So according to Polls the following are apparently all true at the same time.
1. Most Americans rate saving democracy as one of the top issues in 2024.
2. Most Americans support access to reproductive choice.
3. Most Americans support stricter gun laws including background checks
4. Most Americans view Climate Change as real and feel the need to address it.
5. Most Americans approve of the US being part of Nato.
1a. Trump has vowed that if he does not win in 2024 there will be a bloodbath and that he admires strong men like Putin, Orban, Erdogan, Kim Jung Un, and Xi Jinping.
2a. Trump has claimed full responsibility for the Dobbs decision overturning Roe V. Wade.
3a. Trump has told the NRA that he is their best friend and there will be no gun legislation in his administration.
4a. Trump said he will Drill Drill Drill on day one and increase our reliance on fossil fuels.
5a. Trump has given the green light for Putin to roll over any country that does not live up to their “NATO dues” despite the US being a founding member of NATO and is committed under article V.
All of the following are true according to Polls and actual recordings of Trump’s verbal meanderings.
And yet if we are to believe the latest Polls in many swing states Trump is ahead. How can that be?
Are the people who turned out in Ohio, and Kansas and Michigan to preserve abortion rights suddenly going to support the candidate who brags about taking those rights away? Or not be motivated to support the candidate vowing to defend those rights?
Are the people who voted for Biden in 2020 going to say, “You know despite all these indictments and the lying and the insurrection, I now think Trump is my guy”?
Are the people who didn’t vote in 2020 going to now be motivated to get out to the polls to support someone who is bent on making it harder to vote in 2024?
I think the entire process by which polls are done harkens back to the days before the internet and cell phones and definition of “likely voters”.
Those unlikely voters based on profiles of likely voters are being excluded. I submit that when you take away people’s rights and attack non-white, non-Christian, non-male constituents at every campaign rally those “unlikely voters” are going to be far more likely to vote. If they aren’t, we are all going to get to relive the lessons that Germany lived 90 years ago. And we all know how that turned out.