Hurricane Idalia, currently sporting 90 100 105 110 130 mph winds, is headed towards the neck of the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday/Wednesday. Conditions are ripe for further intensification over the next 12 hours over the warm waters of and the moist atmosphere over the Gulf of Mexico. Besides, strong winds and heavy rainfall, storm surge is estimated to be 10-15 feet along a wide section of the coastal area around the “big bend” — from Tampa to Cedar Key to Steinhatchee.
Folks along the Gulf coast a few hours left to evacuate or to make preparations. Several counties have evacuation orders in place.
Here is some info on the coming storm —
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS from www.nhc.noaa.gov/... updated Aug 29, 5:00 p.m. EDT.
INIT 29/2100Z 26.1N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 28.3N 84.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 31.0N 82.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/0600Z 32.9N 80.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/1800Z 33.9N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 01/0600Z 33.8N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 33.3N 71.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 32.3N 69.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 31.7N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
Estimated rainfall amounts have been rising; 6-10 inches of rain over parts of Georgia and the Carolinas.
Storm surge from 12-15 feet will be devastating and life-threatening in many areas. Rising sea levels and the Supermoon on Wednesday when the moon is closest to earth, will only make things worse.
A closeup of the areas with the highest storm surge — from Tampa to Cedar Key to Steinhatchee.
Idalia still has a lot of warm waters (31C) to pick up strength from —
List of counties under evacuation orders at www.nytimes.com/...
Idalia is an unprecedented storm for this region -
The 2023 Hurricane Season
The 2023 hurricane season may have looked tame so far, but the hurricane season really ramps up in late August into September. See graph below.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was expected to be relatively mild due to the onset of El Nino. But the extra warm waters in the Atlantic led NOAA to revise its hurricane forecast a week ago as follows —
- Likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season = 60% (was 30% in May forecast)
- Likelihood of near-normal activity = 25% (was 40% in May forecast)
Here is the updated outlook for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season -
Let’s make sure our friends and families in the path of Hurricane Idalia have made preparations.
Please feel free to provide info on conditions in your neighborhood and any tips for those still struggling to make preparations.
Let’s also keep educating the public about climate change and global warming, that it is caused by human activity and increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, most of it contributed by fossils fuels, and what we are seeing this year in terms of heat waves, wildfires, floods and droughts is a preview of what lies ahead.
Let’s keep neutralizing the massive disinformation campaign launched by the republican party and their paymasters — the fossil fuel companies, the billionaire club and various state actors.
And let’s keep emphasizing that if republicans take control of Washington, then we can pretty much kiss earth goodbye, since these monsters have plans ready to undo the progress we have made so far on renewal energy and energy efficiency and to turn government into a servant of the fossil fuel industry.