The prospects for a world defined by the rule of law, peace, and the cooperation of great powers grow dimmer by the week.
The Russia/China orbit and its allies are waging a new Cold War against the United States and its allies. Putin invaded Ukraine to wipe the nation out and integrate it into Russia. He sees himself as a modern Peter the Great and wants to create a greater Russia. The People’s Republic of China threatens Taiwan, as the state sees the successful democratic nation as a wayward providence. US intelligence services are reporting that Russia might have a weapon in space by the end of the year.
The current Cold War is geopolitical, but authoritarian political systems play a role as well, with Russia and China favoring any system that doesn’t conform with the Western democratic republic. In contrast, the US and its allies favor the form, at least part of the time. Some authoritarian systems are bandwagoning with the US, such as Narendra Modi’s India, as it is helping the US contain China. If the US wants to continue to serve as a role model for the democratic system, it should stay away from authoritarian leadership, something that’s not guaranteed.
During the first Cold War, and especially during the latter part of the Cold War and in the years after the Cold War, the US and Russia cooperated to draw down the number of nuclear weapons and conventional forces in the world in several arms control treaties. However, a long list of treaties is no more due to the current tensions in the latest Cold War. The Conventional Armed Forces Treaty in Europe is the latest casualty of international geopolitical tensions. Russia quit the treaty last summer.
Trying to find a sense of order in a world of geopolitical conflicts, canceled treaties, and rising defense budgets won’t be easy. However, we should look to history to try and manage some sort of peace out of the current situation. After the Napoleonic Wars, the US War of 1812 was a sideshow to this; the great European Powers – Austria, the United Kingdom, France, Russian, Prussia, and other lesser powers - held a conference to manage the issues of France’s defeat in the war, the Congress of Vienna. The Treaty of Paris came out of the Congress of Vienna, and it set the boundaries of France and restored territories to other nations. It also established peace between France and Great Britain, Russia, Austria, Russia, and Prussia based on a just distribution of forces among the powers.
The US must call for a high-profile diplomatic conference with the Chinese and Russians. The conference should follow the contours of the Congress of Vienna and aim for something like the Treaty of Paris. This will be tough, considering Russia is determined to build an empire based on its former empire, and China has its eyes set on Taiwan. The US orbit isn’t dealing with anything like the defeated France. This conference should set some boundaries for the current Cold War. It could be the start of defusing tensions on the world stage, which will most likely occur over decades. Such a conference would be more productive if cooler heads win in China and Russia fails to take Ukraine.
More details of the conference? That cannot be predicted until the conference happens. However, an attempt at working out a power balance in our lawless world is better than the status quo.
Jason Sibert is the Lead Writer of the Peace Economy Project