UPDATE: Wednesday, Feb 28, 2024 · 10:25:29 PM +00:00
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Dem
To be clear, I believe that President Biden has been an outstanding president! I/P/H has been an intractable problem for many decades. Regardless of one's view, it seems impossible to me to argue that Trump would not make the situation worse. Enabling Donald Trump to return to the White House would result in a loss of our democracy in all probability, would harm members of marginalized communities, and would hurt the Palestinian civilians. If anything, help President Biden defeat Donald Trump while communicating your views to your members of Congress and to President Biden. When you begin helping Donald Trump and declaring that you will not vote for President Biden in November, you are removing yourself from the table and President Biden and his team will seek to replace your progressive vote with a republican conservative anti-Trump vote.
I understand why many people here are upset and angry that tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians have died from IDF attacks and weapons. However, adding Donald Trump to that situation is almost certainly going to make it worse.
President Biden only got Oh noes !!! 80% of the vote and "Uncommitted" got fully 13% of the vote in Michigan. Therefore, we are going to lose Michigan in November of this year to Donald Trump. And we can't win the electoral college votes without Michigan. So, Prime Minister Biden will lose reelection and Donald Trump will win! Which will help marginalized communities here and the Palestinian civilians in Gaza.
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Except as Simon Rosenberg points out:
Michigan, Biden Keeps Cruising, Trump Continues To Struggle - In my post yesterday, I argued that the opposition to Biden’s foreign policy inside the Democratic Party was very limited, but intense. And that’s what we saw last night. Biden broke 80%, and for all the hype Uncommitted got to a very modest 13%, just 2 points higher than Uncommitted got against Obama in 2012. Biden is very popular in the Democratic Party, and the opposition he has is very narrow and limited. But it’s
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Pollsters are always reliving the previous election. Donald Trump has previously overperformed his polls in general elections. That is true. However, there are six reasons why I don't believe that will be the case this November. If pollsters are adjusting their likely voters screen because they anticipate sporadic voters for Trump will vote but don't give that same generosity to sporadic voters for Biden voters, then we cannot be surprised when Donald prevails in the poll.
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There are several other reasons why I believe that Donald Trump's current lead in the polls is unlikely to withstand the upcoming nine months (1) younger voters are outraged by what appears to be IDF indifference to Palestinian civilian casualties which has led them to attempt to drive President Biden off the ticket by bad polls (2) I suspect that in general most members of the media each individually believe that President Biden is too old to run for reelection. This led them to relentlessly and incessantly write stories about the age of President Biden. They dishonestly connected this with President Biden's well known proclivity for gaffes which he has had for gaffes. This greatly undermined confidence in President Biden. (3) It is undeniable that future events that will affect the polls and outcome. These future events include the non republican voters recognizing that this is a very good economy.
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In addition, voters who have been imagining anything but a matchup between President Biden and Donald Trump eventually will join the real world and acknowledge that there are only two possibilities, either President Biden will win reelection or Donald Trump will return to office. Republican voters jump in line more quickly and in greater numbers than the numerically far superior anti Trump forces. However, when those among the anti Trump forces understand the reality that they can either have Donald Trump back in power or reelect Joe Biden and that there are zero other possibilities, then these stragglers will choose to reelect Joe Biden.
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Six reasons why Donald Trump is unlikely to over perform his polled percentage of the vote:
1. Dobbs
2. Insurrection itself
3. Prosecutions
4. Underperforming in primary
5. Haley voters who have said that they will not vote for him if he is the nominee
6. Percent of the vote going to Haley, especially in South Carolina
Note: never earned 47% of the popular vote in either general election, lost popular vote twice
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1. This is the first time that Donald Trump himself will face the voters since Dobbs. No matter what he says elsewhere, women voters know that he by his own admission got Roe overturned, saying, 'I was able to kill Roe v Wade' . In July of 2022, the rate of inflation was 9.1% and President Biden's approval rating was around 39%. Historically, in the last century, there have been only three exceptions to the trend that the New president's political party loses a significant number of seats in Congress in the midterms. In the only modern occurrence, when George W Bush was president in November of 2002, the approval rating of the new president, President George W Bush, was 71% and it was shortly after September 11, 2001. Yet, the Democratic Party only lost a modest number of seats in the House of Representatives and actually gained a seat in the Senate and advanced in state legislatures and in governors. That's the power of the movement against Dobbs. And Donald Trump caused Dobbs by his own admission. Since Dobbs, we, the Democratic Party, have been crushing the republicans in election after election, overperforming polls consistently . Now, the movement against Dobbs gets to target the metaphysical author of Dobbs.
