The chances of Donald Trump returning as president are so close to zero it doesn’t matter. Yes, his base is rock solid behind him, and won’t shift their allegiance. But it is not growing at the rate required for him to win in November.
Several harsh realities confirm he will lose against whoever the Democrats nominate, and should be replaced as Republican candidate by, say, Nikki Haley.
Supreme Court decision
If the Supreme Court does its job properly, it will render Trump ineligible to serve again. Section 3 of the constitution is crystal clear. Trump took an oath to uphold the constitution – whatever the actual words were at the time – and he later engaged in an insurrection. So he cannot run. That is the clear conclusion reached by retired conservative judge Michael Luttig and several other scholars in the USA and abroad.
Of course, there is a high probability the SCOTUS will not do its job properly. Several members have shown they do not serve the constitution, but serve Donald Trump. So we cannot rely on that outcome.
The Iowa results do not show what some pundits claim
Yes, Trump won the Iowa caucus. But with only 56,260 votes. That’s out of a state population of 3.2 million.
Edison Research estimated the Iowa turnout at 115,000, a miserable attendance compared with 186,657 in 2016. This signals low enthusiasm for Trump’s candidacy.
Of the hard-core Republicans who backed Trump in Iowa, 31% said in published entrance polls he would be unfit for office if convicted of crimes. One week later, in the New Hampshire primary, 42% said the same.
Impact of the criminal charges
Trump is pursuing a comeback while defending 91 criminal charges in four jurisdictions, and multiple civil lawsuits. They pose two enormous obstacles.
The first is the erosion of support as the adverse judgments start to pile up. The latest Quinnipiac poll found Biden leads Trump 50% to 44%. That’s after several grand jury decisions, but before any criminal case has run its course.
Since a civil court ordered Trump to pay US$83.3 million to his rape victim, E. Jean Carroll, support among women has slumped to 58% to 36% in Biden’s favour.
Election funding
The second adverse impact of the forthcoming trials is the drain of MAGA resources.
The New York Times reported last week that Trump spent more than US$50 million on legal fees last year. AP News puts this at $76 million over last two years
He is just starting. Total fees and penalties this year could be as high as $900 million – which are dollars not available for campaigning.
Reuters reports that many big Republican donors who would normally back such a clear frontrunner are diverting their money to Nikki Haley in order stop the GOP endorsing a criminal grifter.
This is likely to accelerate as more and more respected Republicans are excoriating Trump publicly as evidence of his criminality strengthens, and as his mental decline and descent into violent rhetoric become more obvious.
Biden’s economy
Virtually all the indicators now show the US economy is mounting one of the world’s strongest recoveries from the Covid downturn.
The more focus on this, the less traction Trump will get with his incessant false mantra over the last six years that “we built the best economy in the history of the world.”
Since our two diary entries which directly challenged Trump’s mendacity in this area last year, he has been far less cocky. This is a relief.
See here: “Greatest economy in the history of the world” – the lie that could end the American experiment
And here: Part 2: No, Donald, you didn’t build “the world's greatest economy ever”. Biden’s is vastly better.
Watch Governor Newsom
This diary notes the articulate and photogenic Governor of California Gavin Newsom is appearing increasingly frequently on the national stage. His appearance with Bill Maher was masterful.
We do not make predictions, but won’t be surprised if Biden announces at the Democratic Convention in July that he has fulfilled all his ambitions, wishes to spend his eighties with his grandkids, and anoints Newsom, 56, as his successor. Another possibility is Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, 50, less experienced but more articulate.
Yes, it will be an enthralling year. There’s no need for despair.
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This is an expanded version of a portion of an article published yesterday in Independent Australia, available in full for free here:
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/2024-a-year-when-trump-and-others-will-test-the-resilience-of-global-democracy,18299