Recent polling shows both Missouri Senators are under 50% in popular support. While President Biden is deeply unpopular there, as well, this still represents an opportunity for Democrats. Yes, Missouri has a strong Red lean. No, Democrat candidates at the statewide level are not doomed to failure.
Cook Political Report states that they think Josh Hawley is a shoo-in. Solid, “R” is the rating. Every single projection for the race on 270 To Win, shows the same analysis. Pundits think Hawley is a lock to win.
I do not live in Missouri, but I do think the pundits are missing something that the polls are picking up. Trump Republicans hate Hawley. There is no way out of the visual of him ramping up the January 6th crowd, then running away.
That could explain his underwater polling. As recently as July, Hawley’s popularity stood at 52%. Now, it is down to 44%. Why? Possibly because now Trump is on the campaign trail. Trump supporters are reminded of the betrayal.
Hawley’s support is still formidable. It is not, however, insurmountable. Also, it is falling. The trend is in our favor.
In today’s Kos, A Critical Mind shows an ad for Democrat Lucas Kunce. The ad, in a primary no less, simply tears into Hawley for cowardice. Kunce is not waiting for the outcome of the primary.
Whether this ad will play well in the primary electorate is unclear. What is clear is that any version of this ad will play for the eventual Democratic candidate. Emotions matter.
Given the Republican lean in the state, any large undecided vote would normally sweep towards the Republican candidate. But, Josh Hawley is not a normal Republican. He abandoned his followers during a fight. For many, if not most, that is an unforgiveable sin. They might find it hard to put a check next to that name on the ballot.
Issues do not drive the majority of MAGA supporters. Loyalty does. Hawley does not have it.
I suspect that creates an opening for any solid Democratic candidate. We should do what we can to push them across the goal line.