Now, it should be noted that the outcome of the special election to fill the remainder of Santos’ term might have little bearing on who wins the November election. That’s because New York’s highest court has ordered the state to draw new congressional districts ahead of the 2024 elections, and Democrats have an opportunity to redraw districts like the 3rd to their advantage. Currently, the swing district covers parts of Nassau County on Long Island and a sliver of the New York City borough of Queens.
Early voting begins Feb. 3 in the special election that both parties have placed special emphasis on. Outside political groups have already poured in millions of dollars to both candidates with more to come, Newsday reported.
First of all, if the seat flips to the Democrats, it would narrow the Republicans’ razor-thin House majority even further. The current composition of the House of Representatives is 219 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and three vacancies. But on a broader scale, the special election may serve as a bellwether for what Donald Trump and the GOP hope to make the major issue of the 2024 campaign: immigration.
Republicans have made fears about immigration a centerpiece of their campaigns for years. But at a time when record numbers of migrants are crossing into the southwestern border, the issue is particularly potent.
Unlike past immigration surges, this one has
intimately affected New York. More than 150,000 asylum seekers have come to the city seeking shelter, draining billions of dollars in public funds that Mayor Eric Adams has threatened to cut from other social services. Polls show suburban voters are incensed.
Republicans want them to blame Mr. Suozzi. They have blanketed the district with ads claiming he voted to weaken border security and recycling clips that show him boasting that he “kicked ICE out of Nassau County,” a reference to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Glossy mailers call him “Sanctuary City” Suozzi.
But the Times noted that Suozzi “has not shied from the issue. He put out his own ad featuring a 2018 clip from a Fox News interview in which he praises ICE. He also pointed to a 2019 essay that he wrote with former Republican Rep. Peter King proposing a “grand compromise on immigration.”
And if Suozzi does flip the district, it might just shake up enough House GOP members in districts won by Biden to support the bipartisan immigration deal now being considered in the Senate, which the president has said he will sign. Suozzi’s campaign got a boost when Trump began pressuring House Republicans to oppose the border policy legislation that also includes funding for Ukraine and Israel. With the economy improving, Trump wants to keep immigration alive as an issue for his expected campaign against Biden.
Last Thursday, Suozzi and Pilip held dueling campaign events outside the Creedmoor Psychiatric Center in Queens, whose grounds have been converted into a city-run tent shelter for about 1,000 single migrant men. The facility is on the edge of the 3rd District.
Pilip said neighbors of the shelter have reported “incidents of intimidating encounters with migrants who have demanded money and harassed children and engaged in public drinking and drug use,” Newsday reported. “The cost of the migrant crisis can be measured in dollars and cents, violence and criminal activities, as well as the destruction of our local quality of life,” Pilip told reporters.
Pilip emphasized that she is “a legal immigrant.” She was airlifted to Israel when she was 12 during the clandestine 1991 Operation Solomon to rescue Ethiopian Jews, and went on to serve in the Israeli army before emigrating to the U.S. in 2005 with her Ukrainian-born American husband.
Minutes later, Suozzi spoke to reporters nearby. He was quoted by Spectrum News as saying:
“We've had a problem on our border that started 35 years ago, we have not addressed the issue of the border for 35 years,” Suozzi said. “The border crisis on our southern border is also a Washington,. D.C., crisis. Because nobody's cut a deal nobody's negotiated to actually solve this problem. We've been trying to weaponize it for political purposes for decades.” …
“President Trump said, 'I don't want you to make a deal on the border, because it would give a victory to Biden and I couldn't use it as a political issue,’” Suozzi said.
The New York Times wrote that Pilip is relying on the GOP’s “powerful and effective party apparatus” to carry her to victory on Feb. 13. The Times added that she has rarely appeared at public events “without better-known local Republicans” with her. She only agreed to one debate.
She has also been evasive on abortion rights. Pillip, who has seven children, said she opposes abortion. But she told Newsday, “Even though that I am religious, I have seven children, I am not going to impose my own beliefs to any woman. I'm not going to support a national abortion ban.” She did not answer directly when asked whether she would support legislation codifying Roe v. Wade.
Suozzi, on the other hand, told Newsday that he would support codifying Roe v. Wade and has been endorsed by Planned Parenthood. The House Democrats’ campaign committee recently ran a new ad that claimed Pilip is “hiding” her “extreme agenda,” saying, “Pilip is part of the extreme wing of the Republican Party that wants to take away your rights and benefits. They’d ban abortion even in New York, even in cases of rape or incest. And make massive cuts to Social Security.”
There is one issue that both candidates agree on: support for Israel in its war against Hamas. Suozzi and Pilip appeared together at a rally Sunday to call for the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas, including Omer Neutra, who was raised in Nassau County and as a soldier in the IDF was captured in the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, Newsday reported. Suozzi visited Israel in December to meet with hostages’ families.
And what about Santos, the serial liar who was expelled from Congress after he was charged with multiple federal crimes, including wire fraud, money laundering, theft of public funds, and making materially false statements to the House of Representatives? The New York Times wrote:
Speaking to reporters outside a courtroom where he is preparing to stand trial, Mr. Santos said he planned to sit the election out, taking a dig at Ms. Pilip’s decision to remain registered as a Democrat.
“I don’t vote for Democrats,” he said.
RELATED STORY: Here's how we flip George Santos' seat from red to blue
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to better reflect that New York’s 3rd Congressional District voted for Joe Biden and only changed minimally on a partisan basis following redistricting after the 2020 census.