Tonight, we will have our first primary of the 2024 election cycle for Senate and Congressional elections, and all eyes will be on the California primary. For just the second time since 1992, we have an open Senate race in the Golden State.
Unlike in most states, in California, all parties run in the same primary, and the top two candidates regardless of party move on to a general election. Democrats will be heavily favored in the general election, so the question is whether we will see two Democrats compete against each other in November, or a Democrat and Republican. Either way, the odds of a Democrat Senators winning in California is over 95%.
RacetotheWH was one of the most accurate election forecasts in the last two election cycles, and called every Senate primary it forecasted correctly in 2022. They are forecasting the California Senate primary.
Thanks to his substantial advantage in polling and fundraising, Congressman Adam Schiff is a clear and heavy favorite to claim one of the top two spots in the general election. The real battle is for second place. Former MLB star Republican Steve Garvey has successfully consolidated the support of most of the GOP according to recent polls and enters with a slight but meaningful edge in polling over Progressive Congresswoman Katie Porter.
However, it would be a big mistake to rule Katie Porter out. On all four other metrics outside of polling that the forecast uses Porter has an advantage. She trounces Garvey in fundraising, endorsements, and political experience, and on election day voters are searching her name at a slightly higher rate. Therefore, a Porter appearance in the general election would be far from surprising.
Finally, Barbara Lee is the fourth candidate with a shot of making the general election. However, she would need to have a last-second surge or a big polling miss to win an upset at this stage in the race.
For much more on the race, including the chance each candidate has of making the primary, and a full list of polls, explore the CA Senate Primary forecast on RacetotheWH. They also are predicting how likely each party is to win the Senate and House.