Why would she have to drop out? The probability of a win won't be significantly less at that time than now. There isn't some secret list of every MAGA member. So small donors donating to her can't be removed from that list as it doesn't exist and it's not clear how the knowledge of a small donor's donation would become known to Trump or how he could keep up with that. 94+% of her supporters oppose Trump. The really wealthy people don't like anybody telling them what to do. She can keep going as long as she has funds and that may not dry up.
And her path is the same as it has been: Trump gets convicted of a one or more felonies of one or more prosecutions. His general election polling collapses as 25 to 59% of the vote that he would have had in November goes away. His cognitive decline and terrible mental health further justify it. And now the entire Republican Party that holds elected office in Congress unites against him because they killed that he hurts their chances at being in the majority and because they know he has no chance at winning the White House.
What happens at that point is unclear. Does he sabotage them for their lack of loyalty as he is a malignant narcissist?
Can his delegates choose to go to somebody else? Is that legal? What about funding? His funding can't go to anybody else, but it could go to the RNC, but he has to choose to do that.
However, does he want to be pardoned? Might that be offered behind closed and locked doors if he is a good little boy and supports her and the Republican Party?
That's her only shot. I believe that it is more likely than not that he is convicted of at least one felony and probably all felony charges from at least two prosecutions before election day and his first set of felony convictions happens before the Summer and probably his second set of felony convictions happens before the Republican National Convention.
The people who vote for him in the primaries are only half to at most two thirds of what he needs to even be competitive in the general election. The difference is composed mostly of people who would not vote for him if he is convicted of at least one felony or set of felonies and certainly not if he is convicted of two sets of felonies.
The Campaign Finance / Election Interference case will be up first near the end of March. I suspect despite current reporting that the federal attempted coup / Obstruction of an Official Constitutionally Mandated Event would be second. I don't know if the willful retention of classified documents case gets finished before election day as it is so complex in terms of what has to be done for the trial.
So, that is her one and only path. It was her path at the beginning of the primary, it is her path now, and it is her only path in the future. It doesn't change. I don't see any reason those who have been donating to her as small donors would stop. I don't believe that big donors who are wealthier than Trump are going to stop donating to Haley because Trump said so. Therefore, I see no reason for her to suspend her campaign.
I should add this because it addresses a possible objection:
MAGA won't support her in 2028 and being anti-Trump might help her. Either way, she has to know that if things don't change in the Republican Party in regard to Trump (ie. If he continues to own and dominate it and almost all elected Republicans and almost all Republican Party primary voters) , then she won't be the nominee in 2028. So, 2028 isn't a motive for her to suspend her campaign.
That is a legitimate argument, no doubt. However, has she not already gone too far to get the nomination in 2MAGA
028 if Trump still runs things? I think she has and I suspect that she knows this.
Discuss.