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2. The insurrection. The Venn Diagramm of those who understand that Trump was morally and ethically wrong to incite an insurrection in his attempt at a coup and those who understand that his attempt at a coup was a serious crime is not one circle even though there is, to put it mildly, considerable overlap between the two circles. A solid majority assign a great deal or at least some responsibility for the insurrection . Even a third of republicans still disapprove of the insurrection . This will be the first time that Donald Trump will be on the ballot since the insurrection. It is hard to imagine, among non MAGA voters, that this will not hurt Donald Trump in the general election among almost all democrats, most independents, and even a non trivial number of republicans.
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3. While most voters are able to apprehend the fact that Donald Trump holds a significant amount of responsibility for the insurrection and oppose it, some of these people don't understand that it is a crime and then there are others who need a court to tell them that Trump committed a felony when he obstructed the official proceedings to collect, count, and have the US Congress certify the electoral college votes of states who had already certified their election results on January sixth as mandated by the US Constitution. Of course, Donald Trump has been indicted for numerous criminal acts, not just his attempt at a coup via various methods including inciting a mob to assault the Capitol in order to prevent Congress from collecting, counting, and certifying the electoral college votes from states that had, again, already certified their election results.
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Even prior to conviction, 35% of New Hampshire voters said that they would not vote for Donald Trump if he becomes the nominee.
If Donald Trump is convicted of a felony, his prospects in the general election against President Biden drop precipitously. Those conservatives who would not vote for Donald Trump if he is convicted of a felony, if they voted in one of the Republican contests this far, almost certainly voted for Nikki Haley.
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Fully fifty three percent of voters in swing states would not vote for Donald Trump if he is convicted of a felony .
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The poll, released Wednesday from Bloomberg and Morning Consult, found that 53 percent of voters in key swing states would refuse to vote for Trump if he were convicted of a criminal offense. A slightly higher share, 55 percent, say they would reach that conclusion if he were sentenced to prison.
If those figures are accurate, they could easily decide the election, given how close Trump’s two elections so far, in 2016 and 2020, have been.
A conviction “is absolutely a potential dealbreaker in an election that either [Trump or President Biden] could win or lose for a whole variety of reasons,” said GOP strategist Doug Heye, a former communications director for the Republican National Committee.
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Again, Donald Trump is in dire straits if he is convicted of a felony
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A Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 55 percent of potential voters would not support the anticipated Republican nominee at the general election if he were convicted of any of the 91 felony charges he has pleaded not guilty to across four criminal trials. Fifty-eight percent said they would not vote for Trump if he were serving time in prison in November.
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Nikki Haley's cognitive function seems diminished when she says while most voters won't vote for Donald Trump if he is convicted of a felony, she would and she would also pardon him
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Haley says 'no way' voters would back Trump if he is convicted, though she's said she would
She called the former president "unhinged" and "diminished."
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4. Nate Cohn admitted the fact that Donald Trump has underperformed his polls in the early contests thus far
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In an outstanding article, Kerry points out how Donald Trump has underperformed his polls in the early contests so far
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The article noted the averages of Trump's leads in the polls for each state and how much he actually won by. The average margin that he has been underperformed his polls is six points. Kerry also wrote:
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Some election analysts wondered if pollsters have now overcorrected for their previous sins of underestimating the so-called "shy Trump voters" (i.e., Trump voters who refused to tell pollsters about their support for him) of 2016 and 2020.
