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This is the letter for week 205 of a weekly climate strike that went on for 4 years in front of San Francisco City Hall, beginning early March 2019. For more context, see this story. For an annotated table of contents of the topics for all the strike letters, see this story. Meanwhile…
STRIKE FOR THE PLANET
Waist deep in the Big Muddy and the big fool says to push on1
This week: ELEVATION
What are SF’s elevations?
Every line represents 6.1 m (20’) of elevation. All of the drab green is under 30.5 m (100’), much of it under 6 m. Treasure Island, for instance, is almost entirely under 3 m (10’).
BOTTOM LINE:
One-third of the city is on low-lying land.
How much sea level rise is likely?
Here’s some of where water is stored in ice that is melting, and melting at accelerating rates:
Thwaites glacier — holds 65 cm of sea level rise
West Antarctic Ice Sheet — holds 3.3 meters of sea level rise
Greenland — holds 23 cm of sea level rise
for a total of 4.13 meters of sea level rise
There’s even more water stored in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, which we thought was stable but now also looks to be endangered. The Totten Glacier, for example, is a cork for the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is now being attacked by hot water from below.
Totten Glacier — holds 3.5 meters of sea level rise, at least
East Antarctic Ice Sheet — holds 53.3 meters of sea level rise
BOTTOM LINE:
Short term, there is enough currently melting ice to raise global sea levels by 4.13 to 7.63 meters. Longer term, there is enough ice to raise global sea levels by 60 meters.
Connecting SF’s elevations to sea level rise
Climate Central did some work visualizing for us how some of this will look. The following images show downtown with sea level rise from a 1.5°C global average temperature increase.
It’s worth noting that we’re due to hit 1.5°C global average temperature increase this year or early next year, and that the flooding pictured above is already locked in: the ice for this increase is already melted, and the water is already rising. Given that we’re careening toward 3°C average global temperature rise, this level of flooding is the minimum SF will see.
BOTTOM LINE:
Sea levels are rising enough to endanger all of SF’s coasts. Initially. More melting will endanger more of SF, up to the first light green ring (60 m elevation).
Why is flooding a problem for SF?
- SEWAGE: Much of the Oceanside Treatment Plant is at sea level, on sand, or in the coastal berm. The Southeast Treatment Plant is at sea level. The North Point Wet Weather Facility is at sea level and on the water. These areas will flood.
- INDUSTRY: What’s left of SF’s industrial base is on the east side of the city, at low elevations. These areas will flood
- TOXINS: The vast majority of our land-based toxic pollution is on the east and south, in areas at low elevations. These areas will flood and the toxins will be spread.
- STORM SURGES: Climate change is causing increased storm size and is pushing storm surges farther and farther inland, causing damage to areas not flooded by sea level rise.
- WATER TABLE: Salt water intrusion is already a problem in SF. Sea level rise is making it much worse.
- TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE: CalTrain tracks will flood. The subways and BART will flood. Much of the N, the T, the F, and some of the L line will flood. Numerous bus lines will be flooded in part or whole. Areas in many neighborhoods will become inaccessible except by watercraft.
- HOUSING: Not only will a chunk of the existing housing stock become unusable, but you are actively building on areas that will flood. Putting 8000 units on Treasure Island is political malfeasance and yet another example of environmental racism in action.
- ELECTRICITY: The grid will short in flooded areas. We have no work-arounds, and no plans in place to make the grid less susceptible to flooding. In some areas that will be underwater, such as downtown, the electrical infrastructure is underground.
- INEQUITY AND RACISM: Yet again, it’s the poor, the systemically impoverished, and the already at risk who will bear the brunt of SF’s bad decisions and inaction.
BOTTOM LINE:
Sea level rise flooding will irrevocably change how SF looks, how polluted it is, how healthy it is, how people and goods move around SF, SF’s energy reliability, housing, industry, and fresh water availability.
What can SF do about this?
- Build densely, uphill, with the people in areas that will be underwater, and their infrastructure, getting first priority for space.
- Zone for and build/buy sacrifice zones on all of SF’s coastline. Then plant these areas with green spongy ecosystems, on land and in the water, to reduce the impacts of sea level rise and storm surges.
- Transition the city to carbon neutral, or carbon negative, immediately.
- Increase SF’s albedo.
- Move transit to above ground or on the water.
- Reduce and eliminate individual car traffic on SF’s roads. Make the roads permeable to help absorb water. Plant rain gardens and bioswales, and greatly increase the urban forest.
- Build canals.
BOTTOM LINE:
We’re going to flood. Our options now are how badly, how much, who is most hurt by it, and how much the damage does to SF’s ability to survive.
Do you want SF to survive?
A now 4-year old report by the USGS2 found that damage from sea level rise triples for CA when you add in tides, storms, and erosion. That was before we realized how fast glaciers are melting and how quickly the weather is changing. The longer you delay, the worse it will get. ACT NOW!
FOOTNOTES
1. Pete Seeger. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXnJVkEX8O4.
2. Patrick Barnard, Li Erikson, Amy Foxgrover, Juliette Finzi Hart, Patrick Limber, Andrea O’Neill, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Nathan Wood, Maya Hayden, and Jeanne Jones. “Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change”. Nature. 13 March 2019. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-40742-z.