The late Robert A. Heinlein in one of his novels had a character remark that he knew of a man who started a rumor there had been a big oil strike in Hell. As I recall from the story, this started a rush of people to get in on it, and generated a lot of wild speculation. As the excitement continued to build, the man watched it with some amusement at first… then eventually ended up going himself, because, as he said, there might be something to it.
I am reminded of this because at this point I’m wondering how much of the continuing string of polls with bad news for President Biden is because of polls asking people about the bad news they see from the constant headlines reporting poll bad news, if you get my drift. If you only read the headlines, you could easily believe Biden is the most unpopular president of all time.
It’s like the media can’t help itself once it comes up with a narrative that works for them — meaning it draws eyeballs. “If it bleeds, it leads. If it smells, it sells” as the saying goes. It becomes self-reinforcing. I also have to wonder how much of it is deliberate at this point. The pattern is too consistent to be accidental.
If I understand correctly what is going on here with this latest poll, writers at the Times are looking at the data from poll responses and how it breaks down by various groups, and then they do some statistical mumbo-jumbo to pull conclusions out of it to generate headlines. And by some strange coincidence, they reference and reinforce right wing talking points.
You can see the cross tabs from the poll here, the questions and how they break down by voter categories. (Full access) They list the questions — except for a few being held for later revelations, and look at some other topics, like Gaza, the border situation, and have an extensive breakdown of the demographics of the 980 people used to extrapolate how millions of American voters feel.
I somehow missed the questions about why people feel this way. /s
Curiously, there’s one question in the poll that seems to have gotten very little coverage, let alone headlines:
Thinking about the investigations into Donald Trump, do you think that Donald Trump has or has not committed any serious federal crimes?
Donald Trump has committed serious federal crimes — 53%
Donald Trump has not committed serious federal crimes — 36%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused — 11%
And that’s the only poll question directly related to the multiple charges Trump is facing. Curious, is it not?
There’s plenty of bad headlines for President Biden — that are also good for Trump. And for news about Trump alone, the headlines are how he keeps winning primaries. Win Win Win! Not so much about turnout numbers, or how he has been underperforming poll predictions, having memory lapses, or saying crazy shit. Nope — it’s all about how he’s winning the horserace.
And darned little on how well Biden is doing in Democratic primaries. Or how well Democrats have been doing in special elections. Funny how that works. And… not a whole lot about what either candidate would do if they win in 2024.
Back of Bourke has looked at the poll, and he has some questions.
There is no such thing as “The Liberal Media” and hasn’t been for a long time. Adjust your expectations accordingly
[EDIT: I added this headline just because there seems to be a need to be explicit about this section.]
Now if you think this is a problem with The NY Times, you wouldn’t be wrong — but the bigger picture isn’t any prettier. Jamison Foser writing on Substack at Finding Gravity back on February 22, 2024 discussed a Quinnipiac Poll and how it was reported in assorted news outlets. He starts out by saying we shouldn’t be thinking about polls too much, but felt impelled to comment on this one.
Large majorities say Trump isn't ethical, doesn't care about average Americans, and lacks the temperament to be president.
Yes, you are reading that headline correctly. To except from Foser on the poll results:
...So Biden is beating Trump; Biden is viewed more favorably than Trump; 68 percent of Americans say Trump is not ethical; 61 percent say Trump does not have the personality and temperament to serve effectively as president; nearly 60 percent say Trump doesn’t care about average Americans, and Trump’s batshit crazy statement that he would encourage Russia to attack NATO is quite properly seen as batshit crazy by nearly everyone. That’s a pretty terrible poll for Trump!
So how did news outlets report on this poll? Foser shows a couple of headlines (all negative for Biden) and then summarizes it thusly:
...And no, it isn’t just the headlines: Neither POLITICO nor AXIOS mentioned any of the poll findings that were bad for Trump (aside from the fact that he trails Biden in the presidential race — and, incredibly, AXIOS didn’t even mention that.) Nor did the other two news companies5 that had reported on the poll as of this writing.
