"In order to completely close Ukraine, we need 25 PATRIOT systems with 6-8 batteries in each or analogues", — Zelensky
The departure of Victoria Nuland points the same way to a war of attrition Ukraine could not win without NATO intervention.
BILD published a speculative map that suggests territorial losses of Ukraine up to 2026.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that Ukraine does not have enough materiel to contest the battlefield initiative. Zelensky stated during an interview aired on April 6 that Ukrainian forces currently do not have enough ammunition to initiate and sustain future counteroffensive operations and reiterated that Ukrainian forces are currently using drones to partially compensate for artillery ammunition shortages across the theater.[1] Zelensky stressed that Ukraine must conduct countermeasures to deprive Russian forces of the ability to prepare and conduct significant offensive efforts and not only rely on defensive operations. Zelensky stated that striking Russian force concentrations is one such countermeasure but that Ukrainian forces lack long-range weapons to strike Russian force concentrations and other targets necessary to undermine Russian operations.
Zelensky’s statement suggests that Ukrainian forces are now having to make difficult decisions about prioritizing certain aspects of its defense over constraining Russian military capabilities or preparing for counteroffensive operations.[3] The New York Times similarly reported on April 5 that Ukrainian forces are close to running out of some types of munitions and that Ukrainian officials have observed a five-to-one Russian artillery advantage throughout the frontline.[4] Ukrainian soldiers reportedly told the New York Times that Ukrainian forces currently have enough cluster munitions that are effective at repelling Russian infantry assaults but are low on high-explosive artillery shells needed to repel mechanized assaults.[5]
Zelensky stressed that additional Western security assistance is necessary for Ukrainian forces to effectively defend Ukraine’s airspace against the intensified Russian strike campaign and increased Russian aviation operations along the frontline.
Zelensky warned that if Russian forces sustain the tempo of their current missile and drone strikes then Ukraine will likely lack the air defense missile stocks needed to protect Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure.[7] Russian forces appear to be exploiting Ukraine’s already degraded air defense umbrella in an attempt to collapse Ukraine’s energy grid, likely in an effort to constrain Ukraine’s long-term defense industrial capacity.[8] Russian missile and drone strikes have consistently pressured Ukraine’s limited air defense and have forced Ukraine to make difficult decisions about providing air defense coverage between large population centers in the rear and active areas of the frontline.[9] Sparse and inconsistent air defense coverage along the front has likely facilitated Russia’s intensification of guided and unguided glide bomb strikes, which Russian forces used to tactical effect in their seizure of Avdiivka in mid-February 2024.[10]
www.criticalthreats.org/...
PARIS — As a parting gift of wisdom to the alliance he has led since 2014, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is pushing a $100 billion package seen as a move to “Trump-proof” military aid for Ukraine over five years.
If the idea is workable, it could help Kyiv withstand Russia’s onslaught. Yet it leaves unanswered the critical question of how Europe will assure its own security in the face of Moscow’s mounting aggression.
Stoltenberg’s proposal, which might be finalized when NATO meets for its 75th anniversary summit in Washington this summer, reflects Europe’s waking realization that Donald Trump could regain the White House. The former president opposes a new U.S. aid package for Ukraine that has been stalled in Congress for months.
Stoltenberg wants to shift the West’s current, relatively uncoordinated flow of weapons and munitions to NATO’s control to protect Kyiv from “the winds of political change,” according to the Financial Times. Major issues remain, including whether all 32 NATO member states are onboard — notably Hungary, where Prime Minister Viktor Orban has resisted backing Ukraine.
www.washingtonpost.com/...
- The Ukrainian military launched a swarm of drones at the Morozovsk airbase, which it claimed destroyed six Russian warplanes, significantly damaged eight other jets, along with killing or injuring 20 members of the Russian military base. Russia said its air defences downed 53 Ukrainian drones – the majority of which targeted the southern Rostov region – and only a power substation was damaged.
- An overnight Russian drone strike on Kharkiv killed six people and wounded 11 others, according to officials in Ukraine’s second largest city. Ukraine said Iranian-made Russian drones carried out the attack, hitting multiple high-rise buildings, dormitories and a petrol station.
- Pro-Russian separatists in Moldova claimed that an explosive drone hit a military base under their control close to the Ukrainian border, targeting a radar station that suffered minor damage. They did not directly blame Ukraine.
- The Russian Ministry of Defence claimed that its troops managed to take control of the settlement of Vodiane in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. Russian state media also said soldiers entered the suburbs of Chasiv Yar near Bakhmut.
- At least three people were killed and 13 wounded after Russia fired five missiles on Ukraine’s southern city of Zaporizhzhia, the regional governor said.
- US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned of “significant consequences” for China if its companies provide material support for Russia in its war against Ukraine.
- The Kremlin slammed a claim by French President Emmanuel Macron that Russia is attempting to sabotage the Paris Olympics through a disinformation campaign, calling it “wholly unfounded”.
- British Foreign Secretary David Cameron is expected to visit the United States next week in order to persuade Republican politicians to approve a $60bn package of aid for Ukraine that they have delayed in the US Congress for months.
- Japan is adding 164 new industrial products to the list of items that it is banning from being exported to Russia. The items include lithium-ion batteries, vehicle engine oil, gas pipes and optical equipment.
- Russia’s Investigative Committee has claimed that images on the phone of one of the suspects of the deadly attack on a concert hall near Moscow earlier this month contain pro-Ukraine data, including individuals in Ukrainian military attire.
- Lithuania’s Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte said the Baltic state would spend two million euros ($2.16m) to buy about 3,000 Lithuanian-made quadcopter drones for Ukraine, and would also help set up three recovery centres for Ukrainian soldiers.
www.aljazeera.com/…
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that Ukraine does not have enough materiel to contest the battlefield initiative.
- Zelensky stressed that additional Western security assistance is necessary for Ukrainian forces to effectively defend Ukraine’s airspace against the intensified Russian strike campaign and increased Russian aviation operations along the frontline.
- Zelensky cautioned that the arrival of all promised F-16 fighter jets from Ukraine’s Western partners in 2024 will provide Ukraine with only 10 percent of the fighter aircraft Ukraine would need to completely defeat Russian aviation and restore Ukraine’s ability to operate effectively in the air domain.
- Continued delays in US security assistance are specifically impacting the capabilities that Ukrainian forces need to respond to the increased tempo of Russian mechanized assaults in eastern Ukraine.
- The Kremlin explicitly threatened its long-term ally Armenia on April 5 over Armenian outreach to the West following Russia’s failure to prevent Armenia’s loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.
- The Russian MFA also continues to threaten Finland and claimed that Finland has “lost its independence in making foreign policy decisions” since its accession to NATO — a narrative that the Kremlin routinely used to falsely claim that NATO was controlling Ukraine and using Ukraine to threaten Russia.
- Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov announced on April 5 that 3,000 former Wagner Group personnel will join the Akhmat Spetsnaz unit following successful negotiations between Akhmat and Wagner commanders.
- Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin passed two laws on April 6, offering Russian society some concession for its sacrifices to support Russia’s war in Ukraine.
A Ukrainian military observer reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a T-72 tank jerry-rigged with several EW systems in an unspecified part of the front on April 5.[80] The Ukrainian military observer stated that the Russian tank, which was leading a column of armored vehicles during a mechanized assault, was able to completely disrupt all Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) drones in the area and that Ukrainian forces had to use a specialized fixed-wing drone with an additional terminal guidance system to strike the tank.[81] Russian forces are attempting to equip their armored vehicles with electronic warfare (EW) systems to protect them against Ukrainian drone strikes.