Check out Gallup polling of Job Approval, heading into autumn in the year before election, for Obama, and for Biden.
It shows Biden’s job approval at 42%.
At this time in 2011, Obama’s job approval stood at 41%.
And 15 months later, Obama gets declared the winner in the presidential election.
The path forward for Democrat Joe Biden, vs the Republican field (or the former guy), may yet be successful, if history is a guide!
Gallup polling wrote:
Obama's September Approval Rating Remains at Term-Low 41%
PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama's job approval rating averaged 41% in September, tied with August for the lowest monthly approval average of his administration.
Obama began his term with average approval ratings of 66% in January 2009 and 64% in February 2009. His ratings gradually dri fted downward from that point, with a slight uptick in January of this year and again in May, after the killing of Osama bin Laden.
Too Early to Predict Re-Election Chances Based on Approval Ratings
...While Obama's September job approval average may not appear to bode well for him, history shows that approval ratings at this juncture are not strongly predictive of an incumbent president's re-election chances. …. George H.W. Bush's approval rating in September of 1991 was 68%, second only to Dwight Eisenhower's 71% in September 1955. Bush went on to lose the 1992 election to Bill Clinton.
There’s still quite a long, long road ahead to voting in 2024. As Obama and Bill Clinton were able to see forward, to 1 year following their their not-so-certain polling, and when they went on to win their re-elect.