I couldn’t sleep last night. I guess i got a few hours in, but really i just woke up and went back to work. There’s an election on Tuesday and i figure i can sleep on Wednesday.
Now it could just have been the debate. I mean, that thing got us all wound up. I watched it with a couple of other Hope Springs from Field PAC organizers and it was like a boxing match. A really, really bloody boxing match. More punches thrown last night than one of Donald Trump’s frequent boxing matches with the Truth. One paper even called it a “joust.”
Here’s the thing, though. Both sides got what it wanted last night. Pilip remained glued to her talking points (as she has been all campaign) and Souzzi nailed her repeatedly with her inability to say anything else. Like one voter told me a week or so ago, she’s a One Trick Pony, easily led by the harness.
Which is a terrible thing to say about the young woman. You want to say, she didn’t ask for this, but it seemed clear last night she had no idea what she was getting into. No one can fault her her ambition. And there are lots of MAGA Members of Congress who are basically delusional right now. Pilip just wants to join that club.
But if you wanted to see what a “Fightin’ Dem” looks like, Tom Suozzi gave an outstanding performance. Solid. Well-informed. On top of the subject matter.
Immigration, Reproductive Freedom and George Santos were my key takeaways from the debate. It will be really interesting to see how voters react today and this weekend. Because this is the whole ball of wax.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has organizers and volunteers out every day now as we approach Election Day (Tuesday). We had our largest weekday turnout yesterday, and most of those who canvassed yesterday stayed out longer (funny how warmer weather will do that) than usual. And if the discussion with voters yesterday wasn’t about the upcoming debate, it certainly was the topic among volunteers.
To us, Suozzi delivered the hard, expected punches. “George Santos got elected by lying about his record,” Suozzi said. “Ms. Pilip wants to get elected by lying about me.”
The fact that Reproductive Freedom got any air time has to be considered a major victory for the Democrat.
The confrontational face-off, hosted by local TV station News 12, also served as a study of contrasts. Suozzi, who had spent 30 years in elected office, was steady and his answers specific while Pilip, a political novice, retreated to familiar lines. But Pilip made an impassioned case against Democrats, her tone turning angry and accusatory at several points.
Emotions ran highest on questions about border security, the prevailing issue in the district that straddles the border of Long Island and New York City, which is confronting an influx of migrants.
It was the only debate between the two candidates (even though Suozzi had demanded more). Pilip has stayed largely in her neck of the woods, appearing at partisan functions, safely ensconced among protective Nassau County Republican activists.
It was also incredibly personal. Pilip, among the most Jewish electorate in the county, raised her decision to give her son a Jewish star necklace as a difficult one after October 7th. Suozzi was just a little peeved at being called a liar. “To suggest that I’m a member of the squad is about as believable as [Pilip] being a member of George Santos’ volleyball team,” which drew a hearty laugh from us. “So, it’s just not credible.”
The race for New York’s 3rd Congressional District — which includes a sliver of eastern Queens and swaths of Long Island’s tony North Shore — carries significant symbolic and practical weight. In the short term, a win by Suozzi would limit Republicans’ paper-thin majority in the House to a two-vote margin.
And it would offer Democrats a much-craved moral victory in New York after the GOP flipped four seats in the state in the midterm elections, a disaster for the New York Democratic Party that has often been blamed on Hochul’s relatively narrow victory atop the ticket.
Gov. Hochul has been more of a drag on Tom Suozzi than either President Biden or members of the squad have been (from what we hear from voters). It is interesting (to me, at least) that none of the recent polls in this race ask about voter attitudes towards the governor, especially since some observers credit her leadership as the reason Democrats lost Congressional seats in New York two years ago.
But voters are also taking their national responsibility seriously. Not just as it reflects on Trump and the whole insurrection thing, but also the Biden Administration as well. In recent days, several voters have brought up the Republican debacles in the House and taken note how this election will effect that.
The deadlocked vote to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, which amounted to a major blow for House Republicans, only intensified the spotlight on the special election in Queens and Nassau counties.
If the Republican nominee Mazi Pilip wins, the House GOP likely would be able to impeach Mayorkas.
If Democrat Tom Suozzi is victorious, impeachment would become harder - at least for the time being.
And Suozzi reminded voters of the influence of one single representative for Long Island: “The reality is, I know how government works. I know how to get things done. I know who to talk to, how to stop things and how to make things happen,” Suozzi said, adding that Pilip is good at “pointing out the problems” but has offered “no solutions whatsoever.”