The other side of that coin is a theory Cohn and others have entertained: Pollsters are underestimating the anti-Trump vote. As Cohn explained of these early 2024 polls, "[A]nti-Trump voters simply weren’t as likely to take surveys as pro-Trump voters."
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5.Trump is in very poor shape with South Carolina Nikki Haley voters
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The Haley campaign called the situation the "GOP Titanic."
A Fox News Voter Analysis survey of more than 2,400 South Carolina Republican primary voters also found that 6-in-10 Haley voters (59%) would not support Trump in the general election if he were the GOP nominee.
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6. The fact that in a republican primary, Donald Trump who has to be considered an incumbent, is giving up forty percent of the vote to Nikki Haley has to be a huge warning sign for Donald Trump. Donald Trump has not lost his hold on the Republican Party since he overcame the Hollywood Access recording. He retained it despite Trump Russia despite (1) losing his choice to be NSA, Michael Flynn, because he lied to the FBI (2) the Senate Republican report revealed that the Russians had interfered with our election, trying to help Donald Trump win (3) Robert Mueller documenting ten instances in which Donald Trump obstructed Justice. He retained it despite the revelation of Don Trump jr meeting with Natalia Veselnitskaya, a Russian attorney connected to Vladimir Putin, in May of 2016 on the third floor of Trump Tower, in order to exchange removing the sanctions on Russian oligarchs for interfering with our election for opposition research on former Secretary Hillary Clinton, a violation of campaign Finance law as opposition research is a thing of value, an in kind contribution, according to the FEC, the Federal Election Commission, on their own website.
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He retained it despite violating campaign Finance law by paying Stormy Clifford $130,000 to not reveal her sexual affairs with Donald Trump three weeks before the presidential election which made it a campaign contribution as it was intended to interfere with the election. We know this was a violation of Campaign Finance Law, in excess of the limit, as Michael Cohen admitted, as Cohen's defense attorney acknowledged, the SDNY prosecutors asserted, and the judge agreed, and the general counsel of the FEC said the same. Michael Cohen went to prison for several crimes, but this violation of the allowed campaign limit was one of them. Now, Michael Cohen wasn't the principal, the candidate, didn't give the order, and didn't benefit from it. Donald Trump was the principal, he was the candidate, he gave the order, and it benefited him. Therefore, if Michael Cohen could be sent to prison for this, so should Donald Trump.
The republicans stayed with him through the 'good people on both sides ' lie.
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The Republican Party stayed with him despite the fact that he attempted to extort the president of Ukraine. The US Constitution gives the power of the purse to Congress. Congress has passed foreign aid to Ukraine It goes through the Department of Treasury, but Donald Trump did NOT have any right to withhold it from Ukraine and add a new condition for receiving the first payment. When he attached a condition for lb it, he committed abuse of power since he did not have the authority to alter the foreign aid and put a new condition on receiving it, namely to announce an investigation into President Biden and Hunter Biden.
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The Republican Party voters didn't stop supporting Donald Trump when he lied about the pandemic and said that it was a Democratic Party hoax.
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The Republican Party voters did not stop supporting Donald Trump when he attempted a coup and incited the insurrection.
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The Republican Party voters did not stop supporting Donald Trump when he was found liable for sexual assault of E. Jean Carroll.
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The Republican Party voters did not stop supporting Donald Trump when he was indicted four times by four different grand juries and charged with 91 felonies.
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Therefore Donald Trump should be viewed as an incumbent. However, for an incumbent, he is performing very poor in the Republican Party contents.
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Thus, it seems that he should not over perform normal polls. It seems likely that they loosened the filter or screen for republican Trump voters whereas they pollsters either left alone for potential Biden voters. This would be enough to give Donald a lead in some polls. Even if not, there are so many events that will take plaçe over the next eight plus months that taking current current general election polls as the set in stone election outcome is nonsensical.
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