Politics in California
California is a deep blue state — Biden beat Trump by almost 30 points in 2020 — yet a Republican leads the polls in the race for Diane Feinstein’s old job. Despite this, Democrats have little reason to worry. Barring an act of God, the seat will stay in Democratic hands. For this odd state of affairs, we can thank California’s election laws and the cynical realism of politics.
Republican Steve Garvey
Steve Garvey was a well-known, good (NL MVP), but not Hall of Fame caliber baseball player who starred for the LA Dodgers and the SD Padres in the 1970s and 80s. He is now the leading Republican candidate in this year’s US Senate race in California.
Garvey presented a clean-cut, All-American aspect to the world. But behind the facade, he was an adulterer who fathered children with four different women. Two of whom he never married. This moral turpitude may explain why the misnomered party of ‘family values' welcomes him. In fact, his carefully constructed “devoted family man” image hides a soulless sociopath. As reported by the LA Times
Two of the children, who were born out of wedlock, said in a statement: “In our childhoods, multiple efforts were made through attorneys to arrange a meeting or even a phone call with Mr. Garvey, but he declined every opportunity.”
Garvey’s oldest child, Krisha Garvey, 49, said he cut her off for unknown reasons 15 years ago. “There’s something lacking in him, something not authentic,” she told the Times. “I wouldn’t want the people of California to buy into that just because he hit a ball really well.”
Again, none of this is a disqualifier for the Republican voter.
Neither is the fact that he has few fleshed-out policies. As he said in a January debate among the primary contenders.
“I knew I needed to explore California. I needed to talk to the people. Policy for me is a position. I’ve taken strong positions.”
Good for him. It was enough for the MAGAs, who do not expect their candidates to have a plan beyond slogans. And his performance to date has him in first place in the primary polls. Not that the Democrats have much to worry about. Why? Because while Garvey appears to be in the lead, he is not in the lead.
How California does elections
Garvey has a primary poll lead because California has open primaries. Every candidate for an elected political job in the state runs in a universal primary, regardless of political affiliation. The two top vote-getters then run against each other in a general election.
The primary for the US Senate seat is on March 5. Primary polling by UC Berkley has Garvey with 27%. Rep Adam Schiff (D-CA) at 25%, Rep Katie Porter (D-CA) at 19%. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) at 8%, other candidates at 12% and undecided at 8%.
This is a fabulous result for Garvey. As recently as January, he was not in the top two. Those spots had been occupied by heavyweights Schiff and Porter. If the polls hold, the November election will be between Garvey and Schiff — which is fabulous news for Schiff. It is something the leading Democrat in the polls is trying to guarantee.
Why Schiff wants to face Garvey.
California will elect a Democrat to the Senate. If there is only one left in the contest, they are a shoo-in. If the two finalists are both Democrats, the result will be less predictable. With a Republican in the race, the Democratic candidate will run on policies overwhelmingly favored by Californians. If there are two, the race will be a civil war fought viciously on nuance — with the result up in the air.
Adam Schiff knows this. As the LA Times reported:
Schiff (D-Burbank) would be an overwhelming favorite to beat Garvey in heavily Democratic California. The poll finds Schiff starting with a significant lead in a two-way matchup, 53% to 38%, with 9% undecided. By contrast, a general election between Schiff and Porter (D-Irvine) would start out tied, with 4 in 10 voters undecided, the poll found.
Schiff has a pile of cash — he had $35 million in the bank at the end of 2023. And he has spent $25 million framing the race as one between him and Garvey. His ads say things like:
“Two leading candidates for Senate. Two very different visions for California,” a narrator intones, noting later that Garvey “is too conservative for California” and voted for Donald Trump twice.”
Democratic political consultant Garry South, who ran Gov. Gray Davis’ successful 2002 reelection campaign, explains:
“It’s pretty clear Schiff is trying to bolster Garvey’s credibility as his opponent in the runoff and then Schiff can take the rest of the summer off.”
While this has promoted the cash-strapped Garvey — who has shot up from 7% last August — it has Porter and her team spitting nails. She tweeted:
“Adam Schiff knows he will lose to me in November. That’s what this brazenly cynical ad is about — furthering his own political career, boxing out qualified Democratic women candidates, and boosting a Republican candidate to do it. We need honest leadership, not political games.”
Porter’s outrage is performative. Politicians will always play games. And while we all hope for honest leadership, honest leaders will not get elected if they play by the Marquis of Queensbury rules. Porter may complain about Schiff’s tactics, but she accuses Schiff of misogyny. Is he a bigot? Or is Porter playing games as much as Schiff? Who knows?
Besides, nobody knows who would win a race between two Democrats.
Conclusion
I do not know which Democrat is best for California. I am sure that Schiff, Porter, and Lee all have fans who can explain why their guy/gal should get the nod. I suspect that many DKers have strong thoughts.
However, speaking as a non-Californian who does not know enough to offer an informed opinion, it makes little difference nationally which one represents California. So far, none have shown any sign, of which I am aware, that they are a potential Krysten Sinema, a Democrat who abandoned her voters, or a Joe Manchin, who calls himself a Democrat but is an unreliable Democratic vote.
Perhaps Schiff is playing dirty pool. But to be honest and selfish, I only want Democrats who know how to win in Congress. If Porter has anything left in the tank, she has three days to figure it out if she wants to be one of those winners. Whining — no matter how justified — will not get the job done.