his slate of electors goes to the state capitol in Georgia.
Now, in some states the elector is by law (this may or may not be constitutional) required to vote for their party's nominee for president. In most states, the elector could vote for somebody other than their party's nominee for president. This is relatively rare, but it has happened. It happens usually with a very controversial nominee and one or more of the electors really dislikes the nominee. The electors state who they vote for at the state capitol or wherever the state legislature has chosen.
After that, the electors meet in Washington DC at the Capitol on January 6th, a day written in the US Constitution. Then in front of Congress, the votes for each nominee for president and vice president are counted.
Congress is allowed to object to counting a state's electoral college votes. If the objection to counting the electoral college votes of a state only come from members of one chamber of Congress and not both, then the objection is merely oral and it is heard, but nothing ends up happening due to an oral objection to counting the electoral college votes of the state. If there are members of each chamber of Congress who support an objection to counting the electoral college votes of a state, then the objection is written. If a majority of each chamber supports a written objection to counting the electoral college votes of a state, then this likely goes to the Supreme Court because the state certified their election, but Congress opposed it. Who is to prevail? Likely the state would prevail, but it is not certain. Donald Trump believed that his legal team would prevail because the majority of the justices of the Supreme Court were nominated by republican presidents and three of them were nominated by him. He believes this because he believes that if he does anything that he thinks benefits another person, then they owe him and they must do what he wants out of loyalty. Of course, if a presidential election was won by 3 states but only one state had members of both chambers of Congress supporting a written objection to counting the electoral college votes of that state, then regardless of what happened with that one state, the winner would remain the same. Therefore, the written objections must apply to enough states that the remainder of states which went to Joe Biden held fewer electoral college votes than the 232 electoral college votes that Donald Trump won. Otherwise, even if some states’ electoral college votes were removed from Joe Biden’s total, even this smaller total would be greater than Donald Trump’s and, thus, would still leave Joe Biden as the president-elect.
Unfortunately, House Democrats do have a record of supporting oral objections to counting the electoral college votes of various states, but no US senators agreed to support their objection to counting the electoral college votes of whatever states except in 2004. So, while technically House Democrats do have a record of supporting objections to counting the electoral college votes of various states, it is very different than in 2020. Outside of 2004 since no US senators joined in supporting the written objection to counting the electoral college votes of whatever states, then the objections were merely oral and meant nothing and had no consequences.
Even in 2004, the written objection was very different from 2020. In 2004, John Kerry had already conceded. There was, therefore, ZERO CHANCE of John Kerry winning the election as a result of the written objection to counting the electoral college votes of Ohio. On the other hand, in 2020, Donald Trump had NOT conceded and, therefore, there was a non zero, non-trivial chance that Donald Trump could win. 2004 was won by one state, Ohio, whereas 2020 was won by three states. In 2004, John Kerry discouraged Senator Barbara Boxer from supporting a written objection to counting the Ohio electoral college votes. On the other hand, Donald Trump encouraged republicans in Congress to support the written objections to counting electoral college votes of states Joe Biden won. In 2004, Senator Barbara Boxer stated that she was not disputing who won Ohio, but rather just protesting voter suppression. Again, on the other hand, the Senate and House Republicans were disputing who actually won these states whose electoral college votes they seek to remove from the Joe Biden column.
Based upon Cassidy Hutchison’s testimony from the January 6th Select Committee, Donald Trump intended to go with the other insurrectionists to the Capitol. Donald Trump invited his supporters to go to a rally in Washington, D.C. on January 6th, saying it would be “wild”. By saying it would be wild, he was clearly intending to promote the idea of violence.
Here’s an explanation:
‘Will be wild’
Much of the committee’s discussion centered on a 1:42 a.m. tweet from Trump on Dec. 19, 2020.
“Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!” Trump wrote.
“When Donald Trump sent out his tweet, he became the first president to call for a crowd to descend on the capital city to block the constitutional transfer of power,” Raskin said.
“Peter Navarro releases 36 page report alleging election fraud ‘more than sufficient’ to swing victory to Trump washex.am/3nwaBCe. A great report by Peter. Statistically impossible to have lost the 2020 Election. Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!
1:42 am December 19, 2020 “
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From the time that Donald Trump issued that tweet, far right extremist podcasters called on Trump supporters to go to the rally, essentially promoting the idea of doing anything necessary to keep Trump in power. We see evidence of this in the seventh hearing of the January 6th Select Committee. This is seen from 1:10:01 to 1:12:41
Representative Rankin says that Women for America First sought to change the time for the reservation for a rally permit to January 6th. This rescheduling created the rally where Trump would speak, he went on to say. Ali Alexander and wildprotest.com joined in and on their website it said, “Trump wants to see you in DC” in big white letters with a red background. It provided all the information an attender might need in order to attend the rally at which Trump incited the insurrection and other riots as well.
