Continuing from
Yesterday's diary
Yesterday, we showcased the list of twenty-five countries that have (a) the fastest expected population growth over the next 10 years, and (b) are approaching or exceeding local water supply are at substantially increased risk of war.
Then we illustrated that this selected list of countries is almost exclusively populated by countries that are either in the midst of major civil or interstate war...or adjacent to such conflicts.
A question was raised by a peer offline -- Yeah, but does this apply only to the current context? Is this applicable, to other times, say, 1940?
Well, that depends on if you think it significant that Poland is at the top of the list for 1940, using this method, and that Germany, Italy, Japan, China, France, Britain and quite a few of the components of the former USSR show up on the same list.
Yeah, that got my attention, too.
Top 25 Water-scarce countries (regions, where formerly non-sovereign states), 1940-2000
I have found something very dark and terrible in this simple list; most war really is all about killing off rival tribes, before they gain sufficient numbers and resources to threaten, before they have no choice but to spill over their borders and threaten. Therefore, we hit them first.
It can be called Neoconservatism, but it is identical in all material consequence to the Nazi doctrine of Lebensraum.
Rank..1940.........1950.........1960.........1970.........1980..........1990..........2000..........
1.....Poland.......Singapore....Lebanon......Bahrain......Qatar.........Qatar.........Kuwait........
2.....Moldova......Mauritius....Korea, S.....S. Africa....UAE...........Jordan........Gaza Strip....
3.....Ukraine......Moldova......Israel.......Rwanda.......Saudi Arabia..Singapore.....Chad..........
4.....Cyprus.......Poland.......S. Africa....Libya........Bahrain.......Gaza Strip....Uganda........
5.....Cuba.........Trin. & Tob..Armenia......Algeria......Jordan........Yemen.........Eritrea.......
6.....Korea, S.....Lebanon......Singapore....Tunisia......Kuwait........Oman..........Mauritania....
7.....Tunisia......Ukraine......Mauritius....Singapore....S. Africa.....Saudi Arabia..Comoros.......
8.....Jamaica......S. Africa....Sri Lanka....Egypt........Oman..........Israel........Benin.........
9.....China........Cyprus.......China........Peru.........Rwanda........Bahrain.......Iraq..........
10....Slovakia.....Cuba.........Moldova......Morocco......Libya.........Nigeria.......Sudan.........
11....Spain........Korea, S.....Tunisia......Israel.......Algeria.......Libya.........Burkina Faso..
12....Japan........Tunisia......Cuba.........China........Kenya.........Kenya.........Syria.........
13....Belgium......Japan........Jamaica......Sri Lanka....Tunisia.......Algeria.......Afghanistan...
14....Denmark......Spain........Ukraine......Thailand.....Zimbabwe......UAE...........Burundi.......
15....France.......Denmark......Poland.......Korea, N.....Singapore.....Togo..........Ethiopia......
16....Netherlands..Belgium......Spain........Korea, S.....Egypt.........Tanzania......Tanzania......
17....Germany......France.......France.......Cyprus.......Peru..........Peru..........Djibouti......
18....Italy........Germany......Trin. & Tob..Mauritius....Morocco.......Egypt.........Togo..........
19....Greece.......Italy........Germany......Moldova......Lesotho.......Morocco.......Pakistan......
20....Czech Rep....Greece.......Denmark......Poland.......Israel........Lesotho.......Yemen.........
21....UK...........Czech Rep....Belgium......Jamaica......Uzbekistan....Tunisia.......Philippines...
22....Portugal.....UK...........Japan........Cuba.........Dom. Rep......Ghana.........El Salvador...
23....Lithuania....Portugal.....Cyprus.......Trin. & Tob..India.........S. Africa.....Tajikistan....
24....Belarus......Belarus......Italy........Armenia......Haiti.........India.........Oman..........
25....Malta........Malta........UK...........Spain........China.........Djibouti......Kyrgyzstan....
Water scarcity, then and now
Simply put, the world had much more water to go around sixty years ago than it does today. And northern Europe is as well-watered a place on the planet as any.
However, there was where the population explosion began in earnest, and in the mid-20th century that surge in numbers was tapering off in the west and ramping up in the east of Europe, as well as in eastern Asia.
These were the regions most-pressed for resources of all sorts; between the World Wars, famine relief went not to Ethiopia, but to Belgium. It was in Europe that the press of numbers, with expectations of more, was felt most acutely.
Now that feeling is everywhere, as the world is three times more populous as it was at the dawn of the Second World War.
However, the press of numbers, the parched throat of thirst and the specter of cholera and fruitless wrath are clustered in the Middle East.
And there is where the armies go, where the Red Horseman marches anew.
Living Space, Revived
I am quite unsettled by what appears to be evidence one of the most explicit, unapologetic, unprincipled excuses for making war on others ever devised -- Lebensraum
Whether we condemn such naked aggression, to kill innocents so that there are not so many of them to kill later on, is not the point.
The point is that it occurs.
And that while there are aggressors on the list below, most of the countries indicated are either targets, or societies that are busily tearing themselves apart.
It places the events of World War II in a context -- yes, the Third Reich was barbaric, especially in that it saw why it wanted to make war against its rapidly-growing neighbors to the east -- to kill them, before it became impossible to do so -- and joyfully embraced the bloodthirsty cause.
It also says something about what motivates the current crop of aggressors in comparison.
The linkage is explicit. A simple ecological model describes most (but not all, I should caution) of the global battle space from 1940 through to the present time.
That we have come so far to come full circle is compounded by our willful ignorance, a collective refusal to recognize that we really are pre-empting a threat -- a threat decades in advance of its feared arrival, one that exists at the moment only in our leaders' minds.
Yet, as the Germans themselves found out, such pre-emptive action is midwife to one's greatest fears.
Despite years of paranoia, the Germans wound up with their enemies from the East occupying their very capital, ever a phone call away from nuclear devastation.
Whither, America, in this light?
It does not appear to be a good place toward which we are stumbling.