Ahhh the polls…. THE POLLS, everyone seems to be either freaking out or getting overly optimistic about this or that poll.
While it appears Biden’s numbers are turning around depending on what poll you look at but it's all just noise at this point in the race in my eyes. I have posted this many times around here, but Reagan, Clinton, Bush 2, and Obama were all really far behind their potential rivals a year out from their perspective second-term elections, yet they all won, and pretty handily.
Polls a year or so out from an election don’t really tell us much because good or bad (I happen to believe it’s in that “bad” category), the vast majority of Americans are not tuned into politics like you and I, dear reader.
Polling does start to get more worthwhile a few months out from the election after ads start running and people start getting into the details of the race. And in the case of Trump vs. Biden, I think the numbers will shift pretty dramatically in Biden’s favor when his team starts running ads using Trump’s own words. Talking about being a dictator on day one and how he takes full credit for the reversal of Roe is going to be a serious (and I mean SEROUS) problem for Trump in the run-up to the election.
All of that said, I recommend taking polling right now with a grain of salt. It’s generally okay but I wouldn’t eat a full meal of salt only if you know what I mean.
BUT
If you are interested in the state of the race as it stands now, I have two recommendations for you.
First, I would look at results from the only polling that really matters, elections. Specificlly elections held over the last year or so since Dobbs.
In state and local elections around the country, Democrats have been doing pretty damn well thank you very much. “Well” to the tune of between 9 and 11 points over the district (or whatever) average. I would not expect that 10+ average to hold up in a general election where the presidency is on the line (like this Nov.), but even half of that, call it a 5-point swing, would make for a massive shift in our political landscape.
I mean, massive. As in generational level changes could happen with a 5 or 6 point swing toward Democrats up and down the ticket.
Secondly, the other place I would look to gauge the temperature of the country is money.
Like it or not, money is extremely important to people. Everything is connected to it in our society: family, work, health, leisure, food, self-esteem; it’s all wrapped up in how much money you have and how much you can afford to spend.
I know none of that comes as new news to anyone living in our society… I only wanted to focus on how important that is because it’s extremely rare for people to give away money without some expected benefit to them OR (in the case of charitable giving) without knowing their money will be put to good use.
So donations to political campaigns are a HUGE tell of how people feel about a candidate and/or a whole party. People give money to political campaigns when the campaign aligns with their values and social/cultural perspectives.
AND people give money when they feel like their chosen candidate has a good shot at winning, no one wants to give money to a loser. Ron DeSatan is a good example, when people thought he was the Trump replacement he was raking in cash, as soon as they saw how poor he was on the campaign trail they realized he wasn’t going to win anything and stopped giving him money, that’s when the wheels fell off.
So… yeah.… money…. it’s a good indication of people’s mood. Frankly, if a polling firm calls me to ask about my feelings on a candidate I support, I am going to tell them what I think makes my candidate look the best. But that doesn’t mean I am going to give my hard-earned money to that candidate if they don’t have a chance of winning. Even I dear reader, will not give my money to just any candidate even if I believe they line up perfectly with my values and social/cultural viewpoint.
And what is “the money” telling us at this point in the cycle you ask?
Republican Party reveals it's had the worst fundraising year in a decade reports Raw Story:
The Guardian's Hugo Lowell noted new numbers released by the Federal Elections Commission show the Republican National Committee has just $8 million cash on hand at the end of 2023 after the lowest fundraising year since 2013, which was the year after Republicans lost a presidential race.
8 Million is an astonishingly small number for a national committee. For a little comparison to make that point really hit home:
Just a few months ago, the Washington Post reported that there was just $9.1 million in the bank as of Oct. 30, 2023. At that time, it was the lowest the FEC showed for the party since Feb. 2015, and it dropped further in the remaining months of the year.
"That compares with about $20 million at the same point in the 2016 election cycle and about $61 million four years ago, when Trump was in the White House," the Post reported at the time.
So yeah, we are talking about $8 million now (and shrinking) vs. $20 million and $61 million in recent cycles. Talk about tired of winning huh?
Let’s do a little contrast and compare here between the parties at a larger scale:
To make sure the idea isn’t missed here, Democrats have a lot more money on hand now and that is after they already spent a lot more for the current cycle.
That’s a big difference in total dollars, but let’s look at Biden vs. Trump specifically:
President Joe Biden’s operation touted finishing 2023 with $117 million on hand between the campaign and its affiliated committees. Future Forward, the outside group boosting Biden’s campaign, said it brought in $208 million in the last half of the year, but didn’t yet provide a cash-on-hand figure. The full picture is not yet apparent for Trump. His MAGA Inc. super PAC said it entered 2024 with $23 million on hand, but there are also not-yet-announced figures from his campaign and his other affiliated committees to consider.
The jury is still out on current fundraising numbers, but it sure does look like Biden is in a much, much better position than Trump at this stage…. Trump still has to get through the primary, AND he is using his money to pay legal fees.
All of the above says to me, something is a-brewing in the American electorate.
I am NOT saying we have this in the bag and we should walk away thinking the job is finished, far from it!
I am saying that if we do the work, keep donating time and money whenever possible to GOT — M’Fn — V, we have a rare opportunity to make some serious positive changes to our political environment.
Polling is nice, but it’s much better to look at what people are spending their money on and who they are actually voting for. That’s a much better yardstick in my eyes, at least at this stage, and both metrics are pointing to a potentially big Democratic advantage.