In the shadows of such epic battles as Lamont v. Lieberman, McKinney v. Johnson, and Jones-Reynolds v. Walters, another race looms north of the border for many of you (except Alaskans, Hawaiians and non-Americans): the race for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada. On December 3, about 6000 delegates will pile in to Montreal's Palais des congrès to select the new leader, who will face Stephen Harper in the next federal election (highly likely for 2007).
Other diarists have outlined their positions. This diary will discuss their chances at the convention.
There are several classes of delegates eligible to attend the convention. About 5100 will be chosen at the end of September. 900 are ex-officio delegates are eligible due to provisions in the party's constitution: current MPs and senators; constituency association presidents; defeated candidates in 2006; privy councillors (generally former cabinet members); and members of the party's executive. Over the past few months, they have been making declarations of support for different candidates. About a third of them have committed support so far (I've been keeping track). I have also weighted them, in order to account for regional bases of support).
Liberal leadership delegate count
Michael Ignatieff
Likely the front runner, but the count shows that he's not as ahead among ex-officio delegates as he might think. I would have paid money to see Belinda Stronach debate him. Money.
Delegates per cent: 25.7% (1st)
East: 34.4% (1st)
Quebec: 24.4% (2nd)
Ontario: 30.5% (1st)
West: 18.7% (2nd)
Bob Rae
Ignatieff's room mate at university, Rae is a former premier of Ontario (albeit of the New Democrats, a more solidly left-wing party).
Delegates per cent: 20.9% (2nd)
East: 18.9% (3rd)
Quebec: 43.9% (1st)
Ontario: 14.7% (4th)
West: 11.0% (5th)
Gerard Kennedy
Former Minister of Education for the Liberal government in Ontario, Kennedy (no relation) has strength in the West, which is where he was born and raised.
Delegates per cent: 18.9% (3rd)
East: 6.4% (5th)
Quebec: 7.3% (4th)
Ontario: 20.0% (2nd)
West: 32.2% (1st)
Stephane Dion
The only candidate from Quebec and a former Universite de Montreal prof, he was the Intergovernmental Affairs minister (aka the National Unity minister) during a rough time, and was recently the Environment minister. He appears to be a lot of potential delegates' "second choice".
Delegates per cent: 14.4% (4th)
East: 4.5% (6th)
Quebec: 17.1% (3rd)
Ontario: 13.7% (4th)
West: 16.6% (3rd)
Ken Dryden
Former Montreal Canadians goalie, he is likely the nicest guy running for leader. Likely the least flashy, too. His campaign the strongest in Manitoba.
Delegates per cent: 7.8% (5th)
East: 10.4% (4th)
Quebec: 2.4% (5th)
Ontario: 6.3% (5th)
West: 12.3% (4th)
Scott Brison
Former Progressive Conservative, Canada's first openly gay cabinet minister (as a Liberal) and the youngest candidate. He is the only candidate from the East. He seems to have attracted considerable support among the Aboriginal community.
Delegates per cent: 4.4% (6th)
East: 23.6% (2nd)
Quebec: -
Ontario: -
West: 4.3% (6th)
Joe Volpe
By far, Volpe has run the most controversy-ridden campaign, with donations from kids and his campaign chief quitting. He appears to have signed up a lot of new members, though.
Delegates per cent: 3.3% (7th)
East: -
Quebec: 2.4% (5th)
Ontario: 6.3% (5th)
West: 1.8% (7th)
Martha Hall Findlay
While she lingers near the bottom, Hall Findlay has done surprisingly well: she has never been elected to any office and is almost a complete unknown. She has impressed at the various debates. Likely for a cabinet job, if she sticks around until the Liberal win back power.
Delegates per cent: 1.6% (8th)
East: -
Quebec: -
Ontario: 3.2% (7th)
West: 1.8% (7th)
Carolyn Bennett
A medical doctor and former cabinet minister, Bennett is not expected to win. Again, she is likely just guaranteeing herself a spot in the next Liberal cabinet.
Delegates per cent: 1.3% (9th)
East: -
Quebec: 2.4% (5th)
Ontario: 2.1% (9th)
West: -
Maurizio Bevilacqua
Not a serious contender, the long term backbench MP has impressed delegates again, and is likely to get some financial-centered portfolio in the next Liberal government.
Delegates per cent: 1.3% (10th)
East: -
Quebec: 2.4% (5th)
Ontario: 2.1% (9th)
West: -
Hedy Fry
Having made an embarrassing accusation of burning crosses, Fry is likely just running to rehabilitate her image among party members, which she is doing. She is also the only candidate from the West.
Delegates per cent: 0.5% (11th)
East: -
Quebec: -
Ontario: -
West: 1.3% (9th)
The convention
Competitive, delegated conventions are (a) a hold over from a bygone era; and, (b) one of the only truly exciting things in politics anywhere. Not a "staged" convention like in America, delegated conventions can go on until the wee hours of the morning, and come-from-behind candidacies can live up to their name (see the Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty, who placed fourth on the first ballot and eventually won about a dozen hours later).
Who can grow? Bennett, Bevilacqua, Fry and Hall Findlay are likely to drop off or be forced off the ballot within one or two rounds. I can see Bevilacqua endorsing Ignatieff; Bennett perhaps with Kennedy. Fry and Hall Findlay are tougher to call, though Dion has many connections in British Columbia which may help with Fry.
Brison and Volpe are next: I can see Brison moving to Ignatieff. Volpe might do a jig or something. His campaign is so bizarre.
Then the more "serious" contenders will start dropping off. I have no idea who Dryden would endorse. On ideology, likely not Ignatieff. Conventions are funny things. If Ignatieff is too far away form 50%, Dryden will feel safer going to one of the three other front runners.
Dion, Kennedy and Rae, I can imagine, forming the anybody-but-Ignatieff team, each endorsing some of the others until only Ignatieff and one remain. I can see either Dion or Kennedy on the final ballot, depending on how things go in the next month.
For those readers unfamiliar with Canadian politics, I would highly recommend following the race closely. While not as glamorous or visceral as American politics, the subtleties of Canadian electioneering, I believe, are much for engaging.