One of the best films on American history is without doubt Steven Spielberg's 2012 film “Lincoln.” I am sure most of the readers of this site have seen the film at least once, if not multiple times. Many, I am also sure, can easily recall their favorite scenes from the film such as Thaddeus Steven’s speech in the House or Lincoln’s retelling of the Ethan Allen story. For me, however, my favorite scenes of the film are when Lincoln visits the battle site of Petersburg and then confers with General Grant.
This scene:
When I watch that scene, especially now in 2024, I think of the scene with Petersburg and Lincoln’s conversation in a modern context. I don’t see Confederate and Union Soldiers’ bodies — I imagine the more than 1.2 million Americans who have died from Covid-19. When I see Lincoln and Grant talking about what to do with the defeated Confederates, I imagine the conversation that has to take place after we win against MAGA in 2024. We will win against MAGA in 2024.
Before I get to the “after 2024” part of my discussion, I do want to briefly (briefly for my typical long-winded writing style) outline why I am assured as can be that we will soundly defeat MAGAism in 2024 ( I can do a longer discussion in another diary, but it is not my ultimate point here for this diary). Ignoring polls, as it has been empirically shown that polls can’t be trusted (polls are still saying we’re due for the Red Wave that was originally coming in 2020 — any day now, they pinky promise), all signs point to a massive Blue Wave in 2024.
Take a quick look at Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys to the White House.” www.american.edu/... Lichtman’s 13 keys have been used by Lichtman to accurately predict presidential elections for the past 40 years (including 2016 and 2020). Lichtman also notes that only one presidential election was ever influenced by a factor outside of his 13 Keys — when General Sherman gave Abraham Lincoln a massive victory by “marching to the sea,” which saved Lincoln’s reelection campaign from disaster. I don’t see a rogue factor like “Sherman’s March to the Sea” saving Trump.
If you look at Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys to the White House,” Biden and Democrats are in pretty good shape for 2024 considering that:
1) we won midterms in 2022 — we were supposed to have a massive Red-Wave in dozens of districts that Trump had lop-sided victories in 2020 and 2016 which never materialized,
2) there is no serious competition among Democrats to try to oust Biden (No, Dean Phillips, you do not count as “serious” competition),
3) Biden is an incumbent,
4) there highly highly likely will NOT be a significant 3rd party or Independent campaign (no Gary Johnsons or Theodore Roosevelts),
5) our short term economy is hitting it out of the ballpark (so much so even FOX admitted it),
6) our long term economy (the state of our economy between now and November) will probably also be hitting it out of the ballpark (we still have billions that are being funneled into infrastructure reconstruction which will continue to juice our growth),
7) Biden has effected massive changes in national policy with all the legislation he has passed,
8) social unrest is comparatively mild at best (we’re not dealing with Covid-19 now like we were in 2019-2020 under Trump),
9) Biden is facing NO scandals,
10) Biden hasn’t suffered any major foreign/military disasters (the withdrawal from Afghanistan on the whole has been more popular with Americans as opposed to having remained there — Israel is not enough to drag Biden down and make him lose at the ballot box),
11) Biden’s foreign policy has been massively successful in rebuilding NATO, reestablishing the US as the global leader, and supporting Ukraine against Russia,
12) Biden is 10-fold more charismatic than Trump, and there’s something to be said about Biden’s persona as a warm grandfather (and Dark Brandon), and lastly
13) Trump (the challenger candidate) is widely regarded as not only uncharismatic but also a traitor. Of all presidential candidates, Trump might be one of the most hated individuals in American history.
I am not an expert, but by just going down the Lichtman list I’d say we and Biden are in pretty good shape.
