The bulk of this diary was written for European Tribue so there are some references that you might not fully appreciate however it does bear some relevance to the US economy. In the SOTU, Bush identified a need to educate young people so that they become the skilled workers the economy will, he hopes, be reliant on. The findings of the EU report suggests that filling skills gaps by immigration is far faster and less of a threat to existing workers than might be presumed.
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The [European] Commission has today published a report on the effects of free movement of workers from the Accession countries (EU10) has come to some suprising conclusions.
Fears of hoards threatening the economies and increasing unemployment have proved dead wrong. In the three EU15 countries that allowed free movement from day 1, the stereotype Polish plumbers has been accompanied by other skilled workers filling the gaps for trained workers. Not just manual workers but, to continue the aliterative stereotype theme, the Slovak software supremos and the Croatian computer consultants have boosted the economies of Ireland, Sweden and the UK.
The conclusion reported in the
press release is dramatic
Countries that have not applied restrictions after May 2004 (UK, Ireland and Sweden) have experienced high economic growth, a drop of unemployment and a rise of employment. As to the 12 EU countries using transitional arrangements, where workers managed to obtain access legally, this has contributed to a smooth integration into the labour market. However, evidence suggests that some of these countries may also have faced undesirable side-effects, such as higher levels of undeclared work and bogus self-employed work
(The above link is to the English version of the press release. Links to the other language versions are on the page and links to the .pdf version of the full report in German, English and French are at the bottom of this link)
All this seems to have been achieved with remarkably little problem. There appears to be some grumbling in Ireland where the benefits system gives an allowance for children who have not yet joined their parent(s). While the strong religious feeling in, for example, Poland, might have helped those moving to Ireland be welcomed, Ireland used to be a particularly heterogeneous society. Now, in terms of percentages of the working population, the number of immigrant workers to Ireland is 15 times that of the USA. In Irelans about one in 22 is a foreign worker compared to one in over 300 in the USA. Projections in the BBC radio report are that if the current growth continues by mid century, over 20% of Irish workers will have been born abroad. That is in a country which traditionally was so poor and with such limited opportunities, the country's young had to emigrate to find work.
The written report on the BBC site indicates there are naysayers within the Commission:
The report is said to have caused divisions within the European Commission, with Industry Commissioner Guenter Verheugen and Foreign Relations Commissioner Benito Ferrero-Waldner - from Germany and Austria - battling to water it down.
Austria and Germany may be seeking to extend the trasitional arrangements to the latest date allowed by treaty. I wonder if in Germany's case (and pardon the stereotype) the competitive work ethic they bring might actually provide a "kick up the backside" to the "Easteners" who may still retain a hankering for the good old communist days of protected industries?
Certainly the Commissioners from Poland and Britain seem to think so, as Peter "Mandy" Mandleson said to the BBC:
Have courage - put away your fears. Be proud and take advantage of the sheer energy, dynamism and hard work that people from the new member states bring,"
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The question I suppose is whether the US economy required an injection of skills to revitalise it or if it is in irreverible decline. If the former, immigration of skilled workers while the existing workforce is trained up might be the answer.
There is though a different pattern in labor movement within the EU compared to the US. Far more of the latter is currently with the intention of permant settlement and "divorce" from the homeland. Obviously within the EU there is no need to change citixenship for example. It might be therefore that some form of temporary work permits, like the German "Guestworker" scheme, should be tried for the USA.