Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted one of the largest series of drone strikes against military facilities within Russia, targeting at least four Russian airbases, on the night of April 4 to 5.
Massive Russian strikes on energy and Ukrainian cities are part of Russia’s campaign to prepare for a major summer offensive, Ukrainian President’s Chief-of-Staff, Andriy Yermak, said.
Ukrainian media reported that sources within Ukrainian security services, including the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), stated that the SBU and Ukrainian forces conducted successful strikes on airfields near Kursk City and Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai; the Engels Airbase in Saratov Oblast; and the Morozovsk Airbase in Rostov Oblast.[1]
These Ukrainian security sources reportedly stated that the Ukrainian drone strikes significantly damaged three Tu-95MS strategic bombers at Engels airbase, damaged two Su-25 fixed-wing aircraft at the airbase near Yeysk, and destroyed six unidentified aircraft and significantly damaged another eight unidentified aircraft at the Morozovsk Airbase.[2] The Ukrainian strikes reportedly killed four Russian military personnel at the airbase near Yeysk and seven Russian personnel at the Engels Airbase and wounded and killed up to 20 Russian personnel at the Morozovsk Airbase.[3] Geolocated footage shows explosions and Russian air defenses activating near all the airbases except for the one near Yeysk.[4] ISW has not yet observed any visual confirmation that Ukrainian forces damaged or destroyed aircraft or infrastructure at any of the airbases. Satellite imagery collected on April 4 indicates that there were three Tu-160 heavy strategic bombers, five Tu-95 strategic bombers, an Il-76 transport aircraft, and a Tu-22 bomber at Engels Airbase; ten L-39 training and combat aircraft, five An-26 transport aircraft, an An-74 transport aircraft, an An-12 transport aircraft, four Su-27 fixed-winged aircraft, four Su-25 fixed-wing aircraft, one Su-30 fixed-wing aircraft, and several Ka-52 and Mi-8 helicopters at the Yeysk Airbase; and 29 fixed-wing aircraft, primarily Su-34s, at the Morozovsk airfield.[5] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces intercepted 44 drones over Rostov Oblast, six drones over Krasnodar Krai, and a drone each in Saratov, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts on the night of April 4 and into the morning on April 5.[6] Ukrainian drone strikes have typically only targeted individual airbases within Russia, and Ukraine’s ability to strike four separate airbases in one strike series represents a notable inflection in the capabilities that Ukrainian forces are employing in their campaign against Russian military infrastructure, critical infrastructure, and strategic industries within Russia.
Russian forces conducted missile and drone strikes against Ukraine overnight on April 4 to 5 and during the day on April 5. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched two S-300/S-400 air defense missiles and three Iskander-M missiles from Belgorod Oblast and 13 Shahed 136/131 drones from occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea, overnight.[72] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down all 13 Shahed drones. Ukrainian authorities reported that two S-300 missiles struck Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, and that strikes also damaged energy infrastructure in Odesa Oblast overnight.[73] The Ukrainian National Police reported that Russian forces conducted two separate missile strikes against Zaporizhzhia City during the day on April 5; Russian forces launched three missiles at a residential building and then launched two additional missiles a short time later after emergency services arrived at the impact site.[74] Russian forces conducted similar ”double tap” missile strikes against Kharkiv City on April 4 and Odesa City on March 15.[75]
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- Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted one of the largest series of drone strikes against military facilities within Russia, targeting at least four Russian airbases, on the night of April 4 to 5.
- The recently intensified tempo of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine will likely result in increased manpower and materiel losses, but the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be successfully mitigating these losses.
- Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal indicated that Ukraine is starting to staff new units, but that Ukraine needs further Western military assistance to properly equip them.
- Shmyhal also reported that Russian missile and drone strikes have damaged or disrupted roughly 80 percent of electricity generation at Ukrainian thermal power plants (TPPs) in recent weeks, as Russian forces continue to exploit the degraded Ukrainian air defense umbrella in an effort to collapse Ukraine’s energy grid.
- Ukrainian officials continue to warn that Russian forces are systematically and increasingly using chemical weapons and other likely-banned chemical substances in Ukraine.
- An unattributed drone reportedly struck a military unit in the pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway republic of Transnistria on April 5 amidst an assessed ongoing Kremlin hybrid operation aimed at destabilizing Moldova from within.
- Russia reportedly has conducted thousands of cyber-attacks against Czechia’s rail transport infrastructure and that of other European states as part of a broader effort to degrade NATO members’ transport logistics since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
- Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amidst ongoing positional fighting along the entire line of contact on April 5.
- Russia’s defense industry continues to mobilize to meet the Russian military’s needs in Ukraine.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on April 4 that Russia will open two youth centers aimed at indoctrinating Ukrainian youth into Russian culture and historical narratives in occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts in the near future.
Russian forces reportedly advanced northeast of Bakhmut on April 5, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. ...The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Spirne (northeast of Bakhmut).[46] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that elements of the Russian 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic [LNR] Army Corps [AC]) with support from elements of the 106th VDV Division have advanced near Vyimka (northeast of Bakhmut) and are attempting to advance near Spirne.[47]
Russian forces appear to have intensified their efforts west of Bakhmut to seize Chasiv Yar. …. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces in Kanal are about 1.2 kilometers from the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal, although ISW has only observed visual evidence of Russian forces about 1.4 kilometers from the canal.[50] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced south of Kanal near the Stupki-Holubivske-2 nature reserve and are near the eastern outskirts of the Novyi micro-district (southwest of Kanal and across the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal), with one Russian source claiming that elements of the Russian 11th VDV Brigade are approaching Chasiv Yar from the south.[51] ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these various Russian claims of advances, however. The Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces on April 5 denied reports that Russian forces breached Chasiv Yar.[52] A Russian source claimed that fighting assumed a positional nature on April 5 following Russian advances and subsequent Ukrainian counterattacks on the night of April 4-5.[53] ...A Russian source claimed that Russian forces may try to avoid crossing the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal by advancing to the area where the canal runs underground for a 750-meter stretch north of Chasiv Yar near Kalynivka.[55] ... The commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating in the Bakhmut direction stated that Russian forces have started a new wave of assaults in the Bakhmut direction.[57] The commander stated that Russian forces are concentrating their efforts on the Chasiv Yar area and are continuing to storm Ivanivske as part of efforts to flank Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar. The commander stated that Russian control of Ivanivske has fluctuated between 40 and 60 percent for the past three weeks.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances during a roughly reinforced platoon-sized mechanized assault with dismounted infantry near Avdiivka. Geolocated footage published on April 5 indicates that Russian forces advanced within southern Semenivka (northwest of Avdiivka) while conducting a roughly reinforced platoon-sized mechanized assault.[60] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces also advanced near Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka), but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[61] The Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces posted footage on April 4 of a roughly platoon-sized Russian mechanized assault near Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka) and reported that Ukrainian forces repelled the attack.[62] Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued northwest of Avdiivka near Berdychi, west of Avdiivka near Umanske and Yasnobrodivka, and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske.[63] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are struggling to hold their positions in Semenivka and Berdychi due to superior Ukrainian drone capabilities.[64]