Two items in The NY Times today:
A guest editorial by by author John Vaillant talks about what is happening. Flying over the middle of the country recently, he was struck by what was missing: snow cover. It’s just not there, and it would be if we hadn’t cranked up the planetary thermostat.
...For weeks now, red flag warnings from the National Weather Service indicating elevated wildfire risk have been popping up all across the United States — from the Mexican border to the Great Lakes and the Florida panhandle. Similar warnings are appearing north of the Canadian border. On Feb. 20, the province of Alberta, the Texas-size petro-state above Montana, declared the official start to fire season. This was nearly two weeks earlier than last year, and six weeks earlier than a couple of decades ago. Alberta is in the heart of Canada, a famously cold and snowy place, and yet some 50 wildfires are burning across that province. In neighboring British Columbia, where I live, there are nearly 100 active fires, a number of which carried over from last year’s legendary fire season (the worst in Canadian history) linked to low snowpack and above average winter temperatures.
Here’s the kicker:
It is alarming to see these fires and warnings in what is supposed to be the dead of winter, but fire, as distracting and dangerous as it is, is merely one symptom. What is happening in North America is not a regional aberration; it’s part of a global departure — what climate scientists call a phase shift. The past year has seen virtually every metric of planetary distress lurch into uncharted territory: sea surface temperature, air temperature, polar ice loss, fire intensity — you name it, it is off the charts. It was 72 degrees Fahrenheit in Wisconsin on Tuesday, and 110 degrees Fahrenheit in Paraguay; large portions of the North Pacific and the South Atlantic are running more than five degrees Fahrenheit above normal.
emphasis added
Shorter version — there’s no place left you can go that isn’t feeling the effects of a warming planet.
People are already coming to a realization that this is real in a very end-times kind of tourism. The Morning Newsletter summary by Desiree Ibekwe spotlights one story with this headline:
Travelers are racing to see parts of the world that may soon vanish.
...As the Earth warms, natural wonders — coral reefs, glaciers, archipelagos — are at risk of damage and disappearance. This has motivated some travelers to engage in “last-chance tourism,” visiting places threatened by climate change before it’s too late.
“For thousands of years, humans have raced to be the first to scale a peak, cross a frontier, or document a new species or landscape,” Paige McClanahan writes in a piece for The Times. “Now, in some cases, we’re racing to be the last.”
McClanahan’s article describes a paradox:
“Last-chance tourists” are visiting the melting Mer de Glace in Chamonix, France, in droves. A just-opened lift should make that easier. But some worry tourism is only making the problem worse.
...The term last-chance tourism, which has gained traction in the past two decades, describes the impulse to visit threatened places before they disappear. Studies have found that the appeal of the disappearing can be a powerful motivator. But in many cases, the presence of tourists at a fragile site can accelerate the place’s demise.
There is some evidence that a visit to a threatened place can inspire meaningful behavioral change in visitors, potentially helping to offset the negative impacts of a trip. But research is still in its early stages, and results are mixed.
I’ve lived at my current address for 25 years; I’ve seen how the winters have changed since I first moved here. The snow simply doesn’t fall the way it used to, or accumulate. Part of the climate awareness problem is recognizing the long term changes amid the noise of weather events like fires, floods, storms. The article by McClanahan relates the experiences of an 80 year-old French man who was shocked to see how a popular glacier had shrunk since his last visit 40 years ago.
Standing at the overlook, Mr. Folmer, the 80-year-old visitor, said that he gave up flying two years ago out of concern for the climate, and that he makes local trips on his bicycle when he can.
“I don’t blame people who fly occasionally when they go on vacation,” Mr. Folmer said, looking down at the glacier. “But when you see this, you think each of us can make a little personal effort.”
So here we are — the latest version of a bucket list now has to include the category “see it before it’s gone.”
I was involved some years ago trying to stop New York State from ripping out a rail line in the Adirondacks to convert it to a trail, for cyclists and especially for snowmobilers. The line ran from Utica (which is served by Amtrak) all the way to Lake Placid. The region sees over half a million visitors a year. In a ‘compromise’, the state rehabbed the northern end of the line up to Tupper Lake, but ripped out the last 34 miles to Saranac Lake and Lake Placid for a trail.
This move, rammed through by then governor Andrew Cuomo, was driven by wealthy interests who wanted the trains out of their backyard, local cycling fanatics who wanted a trail, and snowmobilers who had exclusive use of the corridor in winter months, but complained the rails were damaging their machines when the snow wasn't deep enough. They were backed up by hotel and bar owners who depend on sledders to get them through the winter months.
So, a rail corridor that could have provided year-round passenger service to a prime tourist destination was truncated. It’s made cars the only practical way for people to travel to the region — and locals complain about parking and traffic. It could have diversified the local tourism economy. If freight service had been allowed on the line, it could have taken trucks off the highways too. All of this would have cut greenhouse gas emissions, a key problem with tourism.
I listened to a NY State Department of Environmental Conservation final meeting to approve the trail plan. The only concern that was raised about greenhouse gas emissions was just how they were going to measure them from snowmobile traffic!
So how is this working out?
According to a report in the Adirondack Daily Enterprise:
Tupper trails and rail trial corridor now closed
...While Tupper Lake — and the Tri-Lakes as a whole — has seen snow, NOWData shows 13 days of temperature highs above 40 in December 2023, with 50 degrees topping the list on Dec. 12, 2023. This January was much colder, with the highest temperature recorded reaching 39 degrees on Jan. 26.
...February saw the most freeze-thaw cycles, which wreak havoc on snow. According to NOWData, nine days of the month saw temperatures above 40 degrees, with an unprecedented 60 degree high on Feb. 28. On seven of those nine days, the nighttime lows reached below freezing, with four hitting single digits.
This has kept the sledders from using the trails, which have now been closed. The climate impact is going to become worse over time as winter weather becomes more erratic. Granted, the money was persuasive in the political calculations:
The New York State Snowmobile Association reports that snowmobiling has an economic impact in New York of around $573 million annually, with around $245 million attributed to the Adirondacks. In a 2011 NYSSA survey conducted by the Potsdam Institute for Applied Research, SUNY Potsdam, total statewide snowmobiling spending came in at just over $434 million.
What NYSSA is less eager to admit is the way the numbers for snowmobilers have been dropping. The short-sighted decision to “follow the money” has led to the loss of infrastructure that could have played a significant role in cutting tourism emissions and making the local economy less dependent on snow and ice.
The Lake George Winter Carnival in the southern Adirondacks has been forced to adapt. The news report at the link shows the lake is not even frozen — in February.
As it happens, the rail line is still operating from Utica to Tupper Lake, and doing well so far. They have special event excursions and an upcoming schedule for the summer/fall months. If you’re planning some tourism in the Adirondacks, this would be one way to support something that’s a little more climate-friendly. I’ve booked a seat on the April 8 Eclipse excursion — it looks like there are still a few seats in Coach.
(*disclaimer — I do not get any compensation for promoting the rail line.)