That’s right: Every news company that has reported on the Quinnipiac poll thought it newsworthy that 67 percent of Americans say Biden is too old to be president and none of them thought it was newsworthy that 68 percent say Trump is unethical, or that 61 percent say Trump lacks the temperament to be president, or that 57 percent say he doesn’t care about regular people, or that by a margin of 71-18 Americans disagree with Trump’s let-Russia-do-whatever-it-wants platform. This despite the fact that the ethics, temperament and caring-about-people findings were included in the Quinnipiac press release that the articles were based on:
February 21, 2024 2024 Election: Biden Holds On To Slight Lead Over Trump, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Trump Gets Higher Marks On Age, Mental & Physical Fitness; Biden Does BetterOn Ethics, Empathy & Temperament
Foser is explicit. This kind of bias isn’t just in reporting and interpreting poll results. It’s pervasive and systematic. As he concludes with this critique:
The bias might not be as easy to spot in other types of stories, but you can bet it’s there. It’s there when they help Trump — who promised to appoint Supreme Court justices who would overturn Roe, did so, and then bragged about it — by pretending that his position on abortion is ambiguous. It’s there when they portray Trump’s secret plan to ban abortion as a moderate compromise. It’s there when they downplay Trump’s ongoing efforts to incite violence — and even portray him as a “tough on crime” candidate. It’s there when they frame everything Biden does negatively.
emphasis added
It’s also there in the things they don’t cover — the positive things Biden has accomplished, his strengths, his character, how well his administration works versus the ongoing deterioration of Trump and reminding us of the total dysfunction and corruption of his time in office. Then there’s the crazy stuff he says now. Joe Conason picks up on a Barabara Comstock tweet and asks Why isn't this front-page news @nytimes, @washingtonpost, @CNN, @MSNBC?
Barbara Comstock @BarbaraComstock
Trump said in Richmond, that he will take all federal funds away from public schools that require vaccines. Like most states, Virginia requires MMR vaccine, chickenpox vaccine, polio, etc. So Trump would take millions in federal funds away from all Virginia public schools.
This John Oliver show from 8 years ago has a number of clips of Trump from around 2015 and earlier. Compared with how he looks and sounds these days not quite 10 years later, it really shows how much he has declined. Yet it’s Biden they are ‘concerned’ about?
You’d never know Trump incited an insurrection either — it seems to have disappeared from the coverage of his campaign, aside from news about his much-delayed trials. Or worse, it gets transmogrified into something like this, via Josh Marshall:
Kristen Welker says that Trump "allegedly" tried to overturn the 2020 election. No, he really tried to do that. We lived through it!
This is why people are turning to alternatives to the failing mainstream media. Foser’s latest at Finding Gravity addresses that with links to a number of places to get what the MSM won’t tell you.
A few things, mostly by people who aren't me, that are worth your time
One in particular stands out in this context: Oliver Willis at Oliver Willis Explains
The Media Wants Liberals To Shut Up And Take It. Don't.
The Media Isn't Liberal And Has Never Been
The right has been engaged in sixty-plus year campaign to criticize and bully the mainstream media and it has been extraordinarily effective. In fact, it has been one of the conservative movement’s most successful efforts.
The foolish notion that the profit-driven sensationalist corporate media is nonetheless a member in good standing of the organized left is something that has permeated the brains not just of political activists, but the public at large. “The liberal media” mythology is gospel truth to far too many Americans…
...In no universe is Trump’s authoritarian and fake claim that he won the 2020 election anywhere on par with legitimate concerns about Biden’s age. The only way you could make those two world views two sides of the same coin would be if liberals insisted that Biden is only 50 years old despite the clear evidence to the contrary.
But the Sulzbergers of the world are letting liberals know that they should just shut up and take it. We also saw this over and over again from Maggie Haberman at the New York Times, who responded to legitimate criticisms of her hagiographic coverage of Trump with the bad faith claim that liberals just wanted her to say mean things about Trump, and that Hillary Clinton was solely to blame for her loss (never mind the Times front page working as a Trump Super PAC).
Read the whole thing. Willis has chapter and verse, and has brought the receipts.
The next time someone complains about “Liberal Media Bias”, try not to slap them in the face or grind your teeth. Writers and news sources like Foser, Willis, Talking Points Media, Charlie Pierce at Esquire, The Guardian, Digby (see below) are worth checking out and supporting. Some of them require paid subscriptions; some ask for donations, some allow free access. (Please list your own suggestions in comments.)
More on poll hysteria via Digby:
Digby cites Scott Rosenberg on other polls than the one at the Times, how there are problems with the Times poll, and what they’re not looking at.
Digby brings up a Salon post from 2016 on how the Right Wing attacked Hillary Clinton as having serious health issues — and the Mainstream Media jumped right on that narrative.
Digby brings up analysis by Joan Walsh from 2022 as a reminder that polls got things seriously wrong.