Anyone else see this blog post by Time Magazine's
Mike Allen?
Republican sources tell TIME that DeLay is leaning to another surprising move -- stepping aside and supporting a write-in candidate for his old seat.
A Republican official with first-hand knowledge of the deliberations by DeLay said he "more likely than not" will go that route, although he had not made a final decision. "With DeLay, you never know," the official said.
DeLay plans to make the announcement this week, the officials said.
As the post speculates, DeLay could either leave his name in place on the ballot, or he could voluntarily withdraw his name, leaving the GOP slot empty. (DeLay always had the right to do the latter, but this would have prevented the Republican Party of Texas (RPT) from naming a replacement candidate, which is why they went through the fiction of attempting to have him declared administratively ineligible due to his current Virginia residency.)
While the write-in candidate has not yet been chosen, the process would likely be similar to the one for the selection of a replacement for DeLay (and if you believed the GOP's filings in the court case which implied that this hadn't begun to get under way, I have a bridge to Galveston to sell you). Leading the pack, in all likelihood, would be current Sugar Land mayor David Wallace, who has the "benefit" not only of coming from DeLay's hometown, but also has significant name recognition in the district. His name has come up repeatedly as a potential successor to DeLay.
Speculation regarding this possibility has been floating around for some time now, and ramped up ever since the RPT's first major court defeat five weeks ago. And despite the early filing deadlines that govern most access to Texas ballots, potential write-ins still have until August 29 to apply for a spot on the ballot. See Texas Election Code:
§ 146.022. CANDIDATE'S NAME REQUIRED TO APPEAR ON LIST. A write-in vote may not be counted unless the name written in appears on the list of write-in candidates . . .
§ 146.023. DECLARATION OF WRITE-IN CANDIDACY REQUIRED. (a) To be entitled to a place on the list of write-in candidates, a candidate must make a declaration of write-in candidacy.
§ 146.025. FILING PERIOD. (a) A declaration of write-in candidacy must be filed not later than 5 p.m. of the 70th day before general election day . . .
I know what you're thinking: It does seem to subvert the whole idea of a "write-in" candidacy if a formal declaration must be filed, complete with
500 petition signatures, in order to be certified so that the candidates name can appear on an official list. But that's what Texas election law has to say about this, and with regard to DeLay, the TEC has served us pretty well so far in 2006. You want to change it, go talk to the Texas Legislature, and good luck with that.
Anyhow, the conventional wisdom in national GOP circles is that another Republican not directly connected to the corruption scandals should be able to win because they wouldn't have to deal with the baggage. Bilbray was successful in replacing Duke Cunningham (a/k/a Inmate Register Number 94405-198), and Bob Ney is clearly hoping that Joy Padgett can do the same. As noted in Allen's post,
"Lampson's best shot has always been against DeLay--Lampson's record is too liberal for a Republican district," a GOP official said, signaling the tack the party plans to take. An official close to DeLay said: "Nick Lampson would lose this race to a write-in candidate who had any name ID at all."
However, that may be wishful thinking.
Nick Lampson cannot be portrayed as a comparative lightweight like Francine Busby or Zach Space -- I don't mean to denigrate either one of them, but Lampson already brings four prior terms in the U.S. House to the table, and had over $2.1 million cash on hand as of June 30. (By way of comparison, DeLay had $640 thousand that hadn't yet been diverted to his legal defense fund, and Wallace had $157 thousand.) And while TX-22 is fairly solidly GOP-leaning, DeLay added thousands of extra Democratic voters to the district as part of the redistricting effort he sponsored, and most of those voters came from Lampson's former district.
According to Allen, some Republicans in Texas think that this gambit is a really stupid idea:
"This would be met with ridicule and scorn," said Bill Miller, a Republican consultant with close ties to the state's GOP legislative leadership. "This strategy would be like handing the seat to the Democrats on a silver platter," Miller said. "Tom Delay will be remembered for the craziest end to his political career."
Miller said it is arrogant to think voters will support a write-in gambit. "Anointing a candidate never works," Miller said. "Voters are likely to say, 'The hell with 'em' and write in their own name, their kid's name." Plus, if his name remained on the ballot, it is likely DeLay would attract some of the vote away from the write-in candidate.
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Miller warned that DeLay could jeopardize his ties to conservative Republicans if he adopted the write-in scenario.
Royal Masset, the former political director of the Republican Party of Texas, said DeLay's old district is still "winnable" by the GOP even with DeLay as the candidate, but a write-in campaign would be "a disaster."
At this stage though, DeLay and his allies are probably just about ready to toss a Hail Mary pass. After all, what more have they got to lose?
[Update: AP has a story which has been picked up nationally that does little more than confirm Allen's original post.
Dogged by scandal, former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay intends to withdraw as a candidate for Congress, a Republican strategist said today, a step that would allow the party to field a write-in candidate in hopes of holding his seat.
The development came one day after Texas Republicans lost a court battle in their bid to name a replacement candidate for DeLay on the November ballot.
The strategist described DeLay's intentions on condition of anonymity, saying the former majority leader intended to make his own announcement.
Note that the language here just says
"intends to withdraw", not that DeLay actually has withdrawn. And in all probability, the anonymous source cited by AP is the same Republican official mentioned by Allen.]