Unlike our scheduled canvasses in Las Vegas, the weather for Hope Springs from Field PAC volunteers in Arizona last Saturday was perfect. Even with Easter approaching, they were eager to get started. Sometimes, we go into Saturday with news that really pumps people up, and sometime we find that volunteers need to get pumped up. Which is fine.
But this Saturday, the last Saturday in March, with so many wanting to collect signatures for the Right to Abortion Initiative, there seemed to be a collective “let’s just get on with it” tenor to pre-canvassing training. I wouldn’t say impatient, because we remind volunteers that there are people here that have never collected signatures at the door before.
Experienced volunteers will always grumble about the time spent on training. But with circulating petitions, it is important that we get everything right. So we remind everyone that the details matter. 383,923 valid signatures from Arizonan voters need to be gathered by July 3rd. And, like in the other states, we want to collect more than we need, because no matter what kind of verification we do, some will always be knocked off. The goal isn’t just to get on the ballot, we are trying to build support (and collect data) for the amendment, as well.
Abortion is restricted after 15 weeks in the Grand Canyon State, with exceptions for medical emergencies. The state Supreme Court has also been asked to reinstate a near-total ban, and courts are litigating a law that criminalizes a doctor for performing an abortion sought solely because of a genetic abnormality, according to the state attorney general.
This month, Hope Springs volunteers collected 39,102 verified petitions from valid voters who lived at the address from which they were registered. But, as those who have been reading my diaries about Ohio may remember, that’s not where it ends. We have a database of voters who signed the petitions our volunteers circulated. Voters who signed one of our volunteers’ petitions will now receive “thank you” postcards or notes for signing and, thereafter, received follow-up communications to verify their support of the Right to Abortion Initiative. These are important because we shouldn’t assume that someone supports something just because they signed a petition to get it on the ballot. There are voters out there who will sign anything, for numerous reasons (just as there are voters who won’t sign anything!), but generally because they believe Arizonans deserve a vote, a choice, a voice on the issue at hand.
But these are also “hero” (or heroine) communications. We did it, and you were essential in that accomplishment! We want to remind these 39,102 that they signed the petition, that they can take ownership of getting it on the ballot. In the euphoria, we want to get them committed to voting for the amendment in November, which means committed to turning out to vote.
This allows us to add the voter to our single issue database. Everything we do is directed at GOTV (Get-Out-the-Vote). Early Organizing allows us to be that pro-active, to continue to expand our knowledge of the electorate to help elect Democrats and win votes for the things the grassroots supports.
When the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade in 2022, after nearly 50 years of guaranteeing a constitutional right to abortion, Arizona was plunged into legal uncertainty while state officials and the courts vied over two different abortion bans. The state appeals court eventually ruled that a 15-week gestational ban, with no exceptions for rape or incest, should be the law of the land. But that ruling is now in limbo, as the Arizona Supreme Court mulls whether to reinstate a near-total ban from 1864 that prohibits all abortions except for those to save the woman’s life and punishes doctors with 2 to 5 years in prison.
Reproductive rights advocates hope the abortion initiative will serve to nullify those restrictions, and stave off future threats from the Republican-majority legislature that has repeatedly attempted to pass fetal personhood laws.
If approved by voters, the initiative would establish abortion as a fundamental right of all Arizonans, and bar any law or policy from enacting restrictions on the procedure that aren’t made with the intent of protecting the patient. Much like the standard baked into Roe, the Arizona proposal would guarantee abortion access up to the point of fetal viability, which is generally considered to be between 23 to 24 weeks of gestation. It also includes an exception that allows for abortions beyond that point if the woman’s health care provider deems it necessary to protect her life, physical or mental health.
And state officials would be prohibited from punishing anyone for helping a woman obtain an abortion.
But the Right to Abortion Initiative is not the only thing driving volunteers to canvass on a beautiful Saturday. Arizona is the only state where there’s a broad consensus that it’s a toss-up state in both the Electoral College and the (now open) Senate race. Our volunteers and organizers there have set a goal for themselves of 1 Million Doors Knocked before Labor Day. We’ve already knocked on more than 32% of the households in the state, and hope to increase that, as well.
233 volunteers came out to knock on doors for our final canvass of March in the eastern and southern suburbs of Phoenix and east of Tucson (in the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th Congressional Districts).
As of this date, Ruben Gallego remains the likely Democratic nominee but the Statutory Filing Period continues until April 8, 2024. So it is possible (but not probable) that another Democrat could file to run for this (now) open seat.
In the U.S. Senate election, 44% of voters support Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego, while 40% support Republican Kari Lake in a potential November U.S. Senate election. Sixteen percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Gallego’s support increases to 51%, and Lake to 49%.
Hope Springs volunteers knocked on 17,078 doors on Saturday. Volunteers talked to 1,241 voters, and 778 voters answered questions from at least part of the Issues Survey.
Economic Uncertainty was the Number 1 issue for the Arizonans we talked to on Saturday, with several voters wondering when their grocery prices will “return to normal.” Elections and Electoral Security was the #2 issue voters raised. Border Security was third.
Among the Arizonans we talked to Biden’s Job Approval was at 41%; 9% expressed some measure of Disapproval (this is half what we found the first week). 11% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Sinema was doing while 36% expressed Disapproval. If you don’t realize it, Sinema’s approval rating has risen (sharply) and disapproval rating fallen since she announced her retirement. There seemed to be a little bit of bitterness attached before she did so.
It is important to remember that we are knocking on the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters. We also ask about whether voters Approve of likely Democratic nominee Ruben Gallego. 52% of the voters we talked to had a positive impression of the Congressman, and there were voters who mention Gallego’s experience as a Marine. So his story is getting out there. 52% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. Hobbs was doing a good job, 7% said they disapproved of the job she was doing.
Hope Springs from Field PAC started knocking on doors again on March 2nd, in a grassroots effort to prepare the 2024 Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are talking to Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up), GOTV and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
We registered 3 new voters and re-registered 17 voters who updated their addresses (or updated their voter registration to participate in the Active Early Voting List — the latter usually skews the number higher). We differentiate between the new voters and re-registering voters because brand new voters are often ignored by campaigns and we hope to compensate for that somewhat by having volunteers send them post cards before the election and they will also receive robocalls thanking them for registering.
In Arizona, we had 33 voters fill out Constituent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with some really, really onerous new voter regulations, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.
We are also — this being an election year — adding the Post Cards to New Voters component back into our Voter Outreach, both New Voters we find at their doors as well as New Voters we target in the Voter File. Several of our Arizona organizers are also talking to Native American groups about replicating our Voter Matching service that Hope Springs provides for Black Churches. This is really dependent upon the Native American tribes, though. It’s a big year. There’s lots to be done, and, hopefully, we won’t have to suspect in-person voter contact because of a heatwave this year.
Our biggest expense is the Voter File. But it is also a fixed cost. That won’t change as we raise and spend more money. Printing literature is our second largest cost. Printing and mailing our our Post Cards to New Voters is our third cost and paying the fees for ActBlue is the smallest of our monthly costs.
Hope Springs is a seat-of-the-pants grassroots-driven operation. We don’t have employees but we realize that to formalize and professionalize this effort that will have to change.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!