As part of the proposal, the government will be led by officials and experts who are not affiliated with the actual [Hamas] organization, and will receive support from Dahlan, Cairo and [Qatar]. The PA's concerns also stem from the strengthening connections between the UAE, which sponsors Dahlan, and Egypt, which is in close contact with Hamas.
Egypt announced that the <big>UAE would invest $35 billion to stabilize the Egyptian economy,</big> which has been severely affected by the Houthi's attacks [on international shipping] along the Red Sea [on top of it’s existing working-class impoverishment]. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisis warned this week that his country had lost between 40 and 50 percent of the Suez Canal's revenues, stressing that before the Houthi crisis, Egypt's canal revenues came in at 10 billion dollars a year.
A former Palestinian official, who is currently involved in talks with Egypt, Russia and Hamas, also confirmed to Haaretz that there is a plan to establish a temporary government in the Gaza Strip which will work primarily to address Gaza's humanitarian and social crisis.
PA President Mahmoud Abbas yesterday dispatched council members Majed Faraj, chief of the General Intelligence Service, and Secretary-General Hussein al-Sheikh, to Amman ahead of Abbas' planned visit to the Jordanian capital today in hopes of recruiting King Abdullah and other major Arab and international figures to prevent a post-war severing of the Gaza Strip from the West Bank.
<big>Sisi’s original proposal did include</big>
[a] “Palestinian national talk” aimed at ending [intra-Palestinian factionalism, mainly between] the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority and Hamas [if also with Islamic Jihad and others, toward] formation of a technocratic government in the West Bank and Gaza that would oversee reconstruction of [Gaza] and pave the way for Palestinian parliamentary and presidential elections.
And on December 21, Al-Monitor reported in an article about Turkey’s Erdogan facilitating Hamas-PA reconciliations,
[...Last week in Doha, Qatar, in a first] senior Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk said Hamas seeks to join the Palestine Liberation Organization, the internationally recognized [secular, Fatah-dominated] representative of the Palestinian people. [Of major Palestinian factions, only Hamas and Islamic Jihad are not members].
...[Past similar talks] failed [on several issues including PLO agreements with Israel, notably Israel’s right to exist].
Erdogan ... is one of … few regional leaders [having] ties with both Hamas and Fatah leaders. In Ankara in July, [he] hosted a rare meeting [between] Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ political leader, and Mahmoud Abbas, Fatah chairman and Palestinian Authority president…
[The Gaza war motivates Palestinian reconciliation, Mehmet Rakipoglu, Istanbul-based Middle East expert at Dimensions for Strategic Studies, told Al-Monitor … A merger could give Hamas a certain legitimacy and] push back against those who ask, 'If Palestinians are defending their homeland, why are they divided among themselves?'”
...He added, however, that the involvement of Egypt, Qatar and Jordan — the former two with solid ties to Hamas, the latter influential with the PLO — would be essential…
All these weeks down the line, it appears that Hamas may have been dangling pretenses at cooperation as so repeatedly before, intending actually to assure salvaging some form of post-war primacy over Gaza as Hamas’ raison d’etre. This would mean the non-emergence of a Palestinian state, preventing Saudi Arabia, and others, from normalizing relations with Israel as Hamas prefers.
<big>On February 22, a Haaretz analysis article</big>
discussed the unexpected release by the Egyptian Defense Ministry of certain documents, including maps, concerning the Yom Kippur invasion of Israel 50 years ago. Reaction around the region interpreted this release and official statements about it to mean that Egypt was displaying military capacity in the face of
the growing threat that [Israel will expand the war into Rafah] and cause more than a million of residents to breach the separation fence and enter Sinai.
Suspending the talks about releasing the hostages, the appalling humanitarian situation in Gaza, the public political and military talk in Israel about preparations for an offensive in Rafah, the approaching Ramadan month [all fuel growing hazards]. Summoning Hamas' delegation, headed by Ismail Haniyeh and Khalil Al-Haya, Yahya Sinwar's deputy, to Cairo, is an important move in this direction. It is added to Qatar's message to Mossad head David Barnea that it was confirmed the medicines had been passed to the hostages.
