The Michigan GOP official account (controlled, presumably, by Karamo and her allies) immediately declared ahead of time that the caucus meeting was “unauthorized and out of compliance with the Party By-laws and, therefore, incapable of conducting any official business of the Michigan Republican Party.” OK, fair enough; it’s like requiring a quorum. The ouster-group claims they had enough people plus proxies to meet a quorum requirement; I assume that will be tested.
The group that met voted, not surprisingly, to oust both Karamo and GOP Party General Counsel Dan Hartman, who is apparently Karamo’s ally. That’s the CNN and Reuters headline: “Chair ousted.” But it may not be that simple.
The official GOP account (again, undoubtedly controlled by Karamo) then issued another statement saying the “rogue cabal of anti-grassroots establishment operatives” had “staged an illegitimate gathering,” and attempted an illegal coup. (She also spelled the names of the two leaders wrong, either deliberately or in haste.) Karamo has vowed not to recognize the ouster, and insists she is still in control of the party. She’s set her own party meeting for January 13; it remains to be seen how many people show up.
Food fight! Internecine conflict! Schism?
There’s a long “where are we now?” tweetthread from Michigan political analyst Dennis Lennox, which I’ll excerpt here:
1. Come Monday, does the RNC recognize a new chairman? We may not see any announcement. RNC doesn't like publicizing squabbles.
2. If RNC recognizes a new or interim chair, it's over for Karamo.
3. If there's no immediate action the next event to watch is the RNC's winter meeting later this month. Every state party chairman is a member of the RNC. Who does the RNC credential? If they don't credential Karamo, it's over.
4. RNC rules mostly default to state party rules. /2
5. In 2016 and 2020, the RNC ruled it isn't a tribunal to adjudicate disputes over who is and isn't an RNC member. They've largely left that up to the state parties.
6. RNC only hears disputes (called "contests") when it involves delegates to the national convention. /3
7. To have a contest before the RNC you need delegates, which means we're probably talking early spring before there's a controversy ripe for a contest. Generally, you need two slates of delegates. /4 . . . .
(Lennox then goes through the whole laborious process the RNC would use to determine which of two competing slates is the legitimate one for Michigan.)
Parenthetically, does anyone else remember the credential fight at the 1964 Democratic Convention in which the Mississippi Freedom Democratic Party, a Black (and white allies) coalition of voting rights activists led by indominable organizer Fannie Lou Hamer, challenged the credentials of the white racist Dixiecrat Party?
From Wikipedia:
The MFDP,,,challenged the right of the Mississippi Democratic Party's delegation to participate in the convention, claiming that the regulars had been illegally elected in a completely segregated process that violated both party regulations and federal law, and that the regulars had no intention to support President Lyndon B. Johnson, the party's candidate, in the November election. They asked that the MFDP delegates be seated rather than the segregationist regulars.
There followed a long hearing process, and LBJ attempted to forge a compromise that was unacceptable to Hamer and the MFDP delegation. Ultimately the party decided to accept the white segregationist delegation, the MFDP left, and Democrats went on to lose Mississippi in the general election.
So this could be something like what Michigan’s GOP factions face in the run-up to this summer’s RNC. But Lennox says, “My prediction is the RNC moves swiftly on recognizing or de-recognizing a chairman in Michigan. Even if that means calling a new meeting of the State Committee to reenact whatever they did today.” That’s especially true if, as looks likely, Trump nails down the nomination quickly and there’s little for the national convention to argue about. In the meantime, however, who gets to spend money in the GOP bank account (assuming they have any)? More significantly, perhaps, Lennox notes, “With or without a decision by the RNC, what does Democrat [sic, grrrrrr] Secretary of State Benson do? If I were her and wanted to play partisan games, I'd keep recognizing the rump/junta/continuing party chaired by Karamo.” Ultimately, he concludes, “If the RNC under Michigan's own Ronna McDaniel wants to act, they will. It's that simple. RNC can do whatever it wants. At the end of the day, it's a private club. Even its rules are hardly the Ten Commandments. All eyes on McDaniel.”
I’d love to hear from any Michiganders on how this is playing out in the state — and whether Democrats are sitting back and enjoying the show, or weighing in at all.