UPDATE: Thursday, Feb 1, 2024 · 7:29:41 PM +00:00
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Irontortoise
Some interesting analysis from World Politcs Review:
The fact that EU leaders were able to reach a consensus on this aid package is also a victory for Brussels, not just because the leaders reached an agreement but also because of how they did so. EU leaders have in the past overcome Orban’s veto via transactionalism, unlocking funds for Hungary that had been frozen by Brussels over rule-of-law violations. This time, however, EU leaders reportedly gained Orban’s support without conceding anything material, signaling that the EU is still capable of acting in unanimity on major issues. Nearly two years after Russia invaded Ukraine, that’s a good sign for both Brussels and Kyiv.
This could be momentous. The AP and others are reporting today:
The leaders of the 27 European Union countries sealed a deal on Thursday to provide Ukraine with a new 50 billion-euro ($54 billion) support package for its war-ravaged economy after Hungary backed down from its threats to veto the move.
European Council President Charles Michel announced the agreement that was reached in the first hour of a summit that he was chairing in Brussels.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed it as a “very important” decision. His country could receive the first tranche of funds as soon as March, once the European Parliament has endorsed the deal.
That Hungary lifted its veto, and so quickly, came as a surprise.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán raised staunch objections to the financial aid package in December and blocked its adoption, and he had threatened to do the same in recent days. The populist leader's government has been in a dispute with the European Commission, the EU's executive branch, over Hungary's alleged democratic backsliding and had some of its own funding withheld as a result.
Meanwhile, in another surprise move Reuters is also reporting that Hungary’s parliament will be meeting next week instead of at the end of February:
Hungary's parliament will meet on Monday at the request of opposition parties with the ratification of Sweden's NATO bid expected to be on the agenda, a document on parliament's website showed on Thursday.
But it was not clear if ruling Fidesz party lawmakers, who hold a large majority in parliament, would attend the extraordinary meeting, meaning it would not be able to ratify Sweden's bid.
Hungary is the only NATO member that has not approved Sweden's application to join the alliance.
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Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan signed Sweden's accession documents in late January, leaving Hungary as the last hold-out.
Earlier on Thursday, Orban's chief of staff said Fidesz lawmakers wanted to see steps from Sweden to strengthen confidence before they can approve its NATO bid. He did not elaborate on what those steps were.
So while this might not be a totally done deal yet, it looks like Orban has finally conceded defeat over both issues, perhaps concluding that being Putin’s Trojan Horse puppet in both the EU and NATO might not be in his (or Hungary’s) long-term interest after all.