That article referenced the complexity of a web of agreements among Egypt, Qatar and Hamas, among Yahya Sinwar and the rest of Hamas —“Haniyeh isn't exactly a bosom friend” of Sinwar — among Hamas and the other four terrorist organizations operating in Gaza, among Israel and US and the PA and Egypt, and all the other configurations of all the many involved nations and entities. Before the war, for example, Qatar had a clear role a financier and, together with Turkey and Lebanon, it served as a shelter state for Hamas' expat leadership; and Egypt was central to Gaza's “economic oxygen pipe.” Things are murkier now.
<big>The working assumption is that despite communication difficulties between the leadership[in-exile] of Hamas... and Sinwar,</big>
the latter is still [decision-maker] on the ground. There is no [point in considering popular television ideas such as] whether Sinwar would agree to exile or fall on his sword as a shahid rather than surrender. But at least statistics show that organizations' leaders, including Osama Bin Laden, ISIS Abu Bachar al-Baghdadi and senior commanders in their organizations preferred to send suicide combatants to battle rather than [themselves] volunteer to die….
[What’s clear is that] Sinwar's continued presence is vital to achieve practical results [for] the hostages. Haniyeh or Khalil al-Haya cannot enter Gaza and free hostages themselves if Sinwar is killed, and it is not known how the other senior leaders that remain, like Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa, or Nizar Awad Allah, who contended against Sinwar for Hamas leadership [in 2021], [might act, nor the extent, if any, to which Sinwar can be influenced by any individual or set of them, even the Shura Council, since it turns out] a large part of Hamas' leadership hadn't been aware of the intention to attack Israel.
[Nor what] pressure Qatar and Egypt can exert on Sinwar…. [Now whether Qatar] can guarantee or deny shelter to Hamas leadership out of Gaza, it is not clear to what extent [those men’s future interests] Sinwar… Egypt has [perhaps the more critical role regarding] managing Gaza and rehabilitating it, mainly because of its ability to control the movement of residents and merchandise to and from Gaza. But [to do that] it needs at least a cease fire and later an agreed local rule it can cooperate with.
Setting up such a rule doesn't depend only on Israel's or the United States' will. The agreement of Hamas' leadership out of Gaza, the PLO, and Sinwar's too must be achieved. The fate of the hostages therefore depends not only on agreeing on the number and identity of the Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange, or the extent of the humanitarian aid. It depends on a long cease-fire that will be used to build an outline and setting up an agreed Palestinian administration that will also ensure Hamas' future.
from al-Monitor email today:
Hamas, for its part, also appears to be loosening its terms, per the mediation of Qatar and Egypt. Yahya Sinwar, Hamas' chief in the Gaza Strip, may be rethinking his position. Rafah is probably his and Hamas’ last stand and he knows it. Sinwar may back off on his demand for an end to the war and take a pause, maybe even to keep alive the prospect of a possible deal for his and others’ departure from Gaza, like the PLO exodus from Beirut to Tunis in 1982. It’s hard to judge Sinwar’s commitment to martyrdom from the outside, but the walls are closing in.
Israel’s preferred money shot has until now been of the corpses of Sinwar and the other perpetrators of Oct. 7 amid the ruins of their headquarters and tunnels. Now it could be of their departure, with of course a perennial target on their backs.
Hamas, it seems, will also now take less than the release of "all" Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, as originally demanded, in return for Israelis and others, including Americans, held hostage in Gaza. There are an estimated 8,000 Palestinians in Israeli jails. Sinwar may go for hundreds instead. This figure may be closer to what Netanyahu is willing to accept. Negotiations are happening, and the discussions include an exchange of names of those to be released.
If there is a deal
With the latest US diplomatic surge, the take here is that Netanyahu might be able to groaningly accept a temporary cease-fire if it’s presented in weeks, not months, and not as an end to the war, and allows for an exchange of hostages in which Israel, in phases, gets its people back in return for hundreds, not thousands, of Palestinians in Israeli jails.
Netanyahu’s postwar plan and the Knesset resolution opposing a Palestinian state have given him the political cover to say he is not buying into the end game of the United States and its Arab partners calling for a two-state solution. If a Palestinian state is declared by international fiat or UN Security Council resolution, Netanyahu can claim that the fault is not his, and that only he is qualified to manage the fallout and pursue his goal of normalization with Saudi Arabia. But that’s a battle for another day.
All parties are locked in on March 10, the start of Ramadan, when religiosity often fuses with politics across the region. The United States and its partners are seized of the timing and urgency of the situation. Netanyahu has said all prisoners must be released by the same date, with the threat of a Rafah assault hanging over the talks.