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Alex Jones (starts at 1:10:45) says, “It’s Saturday December 19th, the year is 2020 And one of the most historic events in American history has just taken place. President Trump in the early morning hours today tweeted that he wants the American people to march on Washington DC on January 6th, 2021. and Tim Pool a prominent Pro-Trump Youtuber said, “And now Donald Trump is calling on his supporters to descend on Washington DC January 6th. “ Alex Jones stated, “He is now calling on we the people to take action and show our numbers. “ Matt Bracken offered, “We’re going to only be saved by millions of Americans moving to Washington, occupying the entire area, if necessary, storming right into the Capitol. We know the rules of engagement. If you have enough people, you can push down any kind of a fence or a wall. “ Tim Pool says, “This could be Trump’s last stand. And it’s a time when he has specifically called on his supporters to arrive in DC. That’s something that may actually be the big push Trump supporters need to say, ‘This is it! It’s now or never!’ Salty Cracker, Pro-Trump Youtuber says, “You better understand something son! You better understand something red wave bitch! There is going to be a red wedding going down on January 6th!” Tim Pool continues, “On that day, Trump says, ‘Show up for a protest! It’s gonna be wild!’ And based upon what we’ve already seen from the previous events, I think Trump is absolutely correct!” Returning to Salty Cracker, we hear him say, “Motherfucker, you better look outside! You better look out on January 6th (covering his mouth trying to look cool) kick that fucking door open, look down the street, there’s gonna be a million plus geeked up armed Americans (doing something goofy but trying to look cool I guess) “ Then, Alex Jones intones, “The time for games is over! The time for action is now! Where were you when history called? Where were you when you and your children’s destiny and future was on the line? “
Representative Raskin reminds us that “red wedding” is a pop culture reference to mass slaughter.
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Trump’s tweet set off all these far right Pro-Trump influencers to call for a huge mass of Trump supporters to go to Washington DC to possibly use violence and invade the Capitol if that’s what it took in order to keep Trump in power and stop unofficial president elect Joe Biden from taking office. These right wing extremists clearly either believed or tried to get others to believe that it was still possible through the acts of their listeners and readers to enable Trump to stay in power and prevent Joe Biden from taking office. There were no lines of demarcation beyond which they would not go given in their language. Violence was clearly in mind as a method to keep Trump in power if other means failed.
Again, because Trump identified January 6th as the date he wanted on which he wanted all of his supporters to go to the rally at which he would incite the insurrection, that was the date that the far right wing extremist social media members repeated. Donald Trump did not choose January 6th by accident. He knew that it was the date on which Joe Biden would officially become President-Elect Joe Biden. By this time, he had already lost all but one of the 62 lawsuits he filed in order to attempt to alter the outcome and the one lawsuit which he won had no effect on who won the 2020 presidential election. As Tim Pool stated, this truly was Trump’s last stand. As noted above, Cassidy Hutchinson stated that Trump tried to go to the Capitol with his radical supporters. Rudy Guliani told Cassidy Hutchinson that Trump was going to look “powerful” at the Capitol.
Once more, remember that this is the date at which the electoral college votes are going to be counted and certified and the winner will become the official president-elect of the United States and it was going to take place at the Capitol. That time and place, clearly, was not an accident. Now, what ended up happening was that the most violent insurrectionists searched for Vice President Mike Pence whom they were going to hang and they searched for Speaker Nancy Pelosi whom they were going to either kill or harm. Some insurrectionists killed and injured Capitol police and others there providing security. Other insurrectionists defecated and urinated in and on the Capitol. Still other insurrectionists blindly roamed the Capitol.
However, what I am convinced Trump would have done had he been there with his fellow insurrectionists is to order the mob to scare a majority of the members of each chamber into supporting enough written objections to counting electoral college votes of states that Joe Biden won so that he, Donald Trump, would have more electoral college votes than Joe Biden. Alternatively, he would have had the other insurrectionists threaten to harm or kill Mike Pence if he didn’t reject enough states that Biden won to result in Trump having more electoral college votes than Joe Biden. In other words, he was going to use the insurrectionists as a tool to scare or harm either Mike Pence or enough members of Congress to result in him having more electoral college votes than Joe Biden. The insurrectionists were going to be a tool used to keep Donald Trump in power.
That reality is why the insurrection is so important. A plot to assassinate the vice president and the Speaker of the House is extremely serious, obviously. Would that have resulted in a different president-elect? I don’t think so. As bad as they would be, we have a process in place should our leaders die or be assassinated. So, it would not have been a coup. Therefore, while this would be an attack on our democracy, it would not have been a successful attack on our democracy. A coup is an end to our democracy. The insurrectionists killed and injured more than a hundred Capitol police officers and security personnel. That is evil! But it also is not a coup. A coup means that our democracy has ended.
And that’s why the insurrection was so important. The insurrection was part of a SPECIFIC plan to successfully attempt a coup.