While we were in New York, in the midst of an intense GOTV effort to elect Tom Suozzi to replace George Santos, there was a surprise. At the last minute, former Governor Larry Hogan jumped into the race for the open U.S. Senate seat in Maryland, “a surprising move that immediately made the state a top battleground for control of the chamber.”
Hogan led deeply Democratic Maryland for two terms and left office with high approval ratings. He had previously ruled out a run for Senate in 2022 to chase a potential presidential bid, which he abandoned last year.
National Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), again recruited Hogan this year. The last-minute bid launched so quickly his campaign website was not finished as his announcement video landed.
[...]
McConnell called the recruitment a “boost” to Republican efforts to take back the Senate majority. The GOP’s top targets are the open seat of West Virginia, where Gov. Jim Justice is running as a Republican and on a glide path to victory, and the red states of Montana and Ohio, where Democratic incumbents are hoping to keep their seats.
The significance of Hogan’s surprise entry is that we have an (electorally) able Republican with prior success on the statewide ballot running while the two credible Democratic candidates don’t have similar experience running statewide. Which always makes it tricky.
IOW, not the news i wanted to hear before election day in New York.
The primary mission of Hope Springs from Field PAC is Early Organizing in Senate (and Electoral College) Swing states and while no one is ready to call Maryland a swing state, retaining the Senate is so critical (if, for no other reason that they vote on SCOTUS nominees) that it is definitely on our radar.
“Hogan has been able to transcend Maryland’s blue-state ethos, twice winning the governor’s office and routinely earning job approval ratings in the 70s.” Roll Call, one of the newspapers that is distributed on Capitol Hill, notes that “The Democratic Senate majority remains extremely vulnerable and the battleground of Senate seats has shifted slightly.” Hogan’s candidacy forces Democrats to spend time, money, energy and attention defending the Maryland seat.
But here’s my concern: Hogan has been successful at connecting with all kinds of voters that other Republicans haven’t, not just swing voters but Democrats, as well. He’s won in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1, running against a sitting Lt. Governor while using public financing (not exactly something Republicans do). It would be crazy not to take his candidacy seriously.
The stakes are just too high.
From the beginning, Hope Springs from Field has taken a very systematic approach to Early Organizing. We start our Voter Contact efforts as soon as possible, weather depending, with the belief that Canvassing is an activity that grows exponentially. Exponential growth means that they earlier we start, the “higher” we go (specifically, the more volunteers we attract to the activity and the more doors that will be knocked). You can see that from the graphic to the right.
Hope Springs volunteers employ a unique approach to voter contact — a voter-led discussion driven by our Issues Survey. This means that voters fill in the blanks, so to speak, allowing us to collect useful data that assists efforts to Get Out the Vote in the Fall. For example, we always start by asking if they are registered to vote at their current address. If not, we offer to register them to vote, generally through the state’s voter registration website.
And we ask voters if they are single issue voters, and, if so, what is their single issue. We preface this question with several questions about what issues concern them right now. So by the time we ask about being a single issue voter, they have had time to think about what issues are critical to their vote. About 20% of the voters we talk to will identify as single issue voters and they never seem to mind telling you what it is.
We also ask if voters have concerns about the upcoming election. We find this question prompts all kinds of responses, especially among minority communities. When we canvassed the Kemp-Warnock precincts for the Georgia Senate Runoff in 2022, we found this query would quickly identify MAGA supporters (although we only talked to a few in the 3 years we’ve been doing this). But this fits neatly with our Third Mission: Turning out the Vote and making sure that our votes count.
Republicans have gone out of their way to make it difficult not only to vote but to have our votes counted. Our volunteers address this right off the bat my asking voters if they are registered to vote at their current address. When we ask voters if they have any concerns about the upcoming election, we try to find out if they are a witness to something, iow, if they should fill out an Incident Report. Voter Incident Reports help to determine if we can anticipate problems in the next election, as election issues have historically been repeated over time in the same counties and precincts. They also provide lawyers with back-up when they need to go to court, especially on election day.
But we have found that the concept of Super Compliance appeals to judges who have to rule on things like extending voting hours or removing a disruptive Poll Watcher.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since 2021 in a grassroots-led effort to prepare Electoral Battlegrounds in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. We believe that in-person voter contact that is interactive and volunteer-driven is key to success in 2024. But we need your help.