“The controversy over Rafah is a microcosm of the larger controversy over the war, now in its fifth month,” writes Ben Caspit. “While Netanyahu clearly hopes to prolong the conflict to improve the chances of crushing Hamas and Sinwar, Gantz and his opposition National Unity party increasingly insist the military has accomplished most of the objectives it can achieve, without threatening the lives of over 1.5 million displaced Palestinians sheltering in Rafah.”
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Additional related info:
- Haaretz 2/25/2024 Palestinian Authority Conditions New Government Formation to Israeli Gaza Withdrawal The PLO has been recently discussing changing the Ramallah-based government's composition to include Hamas , Islamic Jihad and other organizations, which have not joined the PLO to date. A senior source says some conditions for such a change include 'national agreement by all the Palestinian factions' , a halt to the IDF raids in West Bank cities, international guarantees for an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, lifting the "economic embargo" on the Palestinian Authority, including the full transfer of tax revenues that Israel offsets from the Palestinians….
...It is believed that by making an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip a condition for the establishment of the new government, the Palestinian Authority seeks to show Hamas that it too is trying to apply pressure on Israel to withdraw and not be satisfied with empty words.
[And] hopes that this ... will cause the U.S., — which is demanding thorough reform of the Palestinian Authority, and Arab states such as Egypt and Jordan, which reportedly also want a change in the composition of the Palestinian government — to increase the pressure on Israel to end the war in the Gaza Strip.
... at a meeting between the Palestinian factions scheduled for Thursday in Moscow, the representatives will discuss the possibility of integrating Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the PLO. ... if ... agreement is reached [it will lead to institutional changes] starting with the Palestinian National Council and elections for a new PLO Executive Committee, which will naturally prepare the establishment of a new government.
On Sunday morning, [rumors said] the Palestinian government will [submit its resignation to President Mahmoud Abbas]<big>*</big> within a week, in preparation for the establishment of a technocratic government. Senior Palestinian Authority officials who spoke with Haaretz denied [this], but said [it] could not be ruled out later… depending on … developments … [and if it came into effect that Abbas would seek broad consensus for the establishment of a … technocratic government of officials and experts who will manage the Palestinian Authority's affairs in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip [especially] reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, lead civil reform and prepare the grounds for presidential and parliamentary elections (which have not been held since 2006)…
Hamas and other factions [reportedly want] the next prime minister [to] come from Gaza or be a scion of a well-known Gaza family... the [PA] fears that Hamas and former senior Fatah official Mohammad Dahlan are seeking to establish a separate technocratic government in the Gaza Strip [continuing the separation from the WB which the PA say will serve Israel, and that a provisional government might] become permanent.
[The PA require internal change to include a clearly stated path for serious diplomatic process] and confidence-building measures such as recognition of Palestine as a full member of the UN and a freeze on settlement construction. As of now, both the Biden administration and Netanyahu's government are far from implementing these measures.
<big>*</big>UPDATE: https:/Haaretz — Feb 26,2024 5:50pm IST by Jack Khoury <big><big>Palestinian Prime Minister Resigns; Will Head Transitional Government</big></big>
<big>President Mahmoud Abbas has accepted Mohammed Shtayyeh's resignation, automatically bringing about the resignation of his entire cabinet. Sources say Abbas will use the act to pressure the United States, Israel and Hamas</big>
...Shtayyeh's announcement comes as the United States is attempting to institute reforms in the Palestinian Authority, so that the PA can take over governing the Gaza Strip after the war. It also comes amid intensive efforts in the Palestine Liberation Organization to bring Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other organizations into its ranks…
...Palestinian Authority officials are concerned that Hamas and former senior Fatah figure Mohammed Dahlan are seeking to establish a separate government of experts in Gaza….
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Note: the promise of $35billion from the UAE appears to be alongside the $20billion for which a group of UAE investors bought the Egyptian Med town Ras el-Hikma, reported February 8. and “Hoping to ease currency crisis, Egypt signs $35 billion deal with UAE for Ras al-Hekma”. More recently, February 23, 2024 “DUBAI (Reuters) - Egypt signed on Friday an investment partnership agreement with the United Arab Emirates to develop the Ras al-Hikma peninsula west of Alexandria, in one of the biggest deals of its kind. The project will earn $150 billion, Egypt's Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said.”...