Under the latest Ukraine state of war overview by Mark Sumner, Angela Marx asked:
What if the West fails to support Ukraine enough and Putin’s forces eventually defeat Ukraine and subsume it back into the Russian Federation it appears Putin is set on recreating?
Are the Baltic states next?
Where won’t Putin put his venomous eye, should he defeat Ukraine, is actually the right question for those of us living in western countries. Especially those in the Americas.
Because it seems to me that path is a direct road to WWIII, and in that war, climate change might become irrelevant, as nuclear winter falls across the Earth in 2024 or 2025.
I started to write an answer, and it somehow became long enough to constitute a separate diary.
So, I suggest you look at the map and also remember that Russia is waging hybrid warfare, i.e. relying on subversive actions as much — if not more — than on open military invasion.
A true Russian offensive does not necessarily include missiles falling on your cities. But in a way, it is much more dangerous and chilling.
So, looking at the map. Assuming Ukraine is fully occupied by Russia, or a client/satellite state is established like in Belarus or Georgia. What does Russia get?
- yes, Moldova; for decades, Moldova has had powerful pro-Russian political powers, sometimes they were in control of the government. Moldova used to depend 100% on the Russian gas. The Russian “peacekeeping” army in Transnistria has been an eternal threat and pressure leverage in Moldova’s internal and external politics. It is only the physical shield of Ukraine and more independent policy of Ukraine that enabled the current transformation of Moldova into a pro-European democracy;
- a direct land border with Hungary, already a friendly state and almost an ally (despite its membership in the EU or even in NATO); in Ukraine, there were rumors that right before February 22, 2022, significant Hungarian army forces were moving towards Ukrainian border — allegedly, to “protect” Hungarian minority and occupy parts of Ukraine during the chaos and state collapse that was expected after the Russian invasion (look for Greater Hungaria);
- through Hungary, a direct land connection with Serbia, another Russian ally with imperial pains and ambitions;
- even better grip on Belarus (before 2022, Lukashenko used more or less friendly, allegedly Western-leaning and Western-supported Ukraine as a counterweight to Russian pressure on him);
- a direct land border with Slovakia, a potentially friendly state; through Slovakia, a direct land access to “neutral” Austria, which used to be a hub for huge Russian business, political, and intelligence presence;
- a control of the Danube delta — an important river arteria of the whole Central Europe.
With only a single victory in Ukraine, Russia will be able to penetrate deep into Europe, without even waging a war.
What’s next?
Putting more money and pressure into Hungary and Slovakia will make them de-facto Russian allies. You don’t have to militarily occupy a country to use it as your own territory.
And “de facto” is even better than formal allies. Because having at least two agents in NATO and in the EU will enable Russia to block or undermine EU/NATO actions in Europe while having a free hand itself.
Also, assume there is some kind of heated political competition between a pro-russian and pro-western parties in Hungary, Slovakia, or in other neighboring nations (Poland, Romania, any of the Baltics, any of the Balkan states (do read about Russian operations in Bosnia and Montenegro). Russia can instigate violent hostilities and — arrive with a small detachment of the special operation forces as a “peacekeeper”.
Just like it did in Georgia, Moldova, and anywhere in the early 1990-ies. In Georgia in 2008. Just like it did in Ukraine in 2014. In Syria in 2015.
That would be a clear invasion, but Russia will position it as a “civil war”, that has to be pacified. Or even as an “anti-terrorist action”. Or even as the support of a “legitimate central government”.
Having this geographical position and political situation, Russia does not need to take a full-scale invasion.
Next, land connection between Russia/Belarus and the Russian Kaliningrad enclave on the Baltic Sea.
Russia will not need to invade Poland or Lithuania to have it.
It may just threaten a military invasion.
And what will be their reaction? After having seen Ukraine reduced to ashes, and forced into submission, despite all the Ukrainians' bravery and heroic sacrifice of life?
They will know that Russia will stop at nothing. Russia is willing to kill, to die, and to bear enormous war expenses. Are you sure you are ready to match Russia’s bid for a deadly conflict? Will you blink first?
NATO/EU is definitely stronger than Russia. But are they as willing to kill, as willing to die, and as willing to bear enormous war expenses as Russia?
Also, there is a difference between being a country deep in the west of Europe, like Germany, or France, and being a nation sitting just next to the Russian border — and understanding that the whole weight of war will be borne by your own people. These are your cities will be attacked and destroyed, your people will be killed by bombs and missiles, captured, imprisoned, tortured, raped, and children taken away and raised as “Russians”. Are you ready to have at least one of your cities bear the fate of Mariupol? Bucha? Bakhmut? That’s a whole different perspective.
Putin has studied both Hitler’s and the US’ and USSR’s playbooks of the past.
