7,000+ Russian tanks have been destroyed since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Moscow has sharply increased defense spending from 2022 to 6% of national GDP in its 2024 budget.
There are many loud explosions at Morozovsk Air Base in Russia, located 300km from the front in Ukraine.
NATO's coordinating, training & planning capabilities will now be used to help Ukraine.
- Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov claimed that NATO and Russia are in “direct confrontation,” likely as part of ongoing Kremlin efforts to intensify existing information operations meant to force the West into self-deterrence.
- Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov appealed to Commonwealth of Independent State (CIS) members to increase cooperation against perceived Western threats as part of the effort to posture against the West.
- The Kremlin leveraged this overall information operation about escalation with NATO to target France specifically, following French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent calls for the West to expand the level and types of security assistance it sends to Ukraine.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also promoted information operations feigning interest in negotiations, and Lavrov’s and Shoigu’s likely coordinated informational efforts may signal a new round of intensified Russian rhetoric about negotiations.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin continues attempts to balance the Kremlin’s opposing efforts to set social expectations for a protracted Russian war effort and to assuage Russian society’s concerns about the economic consequences of the war and labor migration.
- Russian forces conducted a roughly reinforced company-sized mechanized assault towards Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) on April 4 and advanced up to the eastern outskirts of the settlement.
- Russian forces also recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Donetsk City.
- An unspecified senior NATO official reportedly told Russian opposition news outlet Vazhnye Istorii that NATO intelligence agencies have not observed indications that Russia is preparing for a large-scale partial mobilization wave.
reports that numerous explosions have occurred at the RU airbase at Morozovsk, located 300km from the front. Over 60 explosions have been noted. The base is home to thirty-six Su-34 and four Su-24 strike fighters.
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces conducted a roughly reinforced company-sized mechanized assault towards Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) on April 4 and advanced up to the eastern outskirts of the settlement. Geolocated footage published on April 4 shows Russian forces conducting a roughly reinforced company-sized mechanized assault against Chasiv Yar.[32] The footage indicates that the Russian mechanized column advanced along a section of the T-0506 (Khromove-Chasiv Yar) highway to the eastern outskirts of the Kanal micro-district (the easternmost part of Chasiv Yar) before Ukrainian forces prevented Russian forces from making further advances into Chasiv Yar.[33] A Ukrainian soldier stated that Ukrainian forces destroyed 11 out of the 25 Russian armored vehicles that participated in the mechanized assault, although Ukrainian officials have yet to provide more details on the assault.[34] Russian forces are currently increasing the tempo and size of their mechanized assaults throughout eastern Ukraine and may be intensifying the overall tempo of their offensive operations in Ukraine.[35] Russian forces conducted a battalion-sized mechanized assault near Tonenke (west of Avdiivka) around March 30 and a roughly reinforced platoon-sized mechanized assault near Terny (west of Kreminna) around April 3, and the size of these recent mechanized assaults may indicate that the Russian military is currently prioritizing offensive operations in the order of the Avdiivka, Bakhmut, and Lyman directions[36]
Russian forces recently advanced elsewhere northeast and west of Bakhmut amid continued positional fighting in the area. Geolocated footage published on April 4 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced north of Vesele (northeast of Bakhmut).[37] Geolocated footage published on April 3 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Berestove (northeast of Bakhmut) and also seized a large portion of southern Ivanivske (west of Bakhmut).[38]...Positional fighting continued northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, and Spirne; northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka; west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske and Stupochky; and southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.[40] Elements of the Russian 98th Airborne (VDV) Division are reportedly operating on Chasiv Yar’s eastern outskirts.[41]
Positional fighting continued west of Avdiivka on April 4. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced up to 830 meters in depth southeast of Umanske (west of Avdiivka) and up to 600 meters in depth near Semenivka (west of Avdiivka).[42] ... Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces are partially withdrawing from Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka), Semenivka, and Pervomaiske (southwest of Avdiivka), although ISW has not observed any evidence of Ukrainian withdrawals from these areas…. Positional fighting also occurred west of Avdiivka near Yasnobrodivka and southwest of Avdiivka near Nevelske.[46] The spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Avdiivka direction stated that Russian forces are trying to advance in the area as long as weather conditions allow, likely referring to ground conditions that will become less conducive to mechanized maneuver as spring progresses and the ground becomes muddier.[47]
Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn stated on April 4 that Russian forces conducted mechanized assaults near Tonenke with up to 50 armored vehicles between March 29 and 31.[48] Voloshyn stated that the Russian mechanized assaults occurred over several days and that Russian forces conducted more than one assault.[49] Ukrainian forces repelled a roughly battalion-sized Russian mechanized assault near Tonenke on March 30 and destroyed at least 12 Russian tanks and eight infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs).[50] Voloshyn’s reporting suggests that Russian forces conducted a larger mechanized tactical offensive effort in the area than initially reported but that the assaults did not all occur at once. A Russian Storm-Z instructor similarly claimed on April 1 that the mechanized assault occurred in multiple waves over several days.[51]