Movimiento Semilla is out. Their candidate for President, Bernardo Arévalo, is not eligible to compete in the August 20th run-off election. And the corruption continues…. Hours later, are they back in?
What has happened in the last two weeks in the Guatemalan presidential election has rivaled some of the most turbulent elections in the last fifty years.
The Review
As I reported last week, a number of political parties, including that of front-runner Sandra Torres, raised objections to the June 25th election. By law, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) began to review the results in the 24 election boards. Under public scrutiny, the process was to completed by reviewing ballots against time stamps. 12 were completed by July 4th and the remaining ones finished by the end of the week. Notably, the count for Arévalo and other Movimiento Semilla increased.
Even on a weekend that featured a huge national distraction: the Guatemala national football team (Selección de fútbol de Guatemala) playing in the quarterfinals of the Copa Oro (Gold Cup) series being played in Cincinnati, talk about the election situation increased. Several commentators remarked on the increased increase amongst young people who are refusing to accept the open abuse of the political system.
Bernardo Arévalo stayed calm. He is the son of a statesman. He is a diplomat. He is a person of integrity. He also recognizes that the histrionics exuded by many politicians, including current Guatemalan president Alejandro Giammattei (who famously campaigned on jailing his opponent when he was running against Sandra Torres in 2019), that can gain him no advantage in the process or the polling.
On Wednesday, the TSE, legally the ultimate arbiter in electoral matters, upheld the results of the first-round vote.
The Prosecutor
Followers of Guatemalan politics will recognize Rafael Curruchiche. He is the head of the Fiscalía Especial Contra la Impunidad (FECI) (the main Special Prosecutor agency) who has been sanctioned by the U.S. State Department under Section 353 Corrupt and Undemocratic Actors Report:
Jose Rafael Curruchiche Cacul (Rafael Curruchiche), the current chief of the Public Ministry’s Office of the Special Prosecutor Against Impunity (FECI), obstructed investigations into acts of corruption by disrupting high-profile corruption cases against government officials and raising apparently spurious claims against FECI prosecutors, private attorneys, and former International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) prosecutors.
The CICIG, as reported here previously, was the U.N. commission set up to tackle widespread corruption. The actions of corrupt politicians from U.S. Senator Marco Rubio to then-Guatemalan president Jimmy Morales conspired to get the commission kicked out of the country. You can see a list of other Guatemalan politicians, judges and business leaders sanctioned by the U.S. State Department here.
Yesterday evening, Curruchiche announced that the legal status of Movimiento Semilla was suspended as a result of an investigation into supposed irregularities in the collection of signatures when the party was founded. (Movimiento Semilla was founded in 2018.)
The Guardian reported:
“There are indications that more than 5,000 citizens were illegally signed up to the Seed Movement [Movimiento Semilla] by having their writing and signatures forged,” Curruchiche said.
Hours later, on Thursday morning, officials from the attorney general’s office raided the offices of the supreme electoral court, causing further alarm over the future of the election.
Arévalo said the order violated election law. “We are moving forward and we are not going to let ourselves be distracted by these illegal acts on the part of this corrupt group,” he told reporters.
Irma Palencia, the head of the TSE, expressed concern Thursday about the ruling nullifying Semilla’s legal status. “The health of democracy is at risk,” she noted.
The reaction was fierce in Guatemala: not only bringing together Arévalo supporters and those who are openly opposed to Torres but many people who are deeply troubled by the open manipulation of democracy. One of my students posted on social media: “Esto ya no es por semilla, es por la voz de todos” (It is no longer for Semilla, it is for the voice of everyone.)
Even workers inside of the Ministerio Público (MP — the Public Ministry) joined in!
Protests continued this evening, calling for the removal of the attorney general and the head of the MP, María Consuelo Porras.
Yes, the U.S. State Department also added her to a list of "undemocratic and corrupt" officials in 2021!
Not to be left out of the spotlight, Sandra Torres, the other presidential candidate, expressed her solidarity with her competitor Bernardo Arévalo and announced the suspension of her campaign. “As a candidate I want to compete on equal terms” for the August 20 ballot, Torres said. “We want to express our solidarity with the voters of the Semilla party and also with those who went to the polls.”
Brian A. Nichols, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs, expressed the government's worries about the developments on social media:
We welcome @TSEGuatemala certification of 1st round election results upholding the will of the people & look forward to the Aug 20 vote on the announced top two presidential candidates, but we are deeply concerned by new @MPguatemala threats to Guatemala’s electoral democracy. Institutions must respect the will of voters.
The Appeal
Arévalo’s party appealed to La Corte de Constitucionalidad de Guatemala (the country’s Constitutional Court) to block the federal electoral tribunal from carrying out the order. Late today, the court granted a provisional amparo (protection) to Movimiento Semilla, against the suspension order that the judge had ordered.
In a statement, the Court explained that the protection opens the way for “the second electoral round (presidential) to take place on the indicated date and with the participation of the official candidates.”
Arévalo praised this amparo, filed "in defense of democracy, institutionality, and constitutionality.”
What happens now?
Unsure of what the next actions of the government and corrupt actors, groups all over the country are planning protests starting Friday morning. Guatemala has seen protests, riots and street fighting in 2020 and 2021.
The U.S. Embassy has issued the following Demonstration Alert:
Location: Throughout Guatemala
Event: The U.S. Embassy has received reports from open-source material that there may be demonstrations throughout Guatemala from Thursday, July 13, to Sunday, July 16. The exact locations of the demonstrations are not confirmed.
Demonstrations in Guatemala City have been announced as follows:
- July 13, 2023, at 4:00 pm, at Ministerio Público (MP), zone 1, and then to the Constitutional Court (Corte de Constitucionalidad (CC)), zone 1
- July 14, 2023, at 4:00 pm, at Ministerio Público (MP), zone 1
As always, the timing, size, and duration of planned demonstrations and roadblocks can change. Demonstrations can grow quickly in size and often move from one location to another, thus potentially disrupting movement. The Embassy recommends that U.S. citizens be aware and vigilant.
All I can add is: stand by — this is far from settled.
Thank you for reading.
Alejandro Morales
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