Everyone thinks Trump is a shoo-in to be the GOP nominee. Not I, and neither should you.
Why?
Because by the time of the GOP National Convention in July, he’ll already be a convict from the DC federal election interference case. Yes, it might get delayed from March to April, maybe May, but definitely concluded before July.
Federal prosecutors have a conviction rate above 95%. I’ll bet those odds any day.
It’s hard to imagine federally convicted felon Trump running a campaign while under house arrest, or even in prison for violating conditions of release while on appeal. (Trump violate rules? Who’s ever heard of that happening?)
The GOP leadership knows that. Their supporters may be detached from reality, but GOP leadership isn’t. During back-room negotiations in Milwaukee, they will instead choose a candidate with at least a snowball’s chance of winning. So Trump won’t even be on the November ballot. The GOP makes the rules on whom to nominate, and they can change those rules whenever needed, primary election results be damned. This is an unprecedented emergency, they will correctly claim.
The Democratic National Convention doesn’t happen until August. The DNC can choose to run Biden, as we all hope and expect, or Biden himself might choose not to run if it’s not against the evil monster who convinced him to run in 2020. We shall see.
But of one thing I’m sure: Trump won’t be on the November ballot.
Yes, I know that goes against all conventional wisdom. So when has conventional wisdom been wrong? I don’t know. For some unexplained reason the number 2016 pops into my head.
So relax. Trump’s superpower is his spectacular ability to lie to his gullible cult. But his kryptonite is the criminal justice system. That’s the one place where lies aren’t allowed.
Thank God for kryptonite. It will turn Trump into toast.