People are freaking out about the polls. I get it. It is because people here understand what is at stake. Nothing less than our democracy is at stake. Democracy is on the ballot. We are still in the beginning of the primary season. General election polls when we are this early in the primaries should not be taken as gospel, certainly not in this election. This is a unique presidential election. We have never had a presidential election following an insurrection and a likely nominee who has been indicted four times and charged with 91 felonies.
Furthermore, we just survived a once in a century pandemic. We faced tremendous economic stress with very high inflation. The voters and the country as a whole has been through a tremendous amount of stressful events. The country is incredibly divided on partisan lines. The candidate for the good guys is in his 80s and has a stutter problem. The voters are not particularly sophisticated or educated, especially in this matter. This has led to a lack of confidence in him no matter how unfair and no matter how ill-founded the lack of confidence is.
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Therefore, the voters really did not want this matchup. Then, we had a new issue come up on us which divided the pro democracy political party. Already, in such a situation, the Republican Party has a fundamental and structural advantage. That's because the republican voters tend to be loyal to their likely nominee and they naturally tend to favor an authoritarian as their extremist religious people demonstrate while the opposite is true of the diverse pro democracy political party that is made up of disparate factions.
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We are going to learn how mature and sophisticated and far-sighted our coalition as a whole is. Do enough members of the anti Trump coalition understand that no matter how passionate they may feel about the one divisive issue, retaining our democracy is far, far more important? Do enough of us understand that we all must be more than anti Trump, that we must be committed members of the pro democracy political party and must come Hell or come high water support the only presidential candidate in this upcoming 2024 presidential election who can win and defeat Donald Trump and who believes in our democracy and whose commitment to democracy is seen now and in his tenure in government?
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It, therefore, cannot be a surprise that early on, the anti-democracy candidate is ahead in the polls. This should not be a surprise to anybody paying attention to this presidential election who understands our times and the nature of the two opposing coalitions. That does not mean that when the votes are cast, the only pro democracy presidential candidate who can win can't or won't win. Their coalition is better positioned to be ahead now when it is extremely early, but it is likely, based upon the fundamentals of this election, including the commitment of a majority of voters to democracy and based upon an improving economy and all the evidence that voters will eventually confront which shows the other coalition's candidate is opposed to the rule of law and democracy that our coalition's candidate will win. Our coalition has, in theory, a much larger universe of voters. The fundamentals of this 2024 presidential election favor US and our pro democracy likely nominee.
Because of this divisive issue many of the members of the anti Trump coalition are and have been hoping for some other candidate to be the opponent to Trump. Such people must and will be confronted with the reality that President Biden is the only top tier, top five tier, candidate who can and will lead the pro democracy coalition and will be our standard bearer. No other serious candidate who has any chance at all of defeating their anti democracy and anti rule of law likely nominee will appear in this election. Therefore, the only alternative to Donald Trump is re-electing our incumbent president, President Joe Biden.
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The question will become will the members of the anti Trump coalition, those most reluctant to commit to our pro democracy coalition because in an ideal world they would get some other candidate whom they like better be mature and sophisticated enough and wise enough to understand that our democracy depends upon fully supporting our incumbent president despite how strongly they disagree with him and me on the one issue. There will not be some other savior. We will have to do the work ourselves with what we have to work with.
In an ideal world, do not each of us have some other younger candidate, perhaps very different on the one divisive issue, we would prefer be the nominee or perhaps a younger edition of this one? Of course. But with this age comes wisdom based upon political experience. He has served in government 47 years now, nearly half a century. And, overall, as a whole, it is fair to say that he has done an excellent job and has earned reelection. And we are not doing this for him. We are doing it for ourselves because we deserve democracy and all other issues rely upon us having a democracy. We are doing this for all the marginalized communities and their members. It is important that we keep that in mind.
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President Biden's approval rating as calculated by 538 is 15.5 points underwater and Donald Trump's approval rating is only 10 points underwater . They changed the way that they calculate the average of the polls.
For Donald Trump, here are the polls
+42 -56 +40 -57 +38 -52 +38 -57
For President Biden
+42 -55 +45 -54 +42 -54 +36 -54
Michigan 538
Morning Consult Biden 42 Trump 47
Target Insyght Biden 45 Trump 41
Everything else is more than a month old
Wisconsin 538
Beacon Research Biden 47 Trump 47
Morning Consult Biden 44 Trump 49
Pennsylvania 538
Franklin Marshall Biden 43 Trump 42
Morning Consult Biden 45 Trump 48
Susquehanna Biden 47 Trump 39
Quinnipiac Biden 49 Trump 46
Trump's electoral record when on the ballot
|
Trump
2016
|
Clinton
2016
|
margin
2016
|
trump
2020
|
biden
2020
|
margin
2020
|
Michigan |
47.5% |
47.27% |
11K
.23%
|
47.84% |
50.62% |
155K
2.78%
|
Wisconsin |
47.22% |
46.45% |
23K
.77%
|
48.82% |
49.45% |
20.7K
.63%
|
pennsylvania |
48.18% |
47.46% |
44K
.72%
|
48.84% |
50.01% |
81K
1.17%
|
2016 |
46.1% |
48.2% |
2.9M
2.1%
|
|
|
|
2020 |
|
|
|
46.8% |
51.3% |
7M
4.5%
|
Gallup
Last Trump Job Approval 34%; Average Is Record-Low 41%
- Approval ratings of Trump most politically polarized by wide margin
Trump is the only president not to register a 50% job approval rating at any point in his presidency since Gallup began measuring presidential job approval in 1938. Likewise, he is the only president who did not have a honeymoon period of above-average ratings upon taking office. His initial 45% job approval rating proved to be his high point for his first year as president.
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Gallup
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is 39%, marking a slight improvement from the 37% low points in October and November but the fifth time his rating is below 40% in 2023.
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University of Michigan survey
For the second consecutive month, there has been a sharp rise in consumer sentiment in the U.S., a rate not seen in more than 30 years.
According to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers released on Friday, consumer sentiment saw a 13% jump in January, reaching its highest level since July 2021. Combined with a 14% hike in December, it’s the largest two-month increase since 1991 when the Gulf War ended and the U.S. came out of a recession.
An improving outlook over inflation and personal incomes were credited with the increase in consumer confidence, which has seen a nearly 60% rise above the all-time low measured in June 2022 and is now 7% shy of the historical average reading since 1978.
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NPR
Many experts feared a recession. Instead, the economy has continued to soar
JANUARY 25, 20241:50 PM ET
The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations.
The nation's gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic activity — grew at an annual pace of 3.3% in October, November, and December, according to a report Thursday from the Commerce Department.
Instead, the economy ended last year 3.1% larger than it was 12 months earlier, raising hopes for a "soft landing," in which inflation is tamed without a sharp jump in unemployment.
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US compared to other G7 nations
- US GDP grew at a surprise 3.3% rate in the fourth quarter, beating estimates for 2.0%.
- Outlooks for G7 nations show slower growth and higher inflation compared to the US.
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Fortune says
Surprise: Wage growth has actually outpaced the crushing inflation over the past 2.5 years. ‘The economy appears to be doing better than a lot of people might realize’
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The White House points out
America’s economy is the strongest in the world. Today, we saw more proof, with another month of strong wage gains and employment gains of over 350,000 in January, continuing the strong growth from last year. Our economy has created 14.8 million jobs since I took office, unemployment has been under 4% for two full years now, and inflation has been at the pre-pandemic level of 2% over the last half year. It’s great news for working families that wages, wealth, and jobs are higher now than before the pandemic, and I won’t stop fighting to lower costs and build an economy from the middle out and bottom up.
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Inflation has greatly improved
In fact, core inflation plummeted to 2.9% by the end of 2023 and just 1.9% in the last six months, annualized. This was because of improving supply, not falling demand, and thus growth and labor markets remained solid.6 days ago
https://www.wsj.com › economy › f...
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Politifact admits that it is mostly true that this is the longest continuous period that the US has kept the unemployment rate below four percent in fifty years
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Fact Check fails to give proper credit because they don't give proper weight to the fact that Donald Trump took office with a good economy in that President Obama rescued the American economy and the American people from Bush's terrible economic policies which led to 10% unemployment as under the leadership of President Obama the economy grew for 83 straight consecutive months, the longest continuous period of peacetime private sector job growth that this nation has ever known. They fail to understand that President Biden took over a country after Donald Trump had left this country, sicker and poorer than it has been in a very long time.
.Boston Globe
But here is the reality: Trump has effectively lost three elections in a row, in 2018, 2020, and 2022. No, his name wasn't on the ballot in 2018. But the midterm elections that year became a referendum on his presidency. The result: Democrats took back the House and picked up seats in the Senate.Nov 10, 2022
https://www.bostonglobe.com › tru...
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The Washington Post points out
Democrat Andy Beshear’s apparent win in the Kentucky governor’s race was the headline Tuesday. But perhaps the more ominous sign for the GOP was the blue team’s takeover of both chambers of Virginia’s state legislature, along with their strong performances in local races in crucial Pennsylvania. And it cements three years of undeniable backward electoral momentum for the party under Trump. In 2017, Democrat Doug Jones pulled a shocking upset in a special Senate election in ruby-red Alabama, thanks to Republican Roy Moore’s problems. Democrats also took over the governorship in New Jersey, over-performed expectations
- The House was 241-194 Republican after the 2016 election. Today, it’s effectively 235-199 Democratic.
- Republicans held a historic 33-16 advantage in governor’s seats after the 2016 election. Today, it’s 26-24.
- Republicans had a 32-14 advantage in state legislatures controlled after 2016. Today, it’s 30-19.
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ABC and 538 tell us that the Democratic Party has been over performing in special elections in 2023
Democrats have been winning big in special elections
That could bode well for them in the 2024 election. ” On its own, no — any single special election can be influenced by any number of factors, including candidate quality or parochial issues. But Democrats have been posting special-election overperformances of that magnitude all year long, in all kinds of districts. And on average, they have won by margins 11 points higher than the weighted relative partisanship of their districts.
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.This is the first time that Donald Trump himself will have to face the voters since
his 3 Supreme Court Justice nominees after lying in their hearings voted to overturn Roe vs Wade
he was found liable for sexual assault
he incited the insurrection
he attempted a coup
he has been indicted four times and charged with 91 felonies
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What happens if Trump is convicted? The Hill says
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The Memo: Poll points to deep trouble for Trump if he gets convicted
The poll, released Wednesday from Bloomberg and Morning Consult, found that 53 percent of voters in key swing states would refuse to vote for Trump if he were convicted of a criminal offense. A slightly higher share, 55 percent, say they would reach that conclusion if he were sentenced to prison.
If those figures are accurate, they could easily decide the election, given how close Trump’s two elections so far, in 2016 and 2020, have been.
A conviction “is absolutely a potential dealbreaker "
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CNN notes that
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CNN Poll: Most Americans want verdict on Trump election subversion charges before 2024 vote them. A 72% majority of Democrats and 52% of independents say it’s essential that a verdict is reached pre-election. Republicans are more split.
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The New York Times finds
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Nearly a Quarter of Trump Voters Say He Shouldn’t Be Nominated if Convicted
Nearly a quarter of former President Donald J. Trump’s own supporters believe that he should not be the Republican Party’s nominee for president next year if he is found guilty of a crime, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.
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MSNBC points out
Most Americans wouldn't vote for Trump if he's convicted of a felony: Poll
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It is, in my view, highly likely that we will get a verdict back from at least one and probably two of Trump's prosecutions. There is no doubt, in my mind, that if we get to verdict, he will be convicted in any of the prosecutions that get to verdict. Consider how poorly he has fared in court. He lost the sexual assault civil suit, he lost the defamation, he lost the second defamation, he lost immunity, he lost in the appeals court about appearing on the ballot, he has lost in the Trump organization suit we are simply awaiting the penalty, he lost the lawsuit about his charity, he lost the lawsuit about Trump University, he consistently attempts to use lawsuits as a weapon, frivolous or not, and then drops them like a bully would when the person or company stands their ground, he and his allies lost 61 of 62 election lawsuits, and he has other lawsuits as well. The two prosecutions that are likely to get to verdict are the District Attorney Alvin Bragg Campaign Finance Law Violation and the Special Prosecutor Jack Smith January sixth Indictment.
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The Republicans could not even manage to get Secretary Mayorkas impeached. They would, therefore, be unlikely to get President Biden impeached. Furthermore, the voters understand the difference between being prosecuted for an insurrection that they saw along with the evidence from the hearings from the committee and being targeted by a hyperpartisan grouo of Republicans in Congress.
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Losing a quarter of his own supporters is untenable for Donald Trump.
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Axios reminds us
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- 83% of Haley voters — and 42% of voters overall — said they would not consider Trump to be fit for office if he were convicted of a crime.
- Most importantly, Fox News' voter analysis found that 35% of New Hampshire's voters would be so dissatisfied with a Trump nomination that they would not vote for him in November.
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CNN describes the danger Trump faces thusly
But surveys of voters participating in the Iowa and New Hampshire nominating contests show that most Haley supporters express deeply negative views about Trump.
In New Hampshire, more than 4-in-5 Haley voters said Trump would not be fit to serve again if convicted and that Biden had legitimately won. Fully 85% of Haley supporters said they would be dissatisfied if Trump were the nominee.
The AP/NORC VoteCast poll offered similar warning signs for Trump. In that poll, two-thirds of Haley voters in Iowa said they would not vote for Trump in a general election; that number soared past three-fourths of her voters in New Hampshire.
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This is not something that Donald Trump can sustain. He did not win a majority of the vote in either general election. He did not even won a plurality in either general election. He has not won 49% in any of the three states that will decide the 2024 presidential election in either general election. Rather, he stayed around 47 and 48 percent. He lost the popular vote by nearly three million votes in 2016 and by nearly 7 million votes in 2020. He has led his team down a string of electoral defeats since he barely sneaked into the White House via the electoral college in 2016. The economy is very good and people are feeling better about it. He is in electoral peril because of his legal jeopardy. The voters have not forgotten that he dismantled Roe which has led to democrats over performing in election after election all over the country. The anti democracy side does have an edge now in polling and politically structurally, but that is illusory and temporary. The fundamentals of this election favor President Biden and I fully expect to see a modest but decisive lead for President Biden in September and October. And I expect him to narrowly win the 2024 presidential election.
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