Bahkmut points the way: there’s not a lot of reason to believe that the Russian fortifications are any less of a paper tiger than their army.
I know Wagner probably extra sucks at fortifications, but on the other hand the Russian MoD has depleted combat troops and equipment—and the troops that remain are mis-matched, poorly trained, demoralized, and disproportionately conscripted.
So having played hours of Risk as a teenager, I wonder if the following will prove to be the battle plan:
- Recon in force everywhere along broad fronts to find weak positions—weakness defined as under-staffed, mis-staffed, or poorly supported defensive positions.
- Avoid concentrating troops near the front early until weak points are found in order to minimize targets from Russian aircraft, missiles and drones.
- Concentrate and advance highly mobile units only after weak points identified and push through to strategic goal.
I’m sure of one of two things about the above. Either I just re-invented for myself aspects of current military doctrine—perhaps this is what is meant by “shaping the battle,” for example? Or I am another militarily-incompetent civilian armchair warrior.
Perhaps even a bit of both?