As of Monday morning, Tropical Storm Idalia is located just east of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula and carrying top sustained winds of 65 miles per hour. However, within hours it is expected to gain enough force to become Hurricane Idalia as it begins a right hook into Florida’s Gulf Coast. When the storm arrives in Florida on Tuesday evening, it is expected to be a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of at least 96 mph.
Earlier this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast a below average hurricane season. That’s the typical pattern in a year where the El Niño ocean current is dominant. Since then they’ve revised that forecast twice, each time increasing the number of expected storms. They are now calling for an above average season, and Idalia looks to be the first storm headed for shore in the east.
At the moment, the storm is expected to strike the northern Gulf Coast above Tampa in the area around Cedar Key. Though the storm is only a day away from arrival, its exact scale and speed are difficult to predict given its rapid development in the record-warm waters of the Gulf. But some Florida homeowners are facing another unknown: How are they going to pay for storm damage in a state where home insurance is increasingly difficult to find?
As The Guardian reported in July, Florida is facing a “home insurance crisis.” At least six home insurance companies went bankrupt in Florida over the last year, and several large national providers have stopped providing policies in the state. Farmers Insurance recently pulled out, and while smaller companies are moving in to fill the gap, the rates being charged are often so high they are challenging the ability of Florida residents to hold onto their homes.
The biggest reason for this increase is the premiums demanded for hurricane coverage. Insurance rates began moving sharply upward in Florida following the impact of the Category 5 Hurricane Andrew in 1992. As the number of hurricanes hitting Florida and the cost of related damage has increased, insurers have responded by raising rates ever higher—or by fleeing the state altogether.
It certainly hasn’t helped that Republican governors have engaged in not only climate change denial, but they also obstruct new preparedness plans by denying state agencies and officials the ability to plan accordingly for the impact of more storms that are growing increasingly powerful. Gov. Ron DeSantis has been accused of taking a “catastrophic approach” to climate change, while predecessor Rick Scott actually forbade the use of the phrases “climate change” and “global warming” in state planning.
The National Hurricane Center is currently warning of potential flash floods along Florida’s west coast, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia. Rain is expected to move north and east into the Carolinas on Wednesday. Storm surge warnings are currently in place along a long stretch of coastline, with the greatest area of concern north of Hermosa Springs.