He remembers how Hitler annexed Austria without a fight. He remembers how Hitler captured Czechia without a fight (and with some help from Czech neighbors — Hungary and Poland, as well as the newly independent Slovakia). He remembers how the government of the great French Empire decided in 1940 that the national dignity and sovereignty, or some territories and some hundreds of thousands of people were not worth the fight.
Putin knows that a will to fight is an important strategic factor.
Putin knows that fear of death is an important strategic factor.
He remembers all the US-assisted coups in Latin America and USSR-assisted coups in Africa back in the 1960s through the 1980s.
This is his life, his youth, his way of doing things. And he sees nothing that can stop him from doing it now.
The West is still living in the hippy dreams come true post-Cold War world of the love and peace and freedom of 1990-ies (as well as the global economic cooperation for the corporations, “Greed is Good”). Maybe a bit of post-9/11 2000s and 2010s.
Instead, Putin is living in the hardcore 1970s. Soviet-sponsored terrorism in Western Europe and internationally; coups in Africa; red-hot Middle East; dictatorships in Spain, Greece, and Portugal. Iranian Islamic revolution. The Troubles in Great Britain. The Folklands War. Great stuff.
There was a NATO, but also the Warsaw Pact. There was an early version of the EU, but also the Soviet-dominated COMECON.
The true Golden Age of geopolitics. For Putin.
Putin and Russia are doing Sun Tzu—style warfare. You don’t go to an open fight unless you are sure of victory. Until then, you work — and wait — to create the conditions for a successful fight. Or maybe you would not need an open fight altogether.
There is a popular term among Russian nationalists/imperialists — “the long will of the Russian state”. It means that you shall maintain focus and pressure in your area of interest as long as it takes. If necessary, for decades and generations.
Putin and his team of Ruscists have that kind of will. Unlike Western politicians, they are not limited by 4- or 5-year election cycles. They don’t have internal political competition. Then can just concentrate all the country’s resources on their goal, just wait and press and infiltrate as long as it takes.
People joke that Putin cannot use the internet and he receives internet publications as print-outs. This may be true. But he perfectly knows how to use - and abuse - all the modern technologies to fight the war. Massive disinformation through media and rumors (read “social networks” of today), use of non-conformists and opposition voices (read “bloggers” and “celebrities”) – all of that is not new technology, this is old stuff that KGB has successfully used back in the 1970s.
A great part of the modern Western population (“zoomers”) may have grown in the Metaverse and consider themselves smart guys who can stand up to their own (democratic) governments. But “boomer” Putin and Ruscist Russia are different types of animals. These animals have been trained to kill people and physically destroy and subjugate whole nations and whole classes of people. Your knowledge of ChatGPT or blockchain would not help you when someone cuts electricity in your home, breaks in, and starts to hit your fingers with a hammer, one by one – so that the neighbors could hear your screams for hours, so that they were in the proper mood when Putin comes to them with his offer.
In the end, one of the latest major leaks of US secret information was made by a young American serviceman using Discord – a popular piece of modern internet technology.
The guy who has stolen USD 2 billion via Wirecard is suspected to have been a Russian spy.
Telegram, the least transparent but very popular social network platform, is owned and managed by a person with alleged Russian government connections/influences.
And so on. Russia is actually quite good in modern and advanced technologies, but in its own way.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was just a short-term mistake. Yes, there was a miscalculation of Ukraine’s ability to unite and fight — and die; a miscalculation of Zelensky's personality; a miscalculation of the shock — and initial response — by the West.
But the long-term, strategic calculation seems to have been right.
Russian (plus Belorussian) economic and military resources are enormously larger than Ukrainian.
As we can see now, for the purposes of the war in and against Ukraine, here and now, Russian military resources prove to be larger than all the Western resources combined — despite all the economic might of the West.
The fact that the war is being fought almost entirely on the territory of Ukraine ensures that the balance of economies has shifted even more towards Russian supremacy. And each day of fighting Ukraine becomes weaker, while Russia stays… quite well.
The West has been vocal in support of Ukraine, but the action was limited. It was a bit stronger than Putin expected — there were deliveries of some good weapons for a big war — but it was not something that could change the war strategically. The West did not equip Ukraine to wage a “NATO-style war” with aerial supremacy. The West did not send a single soldier or a single military unit to Ukraine. In terms of strategy, and, taking into account the scale of the war, all the West did was to send to Ukraine some weapons.
The West also bailed out — and continues to do it — the collapsing Ukrainian economy and public finances. Which was important for Ukraine just to survive and to carry on, but was far from allowing Ukraine to match the economic might of its enemy.
The trade/economic sanctions were a bit harder than Putin expected. But the key factor is that he did expect them. He prepared. He made arrangements and calculations. He studied the Iranian experience of living — and growing — for decades under the Western “sanctions”. His government and central bank responded to the crisis very well.
