There are some facts and factors that are not well appreciated:
The defendant has never won 47% of the vote. It is clear that when people think of the Republican Party, they think of the defendant. The Republican Party has fared very poorly with few exceptions since the defendant's 2016 46.1% victory in which nearly 54% of voters voted against him. And this is the only general election that the defendant won.
2017 How did the Republican Party fare in 2017 elections?
In 2018 because of how the composition of the Senate is determined, the Republican Party DID pick up 2 seats in the Senate, but Democratic Party picked up 41 seats in the House of Representatives
"In the 2018 elections, the Democrats, led by Nancy Pelosi, won control of the House. The Democrats gained a net total of 41 seats from the total number of seats they had won in the 2016 elections. The 41-seat gain was the Democrats' largest gain of House seats since the post-Watergate 1974 elections, when they picked up 49 seats. This was the first time since 1954 that Democrats flipped a chamber of Congress in a Republican president's first midterm. Democrats also won the popular vote by an 8.6% margin, the largest margin of victory for any party during a midterm election since 1986. "
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How the Republican Party fared in elections in 2019
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Democrats regained the governorship of Kentucky and held the office in Louisiana, despite strong campaign efforts by President Donald Trump for the Republican candidates. Democrats also took control of the state legislature in Virginia. Republicans held the governor's mansion in Mississippi and expanded their control of the Louisiana state legislature and gained seats in the New Jersey state legislature. A major theme in the election results was a suburban revolt against Trump and the Republican Party in general, as these areas swung heavily towards Democratic candidates in local, state, and federal elections.[1][2]
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The 2020 presidential election results
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Trump became the eleventh incumbent in the country's history, and the first since 1992, to lose a bid for a second term. Biden's 51.3% of the popular vote was the highest for a challenger to an incumbent president since 1932.[315][316][317][m] B
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2021 elections
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The 2021 United States elections were held in large part on Tuesday, November 2, 2021. This off-year election included the regular gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. In addition, state legislative elections were held for the New Jersey Legislature and Virginia House of Delegates (the lower house of the Virginia General Assembly), along with numerous state legislative special elections, citizen initiatives, mayoral races, and a variety of other local elections. Six special elections to the United States House of Representatives also took place on November 2 or earlier as a result of either deaths or vacancies. The first of these was held on March 20.
Seats contested |
6 early-term vacancies |
Net seat change |
0 |
Republican candidates made significant gains up and down the ballot.[1][2] Glenn Youngkin, the Republican nominee in the Virginia gubernatorial election, prevailed against Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe in an upset.[3] Youn
As part of the 2020 United States Senate elections, Georgia held run-off elections for both of its Senate seats on January 5, 2021. The run-off elections were triggered because of a Georgia law requiring a second round when no individual wins a majority of the vote in most federal, state, and local elections.[a] Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock were the victors in those special elections, which gave the Democrats a total of 48 seats to the Republicans' 50. However, the victories resulted in a shift of power to the Democrats; the other two senators, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, are both independents who belong to the Democrats' caucus, and since any tied vote is broken by the President of the Senate—in this case Vice President Kamala Harris, also a Democrat—the Democrats technically hold a one-seat majority.
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Several points should be made here. First, I am focused on federal elections. These elections are a better reflection of where voters are regarding the two political parties and who voters want to run the government. Second, the Virginia and New Jersey governor's races have a long history of going to the major political party out of power. Third, Youngkin separated himself from Donald Trump. Youngkin pretended to be a moderate. In 2023, Virginia elections rebuked Youngkin. Fourth, Youngkin only won by two percentage points. Fifth, other than the US Senate elections, Congress remained as it was. Outside of Virginia, elections seemed to go to thewhoever had the partisan advantage in the congressional district. There is no way in Hell that the Democratic Party should have won the two US Senate elections in Georgia. The Democratic Party voters should have been complacent and the Republican Party voters should have been extremely motivated. Yet, Both Senator Warnock and Senator Ossoff won . Therefore, this cannot be considered a good result for Donald Trump or the Republican Party.
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The 2022 US elections
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Midterm elections typically see the incumbent president's party lose a substantial number of seats,[6][7] but Democrats outperformed the historical trend and a widely anticipated red wave did not materialize.[8][9][10][11][12] Republicans narrowly won the House due to their overperformance in the nation's four largest states: Texas, Florida, and traditionally Democratic New York and California. The Democratic Party increased their seats in the Senate by one, as they won races in critical battleground states, where voters rejected Donald Trump-aligned Republican candidates. This is the most recent election cycle in which the president's party gained Senate seats and simultaneously lost House seats in a midterm, along with 1914, 1962, 1970, and 2018; it was the first midterm in which Democrats did so since 1962.[13]
The Democratic Party's strength in state-level and senatorial elections was unexpected,[13] as well as historic.[14][15][16] They won a net gain of two seats in the gubernatorial elections, flipping the governorships in Arizona,[17] Maryland, and Massachusetts;[18] conversely, Republicans flipped Nevada's governorship.[19] In the state legislative elections, Democrats flipped both chambers of the Michigan Legislature, the Minnesota Senate, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives,[20] and achieved a coalition government in the Alaska Senate. As a result of these legislative and gubernatorial results, Democrats gained government trifectas in Michigan for the first time since 1985,[21] and in Massachusetts, Maryland, and Minnesota for the first time since 2015.[22] 2022 is the first midterm since 1934 in which the president's party did not lose any state legislative chambers or incumbent senators. It was also the first midterm since 1986 in which either party achieved a net gain of governorships while holding the presidency,[23][15][24] and the first since 1934 in which the Democrats did so under a Democratic president.[25] Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida—previously considered one of the nation's most contested swing states—won reelection in a landslide. More generally, Florida was one of the only states where some evidence of the predicted 'red wave' materialized.[26][27][28]
Six referendums to preserve or expand abortion access uniformly won,[29][30] including in the states of Kansas,[a] Kentucky, Michigan, and Montana,[31]
In addition, the incumbent president almost always loses seats in Congress and often at least one chamber or overall control, in particular since the post-war period.[67][68]
Republicans were benefiting from Biden's low U.S. presidential approval ratings,[107] hovering from 30–40% for much of the year.[209][210] His rati
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This is different than and better than the Republican Party's performance in 2018. The Republican Party's win of the US Senate in 2018 didn't reflect the mood or views of the electorate concerning the two political parties and their leaders. This is so because (1) only a third of the US Senate is up for election every two years (2) The US Senate does not reflect the electorate because each state has two US Senators regardless of population. (3) (3) The Democratic Party won 41 more seats in 2022 than in 2020 whereas the Republican Party only gained nine seats in the House of Representatives compared to 2016.
Two of the other handful of exceptions to the general rule that the major political party in power in the White House loses seats in Congress do not apply here. In 2002, because of rally around the leader patriotism after September 11th, the President George W Bush had a 71% approval rating. This was manifestly not the case with President Biden whose approval rating at that time 39%. In 1934, voters wanted to give them President FDR more time to lead the country out of the Great Depression.
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Senator Ted Cruz famously predicted a red tsunami with the Republican Party gaining a 50-60 seat majority in the House of Representatives and a 5-7 seat majority in the US Senate. In fact, the Republican Party only won a nine seat majority because of gerrymandering and the Democratic Party actually made gains in the Senate. The Democratic Party also made gains in state government across the country. Despite very high inflation, abortion and women's bodily autonomy and freedom dominated the election and drove the election results to be what they were in addition to democracy. Pro choice defeated forced birtherism in extremely red states. The importance of Dobbs electorally cannot be overemphasized.
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2023 US elections
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The election cycle was generally marked by a trend of strong Democratic overperformances in special elections. Daily Kos and FiveThirtyEight analyses of at least 38 races in September 2023[a] determined that the party outperformed the partisan lean by an average of 10 percent. In comparison, Democrats outperformed by an average of 4 percent in elections held between the 2018 and 2020 elections, and an average of 7.6 percent in elections held in 2020. The 2023 overperformances consisted of unusually larger margins of victory in races held in safely Democratic areas and unusually smaller margins of defeat in races held in safely Republican areas.[1][2] The results indicate a suburban shift among affluent, college-educated voters that started as an underlying reaction to Donald Trump's election in 2016.[3] While the results were generally in line with predictions, Democrats still outperformed expectations despite the low approval ratings of incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden and polls indicating his middling prospects in the 2024 presidential election.[4]
Both Democratic and Republican operatives attributed the Democrats' overperformance streak to general support of broad abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision. This marked a continuing trend of bipartisan voter support for ballot initiative on abortion rights since the June 2022 decision.[5][6] Many conservative political analysts and commentators called a continued Republican alliance with the anti-abortion movement "untenable" and an "electoral disaster", and urged the party to favor abortion rights
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Democratic Party overperformance in 38 special elections
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In 2024, the defendant is underperforming his polls in the Republican Party's primaries
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Michigan is the fourth state in a row Trump has underperformed public polling," Democratic political strategist Simon Rosenberg said on X. "Trump and the GOP are weak, not strong.
"They've been having performance problems since Dobbs [v. Jackson Women's Health Organization] and we are seeing these problems, their struggle, in early 2024."
Rosenberg was referring to the U.S. Supreme Court's 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization that overturned Roe v. Wade.
Justin Wolfers, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan, said that the recent primary results gave four separate examples of Trump "dramatically" underperforming.
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In my view, the pollsters are still fighting the previous election's results. Previously, the defendant performed better than the polls. This is undeniable. It really happened. I strongly suspect that pollsters having seen this happen in 2020 were determined to not let it happen again. They have, therefore, tried to include shy Trumpers whom they missed previously.
However, it is my contention that President Biden and the Democratic Party will overperform the polls. The defendant has yet to meet or surpass 47% in the general election in the popular vote. This is the first time that the defendant is facing the voters since the insurrection and since Dobbs. We are eight months out from the presidential election. election. Republican voters fall in line and submit to and their republican leaders and believe whatever their leaders say. On the other hand, Democratic Party voters and those on the left are much more critical and independent and do not automatically support their political party's leaders or subscribe to whatever their major political party's leaders talking points.
Furthermore, it takes a while for voters to recognize that a bad economy has been transformed into a good economy. The University of Michigan's surveys have shown that for two consecutive months and increasing number of voters are recognizing that the economy is improving and good. I believe that within the next eight months a majority of a plurality of voters will view the economy as good. Real wages are growing; wages are growing FASTER than inflation.
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I believe that most of the most important members of the media individually believed that President Biden should not run for reelection from the beginning, suspecting that he was too old to be president in the first term. This was not, however, a conspiracy. They, therefore, pushed the Joe Biden is too old meme. President Biden has struggled with stuttering since he was a child. He sometimes slurs his words. He moves slowly. He commits gaffes. They used all of this to promote the idea that President Biden was too old to be president because he was in "cognitive decline". Joe Biden has committed gaffes since he was a young senator. Nobody previously connected these gaffes with cognitive decline. If anybody had done so, they would have been embarrassed by experts. Connecting these gaffes with questioning President Biden's mental fitness was dishonest as they knew there was no connection between the gaffes and President Biden's mental fitness. The electorate, admittedly, is not optimally educated, does not possess sophisticated critical thinking skills, and is ignorant of relevant facts. They see somebody who slurs his words and is hard to understand and who moves slowly and is an octogenarian. They see another person (caked in orange makeup to say nothing of his hair) who moves faster and takes much more loudly and who seems more energetic and conclude that the defendant is in better shape somehow than President Biden. The right wing echo chamber has taken advantage of President Biden's slurring of his words, softer speech, gaffes and the media's help and pushed the claim that President Biden was in significant cognitive decline. Their base fell for this lie. President Biden has begun laying waste to this false claim by a strong State of the Union speech and by beginning to actively campaign. As voters see more of President Biden and is presented repeatedly to the manifestations of the cognitive decline of the defendant, this will be less important than the fascist antidemocratic of his opponent and his opponent's opposition to pro choice and embrace of the forced birtherism.
The conventions are yet future and so, possibly, are criminal trials of the defendant. As the Democratic Party reveals the year of 2020 and how much better off we are now and reminds the anti-Trump coalition of Trump's attempted coup, the violent insurrection, Trump's intentional mismanagement of COVID, and how the economy has turned around, I expect almost all of the members of the previous anti-Trump coalition to reappear and defeat Donald Trump again. Many will understand that if we sufficiently smash the defendant in the general election, then we will have reduced Trump's outsized power over our political life and even the Republican Party. A second loss with Trump actually on the ballot and their losses when he was in the minds of voters if not on the ballot combined with likely convictions will greatly diminish the defendant's hold on the Republican Party. I cannot foresee a voter whom Trump attempted to disenfranchise by his attempted coup failing to vote for the only candidate who can defeat the defendant.
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Putting all of this together, I believe President Biden will defeat the defendant.
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