In 2020, I wrote "Why I'm Optimistic about Biden's Chances" (www.dailykos.com/...). Turns out that I was right.
This year, I'm again optimistic about Biden's chances. Here is why.
- As we get closer to the election, we can expect Biden and his allies to make a more forceful case for his successes over the past three years. This will help to sway moderates, non-Trump Republicans, and Independents.
- Biden has the home court advantage as the incumbent.
- The economy looks good. That usually helps the incumbent.
- Trump is becoming increasingly unhinged. It is more and more apparent, and being reported by the media. Most people don't want a President who can't control himself, who is possibly suffering from dementia, and/or who seems to be in the midst of a nervous breakdown. In fact, the man looks as if he were about to have a heart attack or a stroke at any minute. There is no telling what kind of condition he will be in by November.
- Non-MAGAs are concerned over Trump's legal problems. As Trump continues to lose civil and criminal cases, he will lose more and more support from rational, law abiding people.
- There's still plenty of time for new Trump indictments, lawsuits, and convictions to arise.
- Trump's threats of a dictatorship alienate some non-Trump Republicans, moderates, and Independents. He has already raised an alarm amongst Liberals and Progressives.
- The numbers are against Trump.
- The Iowa and New Hampshire primaries showed that Trump is capable of garnering about half the Republican votes. On the other hand, the other half of the voters wanted someone other than Trump. That means the non-Trump voters may be up for grabs.
- There are more Democrats than Republicans. That almost guarantees that Biden will win the popular vote. If Biden can attract enough non-Trump Republicans and Independents, he can again walk away with a resounding Electoral College victory in 2024.
- There is little or no threat from a third party candidate yet.
Of course, Biden has his own problems to deal with (the border, his staunch support for Israel, Trumpian propaganda and lies, etc.) Still, I would say that it's Biden's election to lose.
In my 2020 Diary Poll, 93% of the respondents expected Joe Biden to win. They were right! Only 4% were pessimistic about his chances. I hope that you will take the 2024 Poll to provide your own opinion.