The only real sanctions that can do something in this world is a UN Security Council full trading embargo. But, Putin is a member of the same Security Council with a veto power. And his good friend Xi is a veto member as well.
Strategically, the sanctions were — and remain to be — weak.
Ukraine is a young political nation. It has numerous unresolved internal problems. It did not have an efficient government and a proper balance of powers in 2022. It did not have any institutional or generational experience of governance while fighting a big war against a superior enemy (except for Stalin’s WWII style of warfare, which is not the proper example for many obvious reasons). Ukrainian economy and society suffered painful losses after the Russian invasion of 2014 and only began to recover to the pre-2014 levels by 2021. For the world, it’s just the second year of the war. But for millions of Ukrainians, it is the 10th year of war. Or the second war in just 10 years, if we consider 2015-2021 to be a relatively peaceful period (there was little open fighting, but a lot of Russian subversive, or “hybrid”, warfare).
And, in the long war of attrition, all those weaknesses of Ukraine come to the surface.
It also really hurts when I read, including here at Daily Kos, that Putin/Russia “is losing”, or the “war is ok” — with the proof being that Russia can not move the front line for almost a year by now, that Russia is suffering significant casualties every day, that something other bad happens to Russia, or that there is an assumed long-term trend that is negative to Russia.
I can understand that — for a guy sitting somewhere across the ocean and just looking at the map and some of the figures it looks fine. Like, globally, Putin and Russia appear to be in a tough situation. So we can forget about them — the war will eventually resolve itself somehow in a positive direction — and turn our attention to something else.
However, for me being a Ukrainian in Ukraine, there are two problems:
First, that “non-moving” front line on the map consumes hundreds of Ukrainian lives and billions of dollars every day. In the occupied territories, the repression regime tightens. Millions of Ukrainians are being increasingly pressured into refusing their identity and becoming “Russians”. Russia is ruthlessly effective in digesting captured populations.
Just to remember, in Russia, you don’t have any freedom of speech, no freedom of religion, no right to elect or be elected, and no right to human dignity. You can only do business if you fully support (better publicly) the government. You can only tell your children that the government is right.
It’s 1984 – but not a one-time experience – it is your everyday life. Yes, you can live there and live your private life to a certain extent – but an ever-increasing part of your life, your time, your attention, your money, your social life – belongs to the state — or is only possible if follow the guidelines provided by the state. You can live, but live as an animal in a corral.
And the fear – unless you can wholeheartedly remake yourself into a sincere Ruscist, you live in constant fear — not to show your true thoughts and attitudes, not to be sucked into the state action to become a tool for brainwashing or repressing other people.
Those who resist, are arrested and disappear in the Russian prisons. Or are found dead and mutilated somewhere near the city.
And that is the everyday reality in Ukraine. Here, a lot happens every day.
Ukrainians hold tight, despite all difficulties, but every day, we become weaker. One more friend lost at the front line, one more mother devastated by the grief for her son, one more orphan without a mother or a father, one more woman or kid seeking peace and refuge abroad, one more house lost, one more worker mobilized to the army, one more wounded soldier that has to be cared for. One more strike of grief, anger, helplessness, fear, desperation. How much more can Ukrainians last?
I think, we will be able to last for some more time. We do not surrender easily, and we know well what is at stake for us. But life does not get easier here. It gets worse. The stress accumulates gradually, and then, at some point, we – as a society – may just wear out. And you may find the Ukrainian government signing a French Vichy-style peace treaty with Moscow that proclaims Ukrainian “neutrality” and “independence”, but also allows Russian military bases at the border with the EU. Or Zelensky finally taking the ride offered to him on the first day of the war. Or the tired front collapsing, and Russia snatching another several regions of Ukraine – and swallowing another several millions of Ukrainians. Or anything like that – something that had happened in similar situations with many other nations many times before.
Second, this is exactly what Putin wants you to think. Nothing is happening here; things have calmed down; go mind your business. This is what Putin wants you to think and to do (or, rather, not to do).
But while Putin urges everybody in the world not to act, Putin acts. He is increasing military production. He is pumping men and materials to the front line every day. He and his people travel the world to get more weapons, undermine Western sanctions, and foment conflict anywhere in the world to distract the world’s attention.
He is stirring Polish farmers to close the EU border with Ukraine. He is doing military coups in Africa to distract European countries and businesses with their interests there. He finances all terrorists and extremists he can find. He increases military and economic cooperation with China, Iran, and North Korea. He pumps money into the Western media and opinion leaders. His secret service works on producing and obtaining blackmail and other influence materials against Western politicians and businessmen. Probably not them directly, but their close aides and advisers.
While the West is hesitating, or becomes bored, or distracted, Putin is acting.
You can read more Ukraine stories by me following this link.