Here is Allan Lichtman explaining his “13 Keys” in more detail about a week ago on Times Radio:
To add to what I just said, we also have to look at the voting successes we (Democrats) have had since 2016. 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, and now 2024 have all been massive successes for Democrats, and we show no signs whatsoever of losing our momentum. I do not believe I need to rehash the victory we’ve been celebrating in New York and other places from two days ago. We have a massive agenda that the public is rallying behind: gender rights (abortion), economic policy, foreign policy (the Republicans are Putin pawns and now they’ve given up the advantage they had on immigration policy by killing the Border Deal), firearm law reform, and a national mandate to protect this country from growing fascism. We hold so many of the cards, that support for Republicans (Trump) has been hemorrhaging catastrophically — especially among Republicans. Just look at this summation of Trump’s dwindling support:
Trump lost 2020 with 91% of the Republican vote. Trump is now, in primaries, getting 80% or less of the Republican vote. Even if every registered “Independent” voted for Trump, that would not be enough for Trump to catch up with Biden (who has over 96% of Democratic support just from the S.C. primary).
As if everything I’ve said weren’t enough, Democrats are also now out-fundraising Republicans across the board. RNC offices across the country are bankrupt, about to go bankrupt, or are in the middle of embezzlement investigations brought to light by bankruptcy — and this revelation came prior to Trump putting his daughter-in-law in charge of the RNC. We all know that money is not going to Trump’s campaign, rather straight to Trump’s legal expenses (“every single penny”).
To wrap up my “brief” explanation on why I believe we are okay for 2024, Democrats have been winning, Democrats hold all of the cards on mandates and the national agenda, Democrats are not mired with lawsuits and indictments, Democrats have been successful on nearly all policies across the board, and the RNC is now effectively broke (Russia is too busy fighting a war to lend real cash — and China’s economy is too much of a mess to do the same). Democrats have decisively gained the momentum.
I like our odds.
SO, that raises the question: What do we do after 2024? What do we do when, as Jon Meacham puts it, “the battle for the soul of America” has been won? I believe part of the answer resides in the numerous Republicans who are saying that “they will never support Trump, MAGA, or the Republican Party ever again.”
The greatest PSYOP that the Republican Party (magnified by Trump and MAGA) has executed was to divide the American people. Not just to convince members of the Republican Party that “liberals” and Democrats were the enemy (“They’re all Commies!!!”), but to also convince Democrats and people on the liberal Left that Republicans are the enemy! Just look how much the stigma has been perpetrated that “all Republicans are dumb,” “they’re traitors,” and so on. For many (like Trump or Marjorie Taylor Green), yes they are dumb traitors, and they will receive the full justice of the law. But not all of the Republicans are dumb, traitors, or dumb traitors.
There are many voices of reason among what used to be the GOP, and they are waking up from the siren-song that the Republican Party has been singing for decades:
I believe that as we move forwards, we have to welcome and embrace the members of the GOP who have become disillusioned with the Republican Party, MAGA, and Trumpism. We cannot treat them as fools. We cannot treat them as traitors. We cannot punish them. No. The ones who leave, especially the ones who originally supported Trump and are now leaving, we must welcome with open arms and comfort the same way we would any victim of a crime. Trump and the Republican Party lied to all of us. Trump and the Republican Party criminally deceived the United States — that makes the people who used to support them just as much a victim as anyone else.
We have to treat the disillusioned Right the same way Lincoln wanted to treat the defeated Confederates, with forgiveness and compassion.
Our answer after victory cannot be retribution or a rebuke of all conservatives. Democrats must lead by example to show conservative that Democrats were right all along.
We are all Americans. Once the veil of MAGAism is lifted, we must show them that the American Dream is real, that there are “good guys” to this story. I am not so naïve to think that MAGAism will ever fully disappear. I know remnants of fascism will always remain everywhere, but it is the perpetrators who must be punished, not the ones who were taken advantage of. It is beholden to us to ensure no one is left behind.
We still have a lot of work to do. The battle is not over yet. If we’re at the same point of the movie as the scene from “Lincoln” I referenced, we still have to end the war and pass the 13th Amendment. BUT, when we’ve won, let us put an end to the suffering. Let us move forwards, together.