I think it’s important to note that the limited field of vision of so many of the Pundit class has now started to infect the discourse on MSNBC — at least a few of the guest panelists. Unfortunately, it is as likely as not to be “aided and abetted” by MSNBC anchors — at times, at least.
So to my great surprise, Jen Psaki — on the 4:00 p.m. msnbc show just let the pedestrian election analysis of Mr. Steele go right by un-explored and un-challenged. I know Ms. Psaki’s far more insightful than that demonstration. Panelist David Plouffe had some good GOP primary analysis and didn’t venture past the ‘early stage primary shift’ discussion, so his approach wasn’t as off base. And as a fan of Plouffe, I’ll leave it there.
So on to the monumentally flawed analysis. Michael Steele hypothesized that should Haley leverage all these small green shoots in her current campaign situation / campaign trajectory into the GOP nomination she will beat Biden in the general — no contest.
If Steele is saying that and he’s not including the critical missing element in that analysis — he’s burying the lede and / or betraying his intrinsic political bias. If he doesn’t see it or doesn’t agree with it, I’m on the path to losing what little respect I have for him as a political observer.
The critical element for Haley to win is this — Trump is dead or incapacitated / so infirm as to make a Presidential run near-impossible. If he’s not, Haley (or anyone else the GOP puts up as their candidate for POTUS) will almost certainly get blown out — maybe 400+ Electoral votes for Biden. Because Trump will NEVER fade away.
Let’s go with the scenario Michael Steele spoke of — Haley gets momentum in the primaries and, by whatever means, is made the GOP nominee OVER Trump. That means Trump “lost” the primary ‘elections’ in aggregate. Does anyone believe Trump will accept that outcome? Of course not, so the moment that likelihood or even that ‘decent odds’ possibility of Haley getting the GOP nod presents itself — Trump does what he always does and says the Nominating Process is corrupted and starts litigating against anyone and everyone. I mean — who thinks he WON’T go down that path to discredit the process in hopes that the party’s movers and shakers just overturn Haley’s “win” and give him the nomination to avoid the internal strife?
Let’s go even further and say that — even after all of Trump’s litigation and threats of violence on anyone that supports Haley and his threats to destroy the party if he doesn’t get the nomination, the GOP finds SOME WAY (God knows how they could ever be thought to actually have the cajones to do that) to nominate Haley and she becomes the actual GOP candidate for POTUS.
Does anyone think Trump just fades away vis-a-vis the 2024 election? Let me try to put this as best I can — NFW!!
He will be out campaigning as a third party — even write-in — candidate in all the Red States where he believes he can “flip the switch” and still get the Presidency. Campaigning AGAINST Haley and Biden and saying they are both part of the deep state conspiracy to steal the election from him. The election that is rightly his — just ask those Iowa evangelical preachers talking about the “second coming” of Christ through Trump. If Trump is asking his “I don’t lose a single voter even if I shoot someone on 5th Avenue” crowd to vote for him, does anyone think that he won’t siphon off AT LEAST 10% of the GOP base / electorate — that floor of 10% of the GOP Base is the ball game right there folks and the smart money would put the “siphoning” at somewhere closer to 15% (6%-7% of the total number of votes cast)— which could wind up running the table down the ticket as well.
Now all of this is every Dems wet dream — but remember, I’m only reciting the casino theory of likely (almost certain, in my mind) outcomes that “follow” from Michael Steele’s premise that Haley parlays her current situation into winning the GOP nomination coupled with Mr. Steele’s silence on Trump’s personal situation. That means we can assume Steele means Trump is as alive and well (there’s a loaded phrase) as he is today but he’s lost the party nomination and was “kicked out of the band” by the GOP itself.
Michael — you need a re-think there.