The New Hampshire Primary was the first in which it was essentially a choice between just Trump or Haley - but it won’t be the last. While Haley did not score a knock-out, neither did Trump win by an overwhelming margin either, not for a former president. The previous Iowa caucuses were won by Trump — but again not by a definitive amount. So, what’s the way to think about this? Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo has been looking at this, and had a take on the situation before the New Hampshire primary, and after.
The problem is deciding how to interpret the results. How big a vote did Haley have to get to remain a viable candidate? How big did Trump have to win to end the competition and lock down the nomination? And, which would be the best outcome for Biden (and America?) Here's what Marshall had to say before the voting:
...I’d put the number for Haley somewhere between 35% and 40%. For Trump, maybe if he goes over 60%. The truth is I have no idea. By any reasonable calculus, if she can’t win in New Hampshire she can’t win anywhere. And really … it doesn’t matter. We’re talking about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin when there actually is no pin.
I want to address a different question which has come up in recent days: which outcome should Democrats and Trump opponents be hoping for? Is it better for Trump to get bogged down in a lengthy primary battle or end the race tonight and confirm the nomination battle is over? At a basic level none of it matters because Trump is the nominee. The only question is whether the final hold outs come to grips with that fact tonight or in four or six weeks.
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Marshall brings this up because a lot of people still don’t seem able to believe Trump will be the nominee, according to conversations he’s been having and other sources. He reports the Biden campaign wants the Trump nomination to become inevitable as soon as possible, to bring things into focus. The coalition of assorted groups that Biden needs to bring together has been, as Marshall puts it, “listless and fragmented.” The certainty of a Biden-Trump rematch can be expected to change that. (The endorsement of Biden by the U.A.W. after the primary may be a sign of that happening.)
But, Marshall opines, even though Haley does not stand a chance of getting the nomination in his opinion, that’s not necessarily the worst thing if she stays in the race. Trump’s brand is based on domination. The longer Haley stays in the race, the more it weakens his brand and allows criticism of Trump to continue, both openly and behind the scenes. She gets to live rent-free in what’s left of his brain, which drives him crazier.
Haley has announced she is still in the race, and is looking forward to going up against Trump in her own state in the next round of the primaries. The response by Trump, his surrogates, and the Republican Party establishment is to declare the race for the nomination over, with Marjorie Taylor Greene calling for the eradication of everyone in the party who doesn’t fall in line behind Trump. Trump assembled defeated rivals in a display of fealty to him Tuesday night. McConnell too is falling in line.
The reality (for Trump) is that it appears that while his lock on the nomination and the Republican Party is secure, that same is not true for the Republican base. Trump is a known quantity now, and a fair number of voters do not like what they see and have seen. Yet his grip on the party seems unbreakable.
Josh Marshall had some more thoughts on the New Hampshire primary after the dust settled. As he notes, any other candidate, especially one running as a former president ought to have higher performance expectations than 51% in Iowa and 54% in New Hampshire. So is he not meeting expectations, or is he doing just fine? Marshall has this to say:
...So which is it? Trump’s numbers are weak and underwhelming or he’s already cleared the field and secured the nomination after two 50+ wins. This isn’t just a matter of contending hot takes or playing the refs to say what his standard of success should be. It’s a replay of a point we’ve been discussing for eight years. Remember that Will Saletan quote I’ve been repeating off and on every year since 2016: The GOP is a failed state and Donald Trump is its warlord. That’s still where we are. A warlord is either unable or uninterested in creating a proper state. They dominate part of it and overawe the rest through menace and violence. That remains Donald Trump’s relationship with the GOP.
That certainly doesn’t mean he’s destined to lose. He’s won an election under this arrangement and lost another. Both are possible this year. But the arrangement is still basically the same. And that’s the real lesson we can draw from these contests.
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One More Thing from Marshall
Biden was not on the ballot in New Hampshire — but still did well as a write in..
...President Biden didn’t campaign in the state because New Hampshire refused to abide by the DNC’s new primary calendar which put South Carolina and Nevada at the front of the nomination line. His name didn’t appear on the ballot either. He appears on track to get a bit over 65% of the vote as a write-in. He’s likely one of the few and possibly only presidential candidate ever to win a primary as a write-in.
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An ad hoc effort arose to encourage people to write in Biden’s name, and it worked. There was some attempted raft*cking to stop it, a robocall with an AI voice that sounded like Biden telling Democrats to save their votes for November. It’s being investigated.
For Democratic candidates who were on the ballot:
The known candidates whose names appeared on the ballot together got about a quarter of the vote. Rep. Dean Phillips got just under 20% of the vote while author and self-help guru Marianne Williamson got just under 5%.
If Haley should drop out on the basis of her percentage, those two should definitely pack it in.
For all the critics and the media parroting GOP talking points about Biden’s age and unpopularity, there has been no one who has magically emerged as a viable Democratic alternative. I find it of interest to note that the same people never seemed to get around to demanding the Republican Party find an alternative to Trump. Perhaps it’s because they know, at some level they won’t acknowledge, that the GOP has no one who would be any better.
What will be interesting going forward is to see what will happen as the reality of a Biden-Trump rematch settles in.
It’s not over. Let’s finish the job.