Apologies if this has been covered already, I couldn’t find anything.
There’s an interesting post today from Torta about poll reliability, and it reflects an impression I’ve already had: maybe they haven’t been that inaccurate after all.
So I collected info from the AP Elections Page and 538 polls. (Thanks, 538, for leaving them up.) There was an earlier post examining Super Tuesday polling, so that’s the first group.
st |
T / total cast |
538 poll |
date |
var |
Super |
note |
va |
63.0% |
55% |
3/3/24 |
8.00% |
y |
|
ut |
56.4% |
49% |
1/21/24 |
7.40% |
y |
|
ca |
79.2% |
76% |
3/3/24 |
3.20% |
y |
|
al |
83.2% |
80% |
3/3/24 |
3.20% |
y |
|
ma |
60.0% |
59% |
3/3/24 |
1.00% |
y |
|
tx |
77.8% |
79% |
3/3/24 |
-1.20% |
y |
|
nc |
73.8% |
77% |
3/3/24 |
-3.20% |
y |
|
me |
72.9% |
77% |
2/19/24 |
-4.10% |
y |
|
co |
63.5% |
68% |
3/3/24 |
-4.50% |
y |
|
tn |
77.3% |
83% |
3/3/24 |
-5.70% |
y |
|
ok |
81.8% |
88% |
2/4/24 |
-6.20% |
y |
|
mn |
69.1% |
79% |
2/28/24 |
-9.90% |
y |
|
vt |
45.9% |
61% |
2/19/24 |
-15.10% |
y |
U of NH poll: "Biden, Trump, Running Away With State Delegates". |
Good one, VT. Ok, everyone who didn’t have a polling failure, raise your hand.
Trump under-performed the polling average for everyone else by about 1%, from his 8% better-than-expected in VA to his 10% bad-haircut in MN. We can throw VT in there and make his average 2% worse than expected. Not as far off as I’d have guessed.
If you add the other states voting so far:
az |
78.8% |
75% |
2/4/24 |
3.80% |
|
|
fl |
81.2% |
85% |
3/4/24 |
-3.80% |
|
|
ga |
84.5% |
83% |
2/4/24 |
1.50% |
|
|
ia |
51.0% |
52% |
1/14/24 |
-1.00% |
|
|
il |
80.6% |
78% |
2/4/24 |
2.60% |
|
|
la |
89.8% |
91% |
2/4/24 |
-1.20% |
|
|
mi |
68.1% |
76% |
2/24/24 |
-7.90% |
|
|
nh |
54.3% |
60% |
1/22/24 |
-5.70% |
|
|
ny |
82.0% |
64% |
2/14/24 |
18.00% |
|
|
oh |
79.2% |
83% |
3/10/24 |
-3.80% |
|
|
sc |
59.8% |
59% |
2/23/24 |
0.80% |
|
|
wa |
76.4% |
77% |
2/23/24 |
-0.60% |
|
|
wi |
79.2% |
76% |
2/4/24 |
3.20% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ak |
0.876 |
not avail. |
|
|
y |
|
ar |
76.9% |
old |
9/7/23 |
|
y |
|
cn |
77.9% |
not avail. |
|
|
|
|
hi |
97.1% |
not avail. |
|
|
|
|
id |
84.9% |
not avail. |
|
|
|
|
ks |
75.5% |
old |
2/16/23 |
|
|
|
mo |
note |
86% |
2/4/24 |
|
|
state delegates 100% |
ms |
92.7% |
old |
8/28/23 |
|
|
|
nd |
84.4% |
not avail. |
|
|
|
|
nv |
99.1% |
old |
1/8/23 |
|
|
|
ri |
84.5% |
old |
9/13/22 |
|
|
|
What the heck happened in NY? 82% of the vote, with 64% predicted.
If we keep VT in the averages, I guess we have to keep NY as well. Altogether, that’s Trump with over 99% of the vote the polls said he would have (0.82% off). Let that sink in. They’re not all that inaccurate. The failures and gains, as a group anyway, basically cancel each other, up to now.