We will also continue our Alliance with Black Churches in Maryland. We work with Black Churches in their voter registration and education drives, specifically by matching their Membership Rolls with the voter file to determine if they have voters who are registered at a previous address or are currently not registered to vote. This grew out of an effort in Georgia with the AME Churches there and was successfully expanded to other African-American congregations. Hope Springs has matched the church rolls of 1,137 congregations to the voter file in the last three years. There are 134 AME churches in Maryland and D6 leadership has already approached the Maryland region about their success in Georgia using this approach.
Maryland also has four of America's HBCUs and we have had success in helping to mobilize and motivate students at Historically Black Colleges and Universities in getting involved in campaigns and politics. This is also something we hope to continue in Maryland.
Finally, we have found that suburban and minority neighborhoods really respond to our walking with Constituent Service Request forms. One of the things we learned by canvassing in the Black Belt of Georgia is that there were voters who felt like their voices and needs were being ignored and we had incredible response to CSRs, especially when public officials acted upon them.
Democrats are fielding two major candidates in this race. Neither have been on the statewide ballot before. Rep. David Trone is one of the wealthiest Members of Congress and is the co-founder of the popular Total Wine & More chain. He currently serves the 6th CD in Maryland, the light green Congressional District in the Northwest of the state (Frederick-Hagerstown-Cumberland). He had previously run for Congress in MD-08, losing to then-State Senator Jamie Raskin in 2016. Trone still resides in Raskin’s district.
Trone’s primary opponent for the May 14th primary is Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. Prince George’s County is the second largest county is Maryland with about 1 Million residents. Trone’s Congressional District is about 3/4s of that. Trone definitely has the advantage financially (who is largely self-funding his run), but Alsobrooks has racked up impressive endorsements, winning the support of the governor and Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen. Alsobrooks had a respectable $3.1 million in the bank as of Dec. 31. Inside Elections notes that Alsobrooks’ “allies believe Trone’s support is soft and that once she begins advertising (particularly about Trone’s history of political donations to Republicans through his company), she will re-establish herself in the race.”
The winner on May 14th gets the Mitch McConnell treatment. Hogan’s surprising late entry is widely seen as a huge victory for McConnell, who has a little trouble in his caucus with Trump’s run for president. Roll Call writes that “it was a good week for Mitch McConnell.” The NYTimes continues:
His campaign for the Senate is expected to strengthen the Republican bid to win the majority. The party is expected to gain a seat in West Virginia after Senator Joe Manchin III, a Democrat, announced he would not seek re-election, and it is also mounting competitive campaigns in Montana, Ohio and Arizona — all of which would be Republican pickups.
Republicans need to flip two seats to win back power if President Biden is re-elected, but just one if Mr. Trump or another Republican captures the White House.
Still, the Washington Post throws a little shade on Hogan’s bid:
Democratic operatives were quick to point out that Hogan has never run in a presidential year nor had to explain to Maryland voters how he would act on federal legislation. On abortion, for example, he has described himself as an antiabortion Catholic but that rights to the procedure were a matter of settled law in Maryland. On gun control, he backed a red-flag law and a ban on the sales of bump stocks, but also had high ratings from the National Rifle Association. Democrats were quick to criticize Hogan’s candidacy as an opportunity for Republicans to seize more power in Washington.
There is no doubt, though, that the Democratic majority in the Senate remains extremely vulnerable and the battleground of Senate seats has shifted. “His entry was a big boost for Senate Republicans who already enjoy a favorable 2024 map, with Ohio, Montana, Nevada and Arizona being potential pickup opportunities. West Virginia is already expected to flip Republican after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said he would not be seeking reelection.” Still, a Republican has not won a U.S. Senate election in Maryland since 1980.
Hogan is considered a moderate in the Republican party but that designation may be reset if the Senate election is waged on the Reproductive Freedom battleground. Maryland will vote on a constitutional amending protecting abortion rights this November, and Hogan (a Catholic) resisted expanding abortion rights when he was Governor.
But Hogan is definitely a strong candidate, and we don’t know yet if the Democrats fielded one. We won’t know until we see the campaigns unfold. Self-funders rarely succeed and i am normally weary about candidates who self-fund. There are tremendous advantages to building up a strong fund-raising and organizational base to win an election. Candidates with money look for shortcuts and there really are no shortcuts to the Senate.
If you are able to contribute to our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please do. We need your help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
You can follow that link for our mailing address, as well (for those who would rather send us a check). Thank you for your support! This work depends on you!