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since January 13th for the special election in the New York CD-03. We are canvassing Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up), GOTV and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopespecial
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
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The latest polling memo, released yesterday, declares, “Voter Turnout Could be Deciding Factor in Tight Race.” Whodda thunk it?
Suozzi outperforms Pilip among younger voters, with 60% of voters under 30 supporting the former congressman compared to 40% who support Pilip. Conversely, Pilip holds a slight advantage among older voters; 54% of voters over 70 support Pilip, while 46% support Suozzi.
That’s not a good sign, though, since older voters (<65, though, not <70) are more likely to vote. And some of us aren’t really confident that the Democrat-to-Republican advantage in Early Voting is an indicator of success. We are hearing of both Democrats and Republicans who are voting for their opposite nominee, at least in the heel of the district where we are canvassing.
One more thing: Suozzi connected Pilip with Santos more often than we expected, but he explained it this way:
“I wouldn’t have brought George Santos up in this race because everybody’s sick of George Santos. They’ve had it with George Santos. They don’t want to hear about George Santos anymore,” Suozzi said. “But how can you run for Congress in this post-George Santos world and not be completely transparent? It’s shocking to me and I think it’s shocking to the voters as well.”
In this way, Suozzi really understand the electorate here. People are really sick of Santos, including the way he keeps trying to inject himself into the local narrative. Connecting Pilip to Santos certainly can’t hurt.
“This is the most I’ve paid attention to national politics in years,” one woman said to me at her door as she answered questions from our Issues Survey. And that’s what happens when voters think their vote really matters.
Dave Wasserman, the senior editor and election analyst for The Cook Political Report, said that a Pilip win would raise a red flag that the issues that plagued New York Democrats in the 2022 election have not gone away.
While the Republican “red wave” failed to materialize nationally during the 2022 midterms, the party had a good night in New York, flipping several congressional key seats across the state.
“If Democrats can't flip a district that voted for Biden by eight points, how can they make the case that they're going to take back the majority in November?” Wasserman said, referring to the 2020 results in what is now New York's 3rd Congressional District.
Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, a Long Island Republican, said a Pilip win should send a message to Democrats: “Perhaps their focus of trying to flip the seats in New York, perhaps they shouldn't move their focus elsewhere. Because Long Island has been strong.”
Meanwhile, a Suozzi victory, Wasserman said, would be a “sign that Democrats down ballot are capable of running ahead of Joe Biden's approval rating. Particularly if they are willing to take on their own party on immigration and crime.”
You can’t turn on the TV now without being inundated with political ads. And voters mention that at their doors. More than a few people have wondered, when will this all be over? But they have also told us that they have noticed that Suozzi has been showing up, working for their vote, while Pilip has basically been in hiding. “She didn’t learn that from the IDF,” one voter said.
But her strategy betrayed her last night:
Pilip at times became frustrated, and at one point, during an exchange over abortion, took a step toward Suozzi’s lectern. The Democrat responded with a deep cut New York political reference – joking that she was channeling former Senate candidate Rick Lazio, who infamously infringed on then-candidate Hillary Clinton’s turf during a 2000 campaign debate.
Sure, it’s a local reference and it’s hard to tell how many voters actually got it (although a few newscasters choose to explain it), but it did remind us how ingrained Suozzi is in the local political and social culture here.
The area (the “heel” of the district) we are canvassing is definitely a GOP stronghold. The primary early voting location we are feeding has had more than 1000 Republicans vote early — the only early vote location to do so. It really made clear where we were walking when we heard that! But there are Democratic votes to be found, and our presence on the streets only reinforces the need for other Democrats to go vote!
Our job is to turn out Democrats and progressives in spite even though we have a lot more infrequent voters on our side. Politico says that Republicans have “a robust field program,” although we aren’t seeing that in the heel of the district.
But you have to be pleased with the polling takeaway: “Regardless of which candidate they plan to support, a majority of voters (53%) expect Suozzi to win, while 47% expect Pilip to win.” That’s what we are working towards.
We knock on the doors of mostly Democratic voters with a high likelihood to vote. At every door, we leave a piece of Suozzi campaign lit and something that tells them we were there, hopefully reinforcing the Democratic brand.
But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopespecial
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!