I have heard people say that violent crime is running wild in the United States under President Joe Biden.
I wonder if that is true….
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I don’t always believe what people tell me.
I like to check the stats….
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Let’s check the stats!
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The chart I show in this post is from the FBI’s Crime Data Explorer which shows data from 2012 to 2022.
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The last two years on this chart show 2021 and 2022, when Biden was president.
The four years before that, 2017-2020, were the years when Trump was president.
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Look at the violent crime rate the first year Biden was president, 2021.
That was right in the range of what we had when Trump was president.
Trump actually had two years worse than 2021 and two years better than 2021.
So, NO big surge of crime under President Biden.
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Now look at the second year Biden was president, 2022.
The violent crime rate in 2022, when Biden was president, was lower than it EVER was in the four years Trump was president.
I want to say that again because I keep hearing people say that since Biden became president there has been this terrible crime wave…
The TRUTH is, Biden had a LOWER violent crime rate in 2022 than Trump EVER had in ANY of his four years.
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The average violent crime rate under Trump’s 4 years was 389.4 per 100,000.
The average violent crime rate under Biden’s first two years was 383.9 per 100,000.
There was no violent crime surge under Biden.
In fact, violent crime rates have been LOWER under Biden.
I bet we won’t hear that in a Trump campaign speech!
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If people want to vote for Trump they should vote for Trump.
But we shouldn’t let them PRETEND there is some mythical crime surge influencing their vote.
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What about 2023?
The FBI data does not show 2023 data yet but there is a company called AH Datalytics that tries to estimate crime rates by looking at crimes in a sample set of American cities.
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According to an article in Christian Science Monitor, ““What’s more, every type of [serious crime] with the exception of auto theft is likely down a considerable amount this year [2023] relative to last year [2022],” writes Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics, which tracks crime data in 180 cities.”
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So, in 2022, under Biden, we already had violent crime lower than it ever was under Trump.
According to AH Datalytics serious crimes except for auto theft (which is actually not classified as a violent crime) should be down “a considerable amount” more in 2023.
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Now, AH Datalytics is talking about “serious crime” and the FBI data shows “violent crime.”
But if serious crime and violent crime move together, which does not seem wildly improbable, then 2023 should be even safer than 2022, which was already safer than we ever were under the ex-president.
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If you hear someone saying there is a wild crime surge under President Joe Biden please share this information with them.
If they keep saying there is a wild crime surge under Biden even after they have seen this evidence to the contrary, I think it is fair to call them liars.
Some people really are liars you know.
We might as well face it….
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My links to the sources for this post are freely available upon request.