Tropical storm Idalia, currently off the coast near Cancun, Mexico, is expected to strengthen to a Cat 3 Hurricane and head towards the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday/Wednesday. Conditions are ripe for intensification over the next 24-48 hours over the warm waters of and the moist atmosphere over the Gulf of Mexico.
There is some uncertainty about the exact path and intensity of the storm but after drenching the Yucatan and western Cuba, Idalia (pronounced ee-DAL-ya) is expected to travel north across the Gulf, strengthen along the way and make landfall in Florida. Counties along the gulf coast are already on alert. Now is the time to get prepared.
Here is some info on the coming storm —
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS from www.nhc.noaa.gov/… updated Aug 28, 5:00 a.m. EDT.
INIT 28/0900Z 20.1N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 21.1N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 22.6N 85.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 24.8N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 27.7N 84.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 30.7N 82.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0600Z 32.8N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 34.5N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
Some models at www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/… indicate Cat 3 to near Cat 4 Hurricane wind intensity before landfall.
Estimated rainfall amounts have been rising -
Satellite Imagery shows an angry storm picking up steam -
Some animation of Idalia and Franklin from the Met Office -
Idalia has a lot of warm waters (31C) to pick up strength from —
The Hurricane Hunter aircraft made several flights into Idalia today. Many more are scheduled for tomorrow. Here is what is looks like from the cockpit of the aircraft to fly into a Tropical Storm. This is a video from 2 days ago of a flight into TS Franklin.
The 2023 Hurricane Season
The 2023 hurricane season may have looked tame so far, but the hurricane season really ramps up in late August into September. See graph below.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was expected to be relatively mild due to the onset of El Nino. But the extra warm waters in the Atlantic led NOAA to revise its hurricane forecast a week ago as follows —
- Likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season = 60% (was 30% in May forecast)
- Likelihood of near-normal activity = 25% (was 40% in May forecast)
Here is the updated outlook for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season -
Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea surface temperatures have been unusually high this year, after all a lot of global warming heat ends up in the oceans. These high water temperatures are conducive to hurricane formation, while El Nino and trade winds tend to dampen them.
Below is a graph of global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly (deviation from average) for the past 32 years. This year’s graph soars way above the rest.
Let’s keep an eye on these storms as the hurricane season ramps up and make preparations ahead of time.
Let’s also keep educating the public about climate change and global warming, that it is caused by human activity and increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, most of it contributed by fossils fuels, and what we are seeing this year in terms of heat waves, wildfires, floods and droughts is a preview of what lies ahead.
Let’s keep neutralizing the massive disinformation campaign launched by the republican party and their paymasters — the fossil fuel companies, the billionaire club and various state actors.
And let’s keep emphasizing that if republicans take control of Washington, then we can pretty much kiss earth goodbye, since these monsters have plans ready to undo the progress we have made so far on renewal energy and energy efficiency and to turn government into a servant of the fossil fuel industry.